Behavioral epidemiology and social area analysis: The study of blackout looting

This article describes the use of social area analytic techniques in the study of the looting which occurred during the Con Edison power failure of July 13 and 14, 1977. Detailed procedures are outlined of the systematic collection and analysis of data which were developed from available data. Analyses contrasting competing explanatory theoretical models for blackout looting are presented. The central dependent variable is ratio of looted to retail stores. Both the numerator and denominator are aggregated to the census tract level.     

An expectational view of consumer spending prospects

While the path of the economy clearly depends on a lot more than the behavior of consumers, the latter is surely one of the key influences on the former. After all, consumer spending counts for about two-thirds of the total (more if consumer investments in owner-occupied housing are included), and postwar business cycle movements in the U.S. have typically been foreshadowed by significant changes in consumer spending, particularly for automobiles and houses. Thus, whether the economy will be proceeding along at reasonably satisfactory growth rates, sliding into recession, or accelerating into renewed expansion will be heavily influenced by what consumers do.     

Developmental trends in program evaluation

It is suggested that the ontogeny of program evaluators replicates the phytogeny of the profession of program evaluation. A trend across the purposes of program evaluation from program amelioration to program advocacy and ultimately to program accountability is projected.     

A user-focused model for the utilization of evaluation

It is proposed that the present low level of utilization of evaluation findings is traceable in part to their failure to address directly the information needs of a clearly specified decision maker. An alternative model proceeding from such specification is proposed here, with evaluation closely interwoven with the on-going innovation process. The model suggests a number of implications for the organizational role of evalutors, for the design of evaluations, and for directions for methodological development. In particular, we suggest that evaluation designs be assessed against possible “threats to utility” as well as against the traditional “threads to validity.”     

武器装备建设管理信息集成化问题研究

提高国防实力必须加强武器装备建设,武器装备建设管理信息集成化是实现武器装备现代化建设的有效途径。本文介绍了武器装备建设信息集成化的内涵及作用,分别阐述了CALS、SBA、VR、IMS等先进的装备建设信息集成化技术和方法,给出了建设武器装备信息集成化系统的建议。     

试论孔子学院的品牌塑造

作为汉语国际推广主要载体的孔子学院,从孵化阶段步入成长阶段,在世界各地的基本布局已初步形成。准确地定位,从而提升品牌形象和品牌价值,是孔子学院在海外站稳脚跟、实现可持续发展的关键。从英国文化协会、法国的法语联盟、德国的歌德学院等世界各主要语言推广机构的成功经验来看,品牌效应对语言传播具有积极影响。塑造孔子学院的品牌效应,必须从自身发展、外部环境和品牌价值三个方面入手,并注重质量、个性化、创新的品牌战略组合。     

伪蒙疆时期蒙古文化馆与蒙古文化研究所始末

本文就日伪时期建立的蒙古文化馆与蒙古文化研究所为蒙古文化的研究和促进所作的工作,给予客观公正的评价和肯定,并对文化馆及研究所的结构、馆藏、设备、出版物及职员简历,作了简要介绍。     

试析中泰文化交流新基点——孔子学院

泰国是中国的友好邻邦,中泰两国山水相依,交往源远流长。中泰两国之间的文化交流承继于两国间的友好交往而历史悠久,建交以后两国的文化交流更是日益活跃。近年来,两国文化交流更是采用一种全新的形式展开,即孔子学院,孔子学院作为推广语言文化的政府机构,在泰开展文化交流活动,形式多样,影响持久,深受泰国人民的喜爱和欢迎。成为中泰文化交流的一个新基点,对中泰文化交流和中泰两国间的关系发展发挥了积极的作用。     

"北京人文科学研究所"筹建始末——20世纪上半叶日本对华文化侵略之典型一例

"北京人文科学研究所"是日本政府利用"庚款"在华建立的研究机构,也是日本政府为了扩大在华势力而实施的"对支文化事业"在华活动的重要一环。中国文化人认清了日本政府的企图,坚决反对"对支文化事业"。围绕该研究所的建立,日本政府与中国的文化教育界产生了严重对立。双方产生矛盾的根本在于"庚款"的退还与否和使用方式。"北京人文科学研究所"是日本外务省为了能够顺利开展"对支文化事业"而设立的"文化"招牌,也是日本扩大在华势力、对华实施文化侵略的工具之一。