A weighted symmetric cointegration test

Weighted symmetric estimation is employed to develop a new test for cointegration. Using Monte Carlo simulation, the resulting test is shown to possess greater power than alternative existing tests.     

Poliovirus Surveillance by Examining Sewage Water Specimens: Studies on Detection Probability Using Simulation Models

Efficiency of environmental surveillance of poliovirus circulation was studied using simulation models. First, three transmission models were defined for describing different scenarios of poliovirus infections in a large unstructured population. Second, environmental factors, such as the total volume of the sewage network and losses of viruses, were modeled for computing the virus output at the sewage sampling site. Third, the effect of sampling and laboratory procedures was accounted for in the probability of detection, given the amount of polioviruses in a specimen. The simulation model can be used for theoretical assessments of the likely efficiency of environmental surveillance, compared with acute flaccid paralysis (AFP) surveillance. Under reasonable assumptions in a vaccinated population, the AFP surveillance can be outperformed if the poliovirus outbreak is not large. However, this depends on the assumed case-to-infection ratio and on the sampling frequency of the sewage water specimens. Increasing the latter will lead to a higher detection probability, which will further enhance the method based on environmental surveillance.     

证券交易模拟系统的设计与开发

结合高校课程教学的需要 ,对证券交易基本业务流程及模拟程序进行了分析 ,重点从网络结构设计、系统功能模块设计及各子系统的功能设计等几方面对自行设计开发的证券交易模拟交易系统进行了阐述 ,并选择模拟交易子系统进行了功能说明 ,最后对系统的开发方式与系统特点作了简要概括。从实际应用效果来看 ,完全达到了设计及使用要求     

仿人智能控制器的模糊自整定

仿人智能控制器（ＨＳＩＣ）是一类实时鲁棒的智能控制器，被成功用于不少工业过程，但在实际应用中，控制器参数的整定仍然依靠专家来进行，考虑到ＨＳＩＣ控制器参数与系统闭环响应过程特征参数之间的模糊关系，本文提出了一类基于模糊推理的参数自整定方法并用于温度对象的控制中，表明该方法是有效的。     

Bayes Analysis and Comparison of Accelerated Weibull and Accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders Models

Several models are proposed in the literature for modeling fatigue data resulting from materials subject to cyclic stress and strain. Accelerated Weibull and accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders distributions are most commonly used models. Whereas the accelerated Weibull model is easier compared to accelerated Birnbaum–Saunders, it fails to represent the situation equally well. The present article focuses on Bayes analysis of the two models and provides a comparison based on some important Bayesian tools. Model compatibility study using predictive simulation ideas is preceded by the said comparison. Throughout, the posterior simulations are carried out by Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure.     

Living Behind Dikes: Mimicking Flooding Experiences

Delta areas like the Netherlands are threatened by global climate change. Awareness is, however, rather low. Our research objective was to investigate whether coping responses to flooding risks could be enhanced in a virtual environment (VE). A laboratory experiment was conducted in which participants were exposed to a simulated dike breach and consequent flooding of their virtual residence. We tested the hypothesis that an interactive 3D flood simulation facilitates coping responses compared to noninteractive film and slide simulations. Our results showed that information search, the motivation to evacuate, and the motivation to buy flood insurance increased after exposure to the 3D flood simulation compared to the film and slide simulations. Mediation analyses revealed that some of these presentation mode effects were mediated by a greater sense of being present in the VE. Implications to use high‐end flood simulations in a VE to communicate real‐world flooding risks and coping responses to threatened residents will be discussed.     

Passenger Rail Security,Planning, and Resilience: Application of Network,Plume, and Economic Simulation Models as Decision Support Tools

We built three simulation models that can assist rail transit planners and operators to evaluate high and low probability rail‐centered hazard events that could lead to serious consequences for rail‐centered networks and their surrounding regions. Our key objective is to provide these models to users who, through planning with these models, can prevent events or more effectively react to them. The first of the three models is an industrial systems simulation tool that closely replicates rail passenger traffic flows between New York Penn Station and Trenton, New Jersey. Second, we built and used a line source plume model to trace chemical plumes released by a slow‐moving freight train that could impact rail passengers, as well as people in surrounding areas. Third, we crafted an economic simulation model that estimates the regional economic consequences of a variety of rail‐related hazard events through the year 2020. Each model can work independently of the others. However, used together they help provide a coherent story about what could happen and set the stage for planning that should make rail‐centered transport systems more resistant and resilient to hazard events. We highlight the limitations and opportunities presented by using these models individually or in sequence.     

The asymptotic distribution of a pivotal quantity for a capture-recapture model

A pivotal quantity for a capture-recapture model is introduced and used to construct an asymptotic confidence region for (ε,N), where ε is the capture efficiency and N is the population size. The true confidence levels of certain regions are obtained by simulation. Certain confidence regions for (ε,N) are drawn to show the size of the regions and to show how confidence limits for N depend on ε.     

创业能力情景模拟训练测评方法及系统研究

随着创业能力学习论逐渐被大家接受,创业者的创业能力如何训练提高和评价成为人们关注的焦点.通过资料综述确定成功创业者拥有的创业能力特征因子,即动机、品质、自我认知、价值观和深层次创业知识经验与技能,根据5种因子特征,在E-prime测评软件平台上分别采用内隐联想测试（IAT）、镶嵌图形测试和斯特鲁普效应测试（Stroop）,可以建立一种创业能力情景模拟综合测评方法,设计其测评系统程序.两组被试测评结果相关分析表明：创业动机不同的两组被试IAT测评分在置信度95％区间存在显著差异;创业能力不同的两组被试总测评分也存在显著差异.     

Bayesian estimation of multidimensional item response theory model using gibbs sampling

We propose Bayesian parameter estimation in a multidimensional item response theory model using the Gibbs sampling algorithm. We apply this approach to dichotomous responses to a questionnaire on sleep quality. The analysis helps determine the underlying dimensions.