劳伦斯的阿芙罗狄特情结

戴·赫·劳伦斯一生崇拜阿芙罗狄特,他津津乐道的血意识其实是阿芙罗狄特精神的现代阐释,而小说《查特莱夫人的情人》则是对这种精神的形象表达,隐喻作者一贯坚持的只有性爱才能拯救人类的思想主题。     

第三种势力--政治视角中的鸿都门学

鸿都门学是由汉灵帝独立发起并组织的 ,其初衷和实际并不是直接针对党锢之士的 ,而是针对东观、太学等清流士人 ,同时也是针对宦官集团的 ,因此鸿都门学是汉灵帝执政时代的第三种政治势力。它介于清流与浊流之间 ,是汉灵帝试图依赖的一种新兴的政治力量     

On the detection of changes in autoregressive time series I. Asymptotics

Various test statistics are discussed which can be used for detecting changes in the parameters of an autoregressive time series. In this first part of our study, the limiting behavior of the test statistics is derived under the null hypothesis of no change as well as under alternatives. In a forthcoming second part of our investigation, these asymptotic results will be compared to some corresponding bootstrap procedures, and a small simulation study will be conducted.     

A comparison of conditional Poisson sampling versus unequal probability sampling with replacement

The variance of the Horvitz–Thompson estimator for a fixed size Conditional Poisson sampling scheme without replacement and with unequal inclusion probabilities is compared to the variance of the Hansen–Hurwitz estimator for a sampling scheme with replacement. We show, using a theorem by Gabler, that the sampling design without replacement is more efficient than the sampling design with replacement.     

农业龙头企业R＆D与企业成长关系研究

农业龙头企业在农业产业化经营中具有关键作用 ,对农业龙头企业如何实现持续成长的探讨 ,成了当前研究热点之一。文章主要从技术创新角度分析农业龙头企业成长 ,在已有研究基础上 ,探讨龙头企业R&D与企业成长之间的互动机理及其环境契合。认为 ,在一定条件下 ,农业龙头企业R&D与企业成长之间存在正反馈关系 ,契合的企业成长环境会加强二者的互动关系。     

A nonparametric repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size

In this article a general result is derived that, along with a functional central limit theorem for a sequence of statistics, can be employed in developing a nonparametric repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size. This method is used in deriving a repeated significance test with adaptive target sample size for the shift model. The repeated significance test is based on a functional central limit theorem for a sequence of partial sums of truncated observations. Based on numerical results presented in this article one can conclude that this nonparametric sequential test performs quite well.     

On robust forecasting in dynamic vector time series models

In this article, robust estimation and prediction in multivariate autoregressive models with exogenous variables (VARX) are considered. The conditional least squares (CLS) estimators are known to be non-robust when outliers occur. To obtain robust estimators, the method introduced in Duchesne [2005. Robust and powerful serial correlation tests with new robust estimates in ARX models. J. Time Ser. Anal. 26, 49–81] and Bou Hamad and Duchesne [2005. On robust diagnostics at individual lags using RA-ARX estimators. In: Duchesne, P., Rémillard, B. (Eds.), Statistical Modeling and Analysis for Complex Data Problems. Springer, New York] is generalized for VARX models. The asymptotic distribution of the new estimators is studied and from this is obtained in particular the asymptotic covariance matrix of the robust estimators. Classical conditional prediction intervals normally rely on estimators such as the usual non-robust CLS estimators. In the presence of outliers, such as additive outliers, these classical predictions can be severely biased. More generally, the occurrence of outliers may invalidate the usual conditional prediction intervals. Consequently, the new robust methodology is used to develop robust conditional prediction intervals which take into account parameter estimation uncertainty. In a simulation study, we investigate the finite sample properties of the robust prediction intervals under several scenarios for the occurrence of the outliers, and the new intervals are compared to non-robust intervals based on classical CLS estimators.     

两汉民俗区研究

民俗的重要特征是地域性,民俗区研究对研究区域历史文化有重要意义。自司马迁起,就开始将两汉民俗区划分为9个,后又有刘向、朱赣把全国划为13个民俗区,17个民俗亚区;今人周振鹤先生重新组合《汉书·地理志》的资料,把两汉民俗区划为三大民俗区域,16个民俗区,15个民俗亚区。以上划分法都有一定的缺憾,应划为四大民俗带:长城民俗带、黄河民俗带、长江民俗带、珠江民俗带。民俗区的形成有自然环境和政治环境的影响,相对南方而言,北方地区民俗受社会政治环境的影响更大一些。     

城市三维地层信息系统的提出与思考

根据城市建设的实际情况，阐述了建立三维地层信息系统的意义，并针对当前地理信息系统发展的状况，提出了建立城市三维地层信息系统的思路．     

跨国公司R＆D的全球性扩张：动因·特征·影响及对策

跨国公司进行全球性扩张,最为突出的表现是跨国公司R&D全球化趋势日益显现。跨国公司R&D的全球性扩张,既促进了我国经济的发展,提供了我国急需的资金和技术,增强了国内企业的竞争意识和国际竞争力,但同时对我国国家经济安全构成严重的威胁和挑战。我们应采取有效措施,利用跨国公司R&D对我国经济的积极作用,限制跨国公司R&D对我国经济发展的负面影响,以保持中国经济的持续健康成长。