Real options valuation principle in the multi-period base-stock problem

This paper analyzes the multi-period base-stock problem where there is a financial risk associated with a stochastic demand. For the single-period problem, it is known that the optimal inventory policy can be obtained with the Black and Scholes option pricing formula. This paper pushes the analysis further by applying the options valuation framework to the multi-period problem and presenting an algorithm for finding the optimal inventory policy. A computational study indicates that the effect of systematic risk is typically negligible (as for the single-period problem). Therefore, it can be concluded that systematic risk in demand is of little importance for optimal inventory control.     

Manufacturing strategies and financial performance—The effect of advanced information technology: CAD/CAM systems

Nowadays, the business environment is characterized by great uncertainty and variability. In this environment, information technology (IT) has proved to be an important strategic ingredient for the creation of competitive advantage. This role of IT has been widely accepted during the past few years [Feeny D. Creating and sustaining competitive advantage with IT. In: Earl M, editor. Information management the strategic direction. Oxford, 1990; Ives B. Wingtip Courriers, Southern Methodist University Case Study #SMY/MIS/90-01, Edwin L. Cox School of Business, Dallas, TX, January 1990].     

The Benefits and Costs of Using Metadata to Improve Enterprise Document Search

The literature shows that there are many problems with enterprise document search. Studies reveal that typical knowledge workers spend between 10% and 20% of their time searching for documents they never find. While many argue that metadata can improve enterprise document search, in reality few organizations use metadata. This represents a missed opportunity. This article describes the results of two experiments that use simulation to evaluate the actual impact of metadata on the costs and benefits of enterprise search. The first study provides quantitative evidence of the increase in recall and precision that stems from the use of metadata‐enhanced document searches. The second study demonstrates that simple metadata structures can be nearly as effective as complex ones, implying that the cost of creating and maintaining metadata is likely to be lower than generally thought. This is the first study to provide explicit quantitative evidence of the gains that can be achieved from the use of metadata, and one of only a handful of studies that examines the cost of creating and maintaining metadata.     

自由现金流代理成本假说还是过度自信假说?——中国上市公司投资——现金流敏感性的实证研究

企业投资现金流敏感性问题可以由现金流代理假说解释,也可以由管理者过度自信假说解释,本文以企业的成长性、现金流特征为划分指标对企业进行分组,并以此来区分与检验两种理论假说。研究结果显示,自由现金流代理问题较为严重的低成长—高现金流企业,将会发生企业过度投资。同样,过度自信问题较为严重的高成长—高现金流企业,也将发生企业过度投资。实证研究结果即支持了自由现金流代理假说,也支持了过度自信假说。     

Produktdiversifizierung und Unternehmenserfolg: Nutzung der Forschungsdatenzentren der Statistischen ?mter

Zusammenfassung: Im Rahmen seiner industrie?konomischen Forschung beabsichtigt das DIW Berlin das Verhalten von Unternehmen auf den Produktm?rkten intensiver zu analysieren. In einem ersten Schritt soll der Zusammenhang zwischen Produktdiversifizierung, der Einführung neuer Produkte und dem Erfolg von Unternehmen im verarbeitenden Gewerbe untersucht werden. Dies soll mit Hilfe einer ?konometrischen Panelanalyse auf der Grundlage von Mikrodaten von Unternehmen erfolgen. Statt des in der Arbeitsmarktforschung üblichen Employer-Employee Datensatzes wird für diesen Zweck ein Producer-Product Datensatz ben?tigt. Erstmals sollen diese Mikrodaten im Rahmen einer Panelanalyse durch die Forschung ausgewertet werden. Dabei werden zwei getrennt durchgeführte Erhebungen, die Kostenstrukturerhebung und die Produktionserhebung, für einzelne Unternehmen zusammengefasst. M?glich wird dieses Forschungsvorhaben durch die Nutzung des auf Empfehlung der Kommission zur Verbesserung der informationellen Infrastruktur neu eingerichteten Forschungsdatenzentrums (FDZ). Das vorliegende Papier berichtet über das Forschungskonzept und die bisher erfolgten Schritte bei der Nutzung der Forschungsdatenzentren des Bundes und der L?nder am regionalen Standort Berlin.

---

Summary: For a better understanding of the strategies of firms on their product markets, the DIW Berlin intends to intensify the analysis on the relationship between product diversification, including the introduction of new products and the success of firms. It is planned to do this by applying econometric panel methods on micro level data for German manufacturing enterprises. For this objective, it is necessary to create a producer-product database. This affords the merging of two different datasets of the system of surveys in manufacturing for Germany. The cost structure survey supplies information on the operating surplus of individual firms, while the production survey supplies the information on the goods produced by these firms. Conducting such an ambitious project has now been made possible in using the newly installed Research Data Centres (FDZ) for Germany. This paper gives an overview on the research project and on first experiences with the use of the local Research Data Centre in Berlin.

     

WTO与劳动力资本保全

我国加入WTO,迫切要求对农产品成本信息反映规范化,迫切要求农业主体迅速地将资本保全理论运用于会计核算中.本文就确保农产品成本信息规范、完整、可靠,农业主体如何重视劳动力资本保全管理的问题进行了探讨,对不断提高农产品竞争力具有现实意义.     

Simultaneous Determination of Joint Product Cost Allocations and Cost-Plus Prices*

Use of the net realizable value approach for joint manufacturing cost allocations requires knowledge of selling prices of joint products. However, joint product selling prices themselves are functions of the allocated costs under a cost-plus pricing policy. In this case, it is necessary to determine joint cost allocations and joint product prices simultaneously. This paper applies a nonlinear programming (NLP) approach to simultaneously determine the optimal joint production decision, joint product cost-plus prices, and joint cost allocations using the net realizable value method. The NLP solution provides not only the optimal joint production and pricing decisions, but also the necessary conditions for such optimal decisions.     

论农业生产中实施"斤粮成本逆控"管理

斤粮成本逆控管理是依据系统论和控制论的观点,以科学预测农产品市场价格为基础,倒推出斤粮目标成本,在各项生产经营费用发生以前和斤粮成本形成的各阶段,对各种影响斤粮成本的因素和条件所采取的控制措施.实施斤粮成本逆控管理对于农业商品生产者适应市场化新形势,有效化解市场风险,实现农业增产增收增效,意义重大.在农业生产中逐步推广和普及斤粮成本逆控管理,是我国农业转变发展观念、创新发展模式、提高发展质量的一条希望之路.     

“80后”裸婚的深层原因探究

随着“80后”走入婚姻,相当一部分的人选择与传统婚姻完全不同的“裸婚”。他们到底为什么选择裸婚？裸婚是时代的进步还是被迫无奈？研究对“80后”进行深入的实地调查,以五位1980年后出生的被访者为个案研究对象,以开放式访谈方式收集资料。在对资料进行质性分析基础上发现：80后并非自愿选择裸婚,而是由于婚姻成本的畸高、婚姻中感情因素的上升、婚姻双方对婚后家庭生活的重视以及代际间财富流的变化等原因造成的。但是由于本次调查的五位访谈者的家庭均社会地位较低、经济力量较弱,因而本次质性调查结果推广性受到一定的影响。     

Early inference on reliability of upgraded automotive components by using past data and technical information

When a new product is the result of design and/or process improvements introduced in its predecessors, then the past failure data and the expert technical knowledge constitute a valuable source of information that can lead to a more accurate reliability estimate of the upgraded product. This paper proposes a Bayesian procedure to formalize the prior information available about the failure probability of an upgraded automotive component. The elicitation process makes use of the failure data of the past product, the designer information on the effectiveness of planned design/process modifications, information on actual working conditions of the upgraded component and, for outsourced components, technical knowledge on the effect of possible cost reductions. By using the proposed procedure, more accurate estimates of the failure probability can arise. The number of failed items in a future population of vehicles is also predicted to measure the effect of a possible extension of the warranty period. Finally, the proposed procedure was applied to a case study and its feasibility in supporting reliability estimation is illustrated.