Simulated classical tests in multinomial probit models

This paper compares the application of different versions of the simulated counterparts of the Wald test, the score test, and the likelihood ratio test in one- and multiperiod multinomial probit models. Monte Carlo experiments show that the use of the simple form of the simulated likelihood ratio test delivers relatively robust results regarding the testing of several multinomial probit model specifications. In contrast, the inclusion of the Hessian matrix of the simulated loglikelihood function into the simulated score test and (in the multiperiod multinomial probit model) particularly the inclusion of the quasi-maximum likelihood theory into the simulated likelihood ratio test leads to substantial computational problems. The combined application of the quasi-maximum likelihood theory with the simulated Wald test or the simulated score test is not systematically superior to the application of the other versions of these two simulated classical tests either. Neither an increase in the number of observations nor in the number of random draws in the incorporated Geweke-Hajivassiliou-Keane simulator systematically lead to more precise conformities between the frequencies of type I errors and the basic significance levels. An increase in the number of observations only decreases the frequencies of type II errors, particularly regarding the simulated classical testing of multiperiod multinomial probit model specifications.     

情境模拟训练在高校思想政治课实践教学中的应用

情境模拟训练是高校思想政治理论课实践教学创新方法之一.它以能力培养为目标,以互动与创新教学、全真模拟为特征.情境模拟训练实施过程分五个步骤:理论讲授、培训、活动准备、实施、总结评价.要使情境模拟训练教学取得良好效果,教师必须有丰富的理论知识和实践技能,背景材料和情景必须具有实战性、趣味性和适当性,情境模拟训练贵精不贵多.     

水电工程投资风险分析及其应用研究

水电工程一般具有规模大、投资大的特点，一旦发生风险，造成的经济损失往往很大，因此，对风险的前期评估就显得尤为重要。在分析水电工程投资（费用）和效益构成的基础上，研究了水电工程投资风险变量之间的影响关系。以我国西南地区某水电工程为背景，结合专家经验对该工程进行风险因素辨识，在综合考虑总成本费用及税收等因素的基础上，运用模拟技术，将水电工程投资风险与财务指标相结合，对工程投资风险及其指标进行分析评价，进而为项目的科学决策提供依据。     

Evaluating the power of Minitab's data subsetting lack of fit test in multiple linear regression

Minitab's data subsetting lack of fit test (denoted XLOF) is a combination of Burn and Ryan's test and Utts' test for testing lack of fit in linear regression models. As an alternative to the classical or pure error lack of fit test, it does not require replicates of predictor variables. However, due to the uncertainty about its performance, XLOF still remains unfamiliar to regression users while the well-known classical lack of fit test is not applicable to regression data without replicates. So far this procedure has not been mentioned in any textbooks and has not been included in any other software packages. This study assesses the performance of XLOF in detecting lack of fit in linear regressions without replicates by comparing the power with the classic test. The power of XLOF is simulated using Minitab macros for variables with several forms of curvature. These comparisons lead to pragmatic suggestions on the use of XLOF. The performance of XLOF was shown to be superior to the classical test based on the results. It should be noted that the replicates required for the classical test made itself unavailable for most of the regression data while XLOF can still be as powerful as the classic test even without replicates.     

实用Box-Jenkins预测模型及应用

介绍 Box-Jenkins 的实用预测模型,并提出用随机模拟法模型的参数进行估计。与通常使用的最小二乘法相比,模拟法无需考虑初始值的选取,就能保证迭代过程的收敛性。整个程序的编制使用模块化结构,使预测者无需了解太多的这方面知识,就能方便地使用。在案例的预测过程中,只需进行几次人工干预,就能输出多种分析结果。     

网络对抗训练模拟系统的设计与实现

提高计算机网络对抗能力,是夺取信息优势和控制网络权的必要手段和途径;网络对抗训练模拟系统的建立有利于网络对抗人才的培养。研究和设计了一种网络对抗训练模拟系统,并从关键技术及其实现的角度讨论了相关子系统,包括交互式对抗训练模拟系统、对抗训练模拟支持软件系统、对抗训练模拟评估系统和对抗训练模拟信息库。该系统能够为网络对抗理论研究与对网络抗训练模拟提供一个良好的环境,具有十分重要的意义。     

Encouraging Creativity in the Social Work Classroom: Insights from a Qualitative Exploration

Creativity is vital to the learning process of social work students. Despite its importance, educators are still uncertain of ways to enhance creativity and translate it from classroom to practice. Therefore, this study examines social work student perspectives on ways to define creativity, infuse it into the classroom, and apply it as practitioners. This study qualitatively explores the open-ended insights of 37 social work students. Through an unguided semantic analysis and application of Kolb’s experiential learning theory, the following themes emerged: classroom, creativity, performance, activities, and ideas. These themes indicate that students believe that additional creative opportunities in their classrooms would eventually benefit them as practitioners. Further pedagogical emphasis on increasing student creativity through experiential learning activities would be beneficial.     

基于扭转振动的多步态移动装置的运动学建模

为了实现移动机器人多步态稳定运动,提出一种新型的利用自身的结构特性来设计移动装置的方法。通过对其 倒立的U型结构的设计,再分别对该移动装置滑、走、跑和跳4个步态进行运动学建模,最后利用ADAMS仿真实现了该 移动装置稳定的多步态的运动。然后根据仿真结果给出了各运动相在每个步态周期中的足地接触距离以及横梁质心位 移的变化情况,最后讨论了影响该移动装置多步态运动的因素,如机体与两腿的长度之比r、共振频率和电机转速等。 结果表明该移动装置实现了多步态的运动,对未来研究多步态移动机器人提供了理论基础。     

基于感知价值和参考群体的低碳旅游参与意愿测度与模拟路径

随着旅游者环境意识的不断增强,人们的消费行为对环境产生的影响也越来越受到关注。从低碳旅游感知价值和参考群体的影响作用出发,构建"90后"低碳旅游参与意愿的结构方程模型,并进行了假设的验证。研究结果表明:情感价值和社会价值对"90后"低碳旅游参与意愿具有显著的正向影响,而功能价值对这个年龄群体的低碳旅游参与意愿的显著正向影响在本文中未得到验证;主要参考群体(父母、亲戚)和次要参考群体(同学、朋友)虽然对"90后"低碳旅游参与意愿都正向影响显著,但次要参考群体的影响程度要高于主要参考群体的。研究认为,"90后"正不断成为消费的新生力量,在这个消费群体中推广低碳旅游得到的效用很重要,这种效用是从感知质量和期望绩效比较中以及短期和长期感知成本的降低中得到的。此外,发挥同学朋友的参考群体作用,也可以提高此类人群的低碳旅游参与意愿。     

转型与整合——90年代前期长篇小说叙事语境及策略

针对耦合非线性混沌振子复杂的动力学行为,本文将Duffing振子和Van der Pol振子进行耦合,建立了Duffing振子和Van der Pol振子的耦合模型。与单个振子相比,耦合Duffing振子和Van der Pol振子表现出了更加丰富的动力学特性,采用Simulink仿真的方法,通过不同策动力幅值、不同耦合系数、不同频率下耦合非线性振子的相图和庞加莱截面图分析了耦合非线性振子的动力学行为,研究了耦合振子对微弱周期信号的敏感性和对噪声的免疫力,并将此模型应用于微弱信号检测的研究中。