Goal attainability and performance: Evidence from Boston marathon qualifying standards

In this paper we test if performance improves once goals become more attainable. Goal-setting literature suggests that workers respond to challenging but achievable goals with increased performance. Empirical evidence supports the notion of goals increasing performance; however the evidence on how attainability of goals affects performance is mixed. This paper tests whether efforts increase, improving performance as the goals become more attainable. We are employing a unique set of publicly available marathon data from 1970 to 2015 to directly analyze the effect of goal attainability on performance. With the probable goal of qualifying for the Boston Marathon, we test if runners increase their effort, and consequently improve their performance if they enter a new age group and as a result have a more attainable goal. We find that runners who enter a new age group perform better than the runners whose qualifying time did not change. This effect is seen with runners in younger age groups, but not found in the results of runners in more advanced years.     

Estimation and goodness-of-fit procedures for Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of order statistics

In this study, we provide the Farlie–Gumbel–Morgenstern bivariate copula of rth and sth order statistics. The main emphasis in this study is on the inference procedure which is based on the maximum pseudo-likelihood estimate for the copula parameter. As for the methodology, goodness-of-fit test statistic for copulas which is based on a Cramér–von Mises functional of the empirical copula process is applied for selecting an appropriate model by bootstrapping. An application of the methodology to simulated data set is also presented.     

Least squares estimation of varying‐coefficient hazard regression with application to breast cancer dose‐intensity data

To enhance modeling flexibility, the authors propose a nonparametric hazard regression model, for which the ordinary and weighted least squares estimation and inference procedures are studied. The proposed model does not assume any parametric specifications on the covariate effects, which is suitable for exploring the nonlinear interactions between covariates, time and some exposure variable. The authors propose the local ordinary and weighted least squares estimators for the varying‐coefficient functions and establish the corresponding asymptotic normality properties. Simulation studies are conducted to empirically examine the finite‐sample performance of the new methods, and a real data example from a recent breast cancer study is used as an illustration. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 37: 659–674; 2009 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Percentile Related Bounds and Estimator for the Mean of the Negative Binomial Distribution

Upper and lower bounds are obtained for the mean of the negative binomial distribution. These bounds are simple functions of a percentile determined by the shape parameter. The result is then used to obtain a robust estimate of the mean when the shape parameter is known.     

Second-Order Approximations to Two Classes of Sequential Estimation Procedures

For the model considered by Chaturvedi, Pandey and Gupta (1991), two classes of sequential procedures are developed to construct confidence regions (which may be interval, ellipsoidal or spherical) of ‘pre-assigned width and coverage probability’ for the parameters of interest and for the minimum risk point estimation (taking loss to be quadratic plus linear cost of sampling) of the nuisance parameter. Second-Order approximations are derived for the expected sample size, coverage probability and ‘regret’ associated with the two classes of sequential procedures. A simple and direct method of obtaining the asymptotic distribution of the stopping time is provided. By means of examples, it is illustrated that several estimation problems can be tackled with the help of proposed classes of sequential procedures.     

What Survey Data Reveal about Price and Wage Rigidity in Portugal

This paper exploits the information collected from a survey conducted on a sample of Portuguese firms to study the patterns of firms’ price and wage adjustments and the extent of nominal price and wage rigidities. The evidence shows that the frequency of price changes varies substantially across sectors and depends on the intensity of competition, the share of labor costs and firms’ price reviewing behavior. The results also suggest that the constraint imposed by the presence of downward nominal wage rigidity is less important in firms where the fraction of permanent and high‐skilled workers is lower and the share of flexible pay components is higher.     

LABOR SUPPLY OF POLITICIANS

Using data on Members of the European Parliament (MEPs), we examine the impact of salaries on the composition and the behavior of legislators. Employing a differences‐in‐differences approach, we exploit the introduction of a law that equalized MEPs' salaries which had previously differed by as much as a factor of 10. Increasing salaries raises the fraction of MEPs who run for re‐election but decreases the quality of elected MEPs (proxied by college quality). Salary has no discernible impact on effort or legislation output. Higher salaries induce more political competition.     

THE BALANCED US PRESS

We measure the relative ideological positions of newspapers, voters, interest groups, and political parties, using data on ballot propositions. We exploit the fact that newspapers, parties, and interest groups take positions on these propositions, and the fact that citizens ultimately vote on them. We find that, on average, newspapers in the United States are located almost exactly at the median voter in their states—that is, they are balanced around the median voter. Still, there is a significant amount of ideological heterogeneity across newspapers, which is smaller than the one found for interest groups. However, when we group propositions by issue area, we find a sizable amount of ideological imbalance: broadly speaking, newspapers are to the left of the state‐level median voter on many social issues, and to the right on many economic issues. To complete the picture, we use two existing methods of measuring bias and show that the news and editorial sections of newspapers have almost identical partisan positions.