The relationship between conflict events and commodity prices in Sudan

Though recent literature uncovers linkages between commodity prices and conflict, the causal direction of the relationship remains ambiguous. We attempt to contribute to this strand of research by studying the dynamic relationship of commodity prices and the onsets of conflict events in Sudan. Using monthly data ranging from January 2001 through December 2012, we identify a structural breakpoint in the multivariate time series model of prices of the three staple foods (sorghum, millet, and wheat) and conflict measure (number of conflict events) in September of 2011. Applying structural vector autoregression (SVAR) and linear non-Gaussian acyclic model (LiNGAM), we find that wheat price fluctuation is a root cause of conflict events in Sudan. We recommend several policy and programmatic suggestions structured toward production, subsidy, price regulation and support for rural farmers and consumers to stabilize commodity prices.     

Risk Assessment for Invasive Species

Although estimates vary, there is a broad agreement that invasive species impose major costs on the U.S. economy, as well as posing risks to nonmarket environmental goods and services and to public health. The domestic effort to manage risks associated with invasive species is coordinated by the National Invasive Species Council (NISC), which is charged with developing a science-based process to evaluate risks associated with the introduction and spread of invasive species. Various international agreements have also elevated invasive species issues onto the international policy agenda. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) Agreement establishes rights and obligations to adhere to the discipline of scientific risk assessment to ensure that SPS measures are applied only to the extent required to protect human, animal, and plant health, and do not constitute arbitrary or unjustifiable technical barriers to trade. Currently, however, the field of risk assessment for invasive species is in its infancy. Therefore, there is a pressing need to formulate scientifically sound methods and approaches in this emerging field, while acknowledging that the demand for situation-specific empirical evidence is likely to persistently outstrip supply. To begin addressing this need, the Society for Risk Analysis Ecological Risk Assessment Specialty Group and the Ecological Society of America Theoretical Ecology Section convened a joint workshop to provide independent scientific input into the formulation of methods and processes for risk assessment of invasive species to ensure that the analytic processes used domestically and internationally will be firmly rooted in sound scientific principles.     

家长式领导、冲突与高管团队战略决策效果的关系研究

本文以四川省78家企业371名高管团队成员为实证研究对象,探讨了CEO的家长式领导行为对高管团队战略决策效果的影响,以及团队冲突在其中的中介作用.同时,构建了包括家长式领导、认知冲突、情绪冲突和决策效果四个变量的概念模型,并提出相应的理论假设.通过结构方程模型的检验,表明CEO的德行领导和威权领导分别从正反两个方向对决策效果产生显著的影响,仁慈领导对决策效果没有显著的直接影响.德行领导主要通过认知冲突作用于决策效果,仁慈、威权领导则通过情绪冲突作用于决策效果.     

基于生态学的通讯设备制造业的技术创新种群演化分析

技术创新群是指行业内技术创新主体的集合.分析技术创新种群行为主要是研究行业内技术创新种群量的变化规律,以及行业内不同技术创新种群之间的演化关系.本文应用生态学的种群理论与分析方法,探讨了研究这一问题的方法,并进行了实例验证.     

Conflict Management of Cooperative Organizations in Contemporary Iran: A Review Analysis

Emergence of conflicts-of-interests and of disputes in organizations, especially within and among work team systems, is inevitable. Cooperatives are self-governing organizations with democratic characters aimed at meeting the members’ needs and promoting social equity. Yet, internal organizational conflicts arise as conflicts-of-interests develop. Such conflicts can cause serious damages to the parties involved as well as harm the reputation of cooperatives as social and economic entities that tend to pursue social justice and fair distribution of income in society. This paper addresses conflict management in contemporary cooperative organizations. It is based on a preliminary research performed on factors causing conflicts in various types of cooperatives in Iran by analyzing 253 complaints made in 224 housing, consumer, transportation, producer procurement, and credit cooperatives within the central province of Tehran. It also offers some suggestions to improve conflict management within cooperative organizations.

On the enumeration of rectangular (0, 1)-matrices

The construction and enumeration of (0, 1)-matrices with given line-sums is described for the rectangular cases often encountered in applications. Improved approximations are provided for the number of such matrices. Some new enumeration results for semi-regular bipartite graphs are included, and the related category of the quasi-semiregular bipartite graphs is recognized. The range of certain elements of products of a (0, I)-matrix is considered as a function of the line-sums. This, in turn, is related to the range in the numbers of interchanges available. Improvements in statistical practice that come from these constructions and enumerations are described.     

从生态学视角论亲师关系对青少年成长的影响

教师、家长是学生成长中的重要他人,教师与家长关系的存在是以学生为纽带的,因此,发生在家长与教师相互之间的社会行为对正在成长的学生必然会产生影响。由此从生态学的视角探讨在亲师关系中影响青少年成长的两个微系统(教师与家长),从而挖掘出对青少年的发展造成潜在影响的环境因素,并在相互作用过程中把握这些因素,寻找出它们变化、发展的规律,同时运用这些规律促进青少年的发展。     

中国地区电子政务就绪度的行政生态视角分析

在中国信息化的背景下,基于行政生态学的理念,构建中国省级地区电子政务发展就绪程度指标评价体系,对中国31个省级地区的电子政务发展就绪程度进行了实证分析,发现各地区电子政务发展就绪程度较低且存在较大差异性,同时呈现出自东向西逐步降低的现象,并且都存在"硬技术"水平高、"软环境"基础薄弱的现状;最后从经济基础、通信基础设施和人力资本建设三方面提出加强外部社会信息化发展的建议。     

长三角船舶产业集群及其发展策略——基于生态学的视角

产业集群现象在国际船舶工业中表现明显,但人们对船舶产业集群形成、发展机制的有效认识不足。实际上,与生物群落类似,位于区域内的船舶产业集群是一个相互联系、相互制约的综合体,船舶产业集群的形成则是一个生态演化过程。从这一视角看,长三角船舶产业集群区域基本形成,正处于由点、线到面的发展阶段,将进入由面到块状发展的攻坚阶段。政府应从创设集群环境、提高组织化程度等着手,进一步发展船舶产业集群。     

略论多元文化教育的理念与实践

本文认为,多元文化教育应是多元一体教育的下位概念,这是符合中国国情的。为此,本文从意识形态、意识生态、意识心态的视野,集中分析了多元文化教育与国家、地方(民族)和个人之间的关系,探讨了实施多元文化教育的可能与路径,在整合的意义上,提出了"多元文化教育三态说"的理念,为探讨本土的多元文化教育理论与实践做出了尝试。