布伦特原油价格季节性波动分析

油价时间序列往往受众多因素的影响,从而可以分解成各种成分。本文利用X-12-ARIMA方法分析布伦特原油价格的季节性波动,探讨油价运动规律,为我国进口石油提供决策支持。     

基于企业制度和企业理论的利益相关者评价方法

企业制度的演进决定了企业理论的相应发展,而企业理论又成为业绩评价方法发展的理论基础。随着传统企业制度到现代企业制度的演进和企业理论的发展,业绩评价方法对传统的财务绩效评价方法提出了挑战,利益相关者评价方法应运而生。在当代,知识经济的迅速发展使得知识资本已经或者将要成为与财务资本同等甚至更为重要的资源,从而促进了新型企业制度的产生。由于在新型企业,核心技术研发人员等关键成员对企业的生存和发展有着极其重要的作用,因此新型企业业绩评价应主要是以研发(R&D)绩效为核心的创新业绩评价。     

基于M-SemiA.D组合投资模型及对上海股市实证研究

马柯威茨的均值-方差(M-V)模型中以方差度量风险存在两个致命的缺陷,为了更精确度量风险,作者提出了半绝对离差(SemiA.D)概念,并以此对M-V模型进行改进。通过对上海有代表性的50支股票复权价进行分析,我们得到:在每个期望收益率水平上,基于M-SemiA.D模型的投资组合都优于M-V模型中的投资组合,并且有效投资组合满足两基金分离定理。     

COMMUNICATION,COORDINATION, AND NETWORKS

We study experimentally the role of the network structure of pre‐play communication in determination of outcome and behavior in a multiplayer coordination game with conflicting preferences. We explore the trade‐off between the efficiency and equity of coordination outcomes and its link to the network structure of communication. Our results show substantial variations in both efficiency and equity of coordination outcomes across networks. While, as expected, increasing the length of communication improves the chance of successful coordination, it also reduces the asymmetry in the distribution of coordinated outcomes. We identify behaviors that explain variations in the distribution of coordinated outcomes both within and across networks. In all treatments, coordination is mostly explained by convergence in communication.     

FROM SHAME TO GAME IN ONE HUNDRED YEARS: AN ECONOMIC MODEL OF THE RISE IN PREMARITAL SEX AND ITS DE‐STIGMATIZATION

Societies socialize children about sex. This is done in the presence of peer‐group effects, which may encourage undesirable behavior. Parents want the best for their children. Still, they weigh the marginal gains from socializing their children against its costs. Churches and states may stigmatize sex, both because of a concern about the welfare of their flocks and the need to control the cost of charity associated with out‐of‐wedlock births. Modern contraceptives have profoundly affected the calculus for instilling sexual mores. As contraception improves there is less need for parents, churches, and states to inculcate sexual mores. Technology affects culture.     

Immigrants in the UK and in West Germany –Relative income position,income portfolio,and redistribution effects

Based on data from the BHPS and the SOEP, we analyse the economic performance of various ethnic groups in the UK and West Germany, as well as the effects of income redistribution on these populations. Taking the indigenous population of each country as the reference category, we find that, as a whole, the non-indigenous population in the UK fares much better than the immigrant population in Germany. However, the range of economic performance across different ethnic groups in the UK is much larger than that in Germany. The German corporatist welfare system is characterised by much stronger redistribution effects than the liberal UK one. Consequently, the relatively low-performing immigrant population in Germany profits more from the redistribution system than immigrants with similar socio-economic attributes in the UK.All correspondence to Felix Büchel. Responsible editor: Christoph M. Schmidt     

Time preference and capital mobility in an OLG model with land

This paper examines the pattern of capital mobility in a two-country overlapping generations world in which production uses three inputs: capital, labor and land. The steady-state welfare consequences of opening countries to financial capital or labor mobility are then compared. In particular, it is shown that capital mobility does not equalize standards of living across countries. To achieve this goal, one has to rely on labor mobility. Received: 8 January 1996 / Accepted: 6 June 1996     

The empowerment of women,fertility, and child mortality: Towards a theoretical analysis

This paper examines one avenue through which female autonomy impinges on fertility and child mortality in developing countries. A simple model is set out in which couples are motivated to have children for old age security purposes. The decisions of a couple regarding fertility and allocation of resources for the healthcare of their children are made within a bargaining framework. An increase in female autonomy translating into an increase in the relative bargaining power or the threat point utility of mothers is shown to reduce fertility and also to reduce child mortality rates. Paradoxically, the increase in female autonomy within a household may increase the disadvantage suffered by female children in that household with respect to survival. Received: 4 August 1999/Accepted: 7 September 2000     

影响国家科学创新能力提升的制约因素分析

从国际视角,实证考察了2001-2011年间我国科学创新投入产出状况。研究发现,在影响国家科学创新能力提升的因素中,RD经费投入强度落后于经济社会发展阶段是关键制约因素;政府对高校RD经费投入比例偏低和基础研究资助对象不明确,是导致基础研究投入长期以来不断走低的重要原因。因此,为了使国家科学创新能力有一个质的提升,政府必须在不断提高RD经费投入强度的前提下,从根本上改革目前落后的资源配置结构。     

触知万物,沟通宇宙——论D.H.劳伦斯诗歌中的触觉

劳伦斯诗歌重视感官意识,其中触觉感知尤其突出.触摸是劳伦斯诗歌中亲子和两性之间爱意的传达,在劳伦斯看来,健康完整的人应当是身体与精神的统一.触觉的最终目的不是肉体的触摸,而是达到触摸人类的情感和灵魂,形成人、环境与宇宙生命之间的沟通和互动.在这个机械和物质文明占主导的时代,劳伦斯触觉意识为生活在“唯我”状态、感知钝化的现代人指出了一条回归完整、和谐与爱的神秘通道.