货币政策中介目标M2的修正和新生

M2是传统的货币政策中介目标,然而,随着经济和金融环境的变化,它的有效性备受质疑。在没有更好的替代指标出现以前,探讨修正的M2是学术界的热点。迪维西亚法和现金等价法都是基于流动性总量的测度来修正简单加总法测度下的M2。本文通过更为简洁的模型推导,首次在构建原理上论证,在测度M2的流动性总量时,现金等价法的精确性明显优于迪维西亚法。本文还基于货币需求函数的稳定性和选择货币政策中介目标的可控性、相关性原则,对简单加总法、迪维西亚法和现金等价法测度下的M2的合理性进行实证比较,结果表明,现金等价法测度下的M2在货币需求函数的稳定性以及作为货币政策中介目标的可控性、相关性上都明显优于简单加总法和迪维西亚法测度下的M2。因此,本文认为,应该用现金等价法来修正传统M2,使其能够准确反映流动性总量的变化,提升其作为货币政策中介目标的效力。     

Is the Current Account Deficit a Problem for Romania?

The current account deficit of Romania, both significant in size and persistent, has been a worrying issue affecting the country’s economic and financial macro-stability also in the medium and long term. This paper sets out to review the causes of that phenomenon and its coverage resources during the last 2 years, 2006 and 2007, while the final part deals with the potential developments of said parameters during the post European Union accession period, as well as of their respective influential factors.

东亚货币合作对贸易流量的影响——基于面板数据的引力模型分析

国际贸易中引力模型被用于评价贸易制度变化的影响或者用于检验各种贸易理论。文章使用引力模型测度东亚区域内汇率波动对区域内贸易流量的影响。研究结果表明：在东亚货币合作不断深入过程中,东亚各国在完全消除了名义汇率波动后短期内区域内贸易额有明显的增加,并且长期效应将更大。     

唐代货币制度和货币流通浅论

唐代钱帛兼行的货币制度是一种以实物货币和金属货币兼而行之的多元的货币制度,不但其本身存在着明显缺陷,而且越来越不能适应商品经济发展的客观要求。由于错误落后的货币思想的影响,唐政府没有改革过时的钱帛兼行的货币制度,而是采取多种措施极力维护它,使得流通中通货紧缩的问题日益严重并且无法较好解决,极大地阻碍了商品经济的进一步发展。     

人民币汇率改革应该控制速度与强度--从我国货币替代问题出发的行为经济学分析

根据行为经济学的基本理论以及相应的实证分析,发现当前我国居民由于损失规避心理较强,因而在决定是否进行货币替代时,对人民币实际汇率的绝对水平反应不足,但对人民币实际汇率的波动程度反应敏感。故人民币汇率制度从盯住单一美元过渡到盯住一篮子货币后,为了防范由货币替代的潜在加剧而造成对宏观经济的冲击,政策当局应该做到:短期内不应对人民币币值进行大幅度或频繁的调整,同时必须维持当前汇率政策的延续性;长期内必须完善国内市场化环境,不断缓解居民的损失规避心理,培育和提升居民对汇率制度改革的应变能力。     

东亚货币合作与人民币国际化

蒙代尔2000年预言,在未来10年内将出现3大货币区:欧元区、美元区和亚洲货币区, 即“稳定性三岛”。欧洲和美洲的区域货币一体化成果使区域货币一体化成为国际货币制度的发展趋向。在区域货币一体化的大潮中,东亚货币合作也不可避免。中国作为东亚地区经济增长速度最快的国家之一,不仅应该积极参与东亚货币合作,而且应该成为推动者和领导者。但是,中国参与东亚货币合作存在诸多困难,其中人民币国际化程度不高是主要困难之一。人民币国际化是实现东亚货币合作的主要路径之一。因此,东亚货币合作进程中,必须加快人民币国际化。     

A Mixed Bivariate Distribution Connected with Geometric Maxima of Exponential Variables

We study the joint distribution of X and N, where N has a geometric distribution and X is the maximum of N i.i.d. exponential variables, independent of N. We present basic properties of these mixed bivariate distributions and discuss parameter estimation for this model. An example from finance, where N represents the number of consecutive positive daily log-returns of currency exchange rates, illustrates stochastic modeling potential of these laws.     

从欧洲经济货币联盟看东亚货币合作

欧洲货币一体化的成功为东亚货币合作提供了典范 ,但与欧盟相比 ,东亚国家目前仍不具备组建最优货币区的条件 ,东亚货币合作目前仍处于初级的准备阶段 ,东亚各国必须加强政治协商与经济合作 ,缩小经济发展的差异 ,使货币合作的条件早日成熟     

A General Quantile Function Model for Economic and Financial Time Series

This article proposed a general quantile function model that covers both one- and multiple-dimensional models and that takes several existing models in the literature as its special cases. This article also developed a new uniform Bayesian framework for quantile function modelling and illustrated the developed approach through different quantile function models. Many distributions are defined explicitly only via their quanitle functions as the corresponding distribution or density functions do not have an explicit mathematical expression. Such distributions are rarely used in economic and financial modelling in practice. The developed methodology makes it more convenient to use these distributions in analyzing economic and financial data. Empirical applications to economic and financial time series and comparisons with other types of models and methods show that the developed method can be very useful in practice.