中国企业拓展国际市场的模式与策略研究--以荷兰中资企业的实证分析为例

在特定的国外市场选择正确的进入方式是企业国际化进程中最重要的决策之一,也是跨国公司拓展国际市场、实施全球战略的重要思路.本文以企业国际市场进入模式决策的相关理论探讨及模型构建为基础,通过对在荷兰中资企业的实证分析,探讨中国企业如何顺应世界潮流,实施"走出去"战略,选择拓展国际市场的适当模式,以及如何在全球范围内最有效地利用各种经营资源,以提升自己的竞争能力,在跨国竞争中求得生存和发展的相应策略.     

Decision Making with Uncertain Judgments: A Stochastic Formulation of the Analytic Hierarchy Process*

In the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), priorities are derived via a deterministic method, the eigenvalue decomposition. However, judgments may be subject to error. A stochastic characterization of the pairwise comparison judgment task is provided and statistical models are introduced for deriving the underlying priorities. Specifically, a weighted hierarchical multinomial logit model is used to obtain the priorities. Inference is then conducted from the Bayesian viewpoint using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. The stochastic methods are found to give results that are congruent with those of the eigenvector method in matrices of different sizes and different levels of inconsistency. Moreover, inferential statements can be made about the priorities when the stochastic approach is adopted, and these statements may be of considerable value to a decision maker. The methods described are fully compatible with judgments from the standard version of AHP and can be used to construct a stochastic formulation of it.     

On the Measurements of Board Composition: Poor Consistency and a Serious Mismatch of Theory and Operationalization

Over two dozen operationalizations of board composition can be identified from the empirical literature. A structural equations confirmatory factor analysis (LISREL 8.03) suggests that these operationalizations do not constitute a single construct of board independence. Instead, analyses strongly indicate three separate constructs. Common operationalizations of board composition, then, are neither tenable surrogates for one another nor are they interchangeable. Implications for empirical aggregation of studies, theory/measurement convergence, and the current corporate governance public policy debate are discussed.     

The impact of learning opportunities and decision authority on occupational health

In an investigation of 418 employees in the Norwegian Postal Service, employees with high learning opportunities and high decision authority were found to be better off on psychological functioning, health and organizational outcome variables than employees with low scores on these variables. Decision authority and learning opportunities had specific and independent impact on subjective health, psychological functioning, coping style and organizational outcome variables. There were, however, also interaction effects between demands, learning opportunities, and decision authority on subjective health. Learning opportunities and decision authority were operationalized with a questionnaire, supplemented with questions on the opportunities to learn skills beyond the present job situation. It is suggested that this is a particularly important dimension for coping with the present day rapid changes in working life, where the objective for many workers will be to broaden their repertoire and competence to increase their flexibility in the labour market.     

浅议我国行政规划的制定程序

作为现代行政的重要手段，行政规划在政府行政中的作用将愈加突显，与之相对应，对行政规划的规制也将愈加重要。而在其规制中，最重要的就是规范行政规划的制定程序。只有规范行政规划的制定程序，才能保证行政规划的合法性与合理性，使行政目标得以实现。     

Near‐Misses and Future Disaster Preparedness

Disasters garner attention when they occur, and organizations commonly extract valuable lessons from visible failures, adopting new behaviors in response. For example, the United States saw numerous security policy changes following the September 11 terrorist attacks and emergency management and shelter policy changes following Hurricane Katrina. But what about those events that occur that fall short of disaster? Research that examines prior hazard experience shows that this experience can be a mixed blessing. Prior experience can stimulate protective measures, but sometimes prior experience can deceive people into feeling an unwarranted sense of safety. This research focuses on how people interpret near‐miss experiences. We demonstrate that when near‐misses are interpreted as disasters that did not occur and thus provide the perception that the system is resilient to the hazard, people illegitimately underestimate the danger of subsequent hazardous situations and make riskier decisions. On the other hand, if near‐misses can be recognized and interpreted as disasters that almost happened and thus provide the perception that the system is vulnerable to the hazard, this will counter the basic “near‐miss” effect and encourage mitigation. In this article, we use these distinctions between resilient and vulnerable near‐misses to examine how people come to define an event as either a resilient or vulnerable near‐miss, as well as how this interpretation influences their perceptions of risk and their future preparedness behavior. Our contribution is in highlighting the critical role that people's interpretation of the prior experience has on their subsequent behavior and in measuring what shapes this interpretation.     

The Collapsing Choice Theory: Dissociating Choice and Judgment in Decision Making

Decision making theory in general, and mental models in particular, associate judgment and choice. Decision choice follows probability estimates and errors in choice derive mainly from errors in judgment. In the studies reported here we use the Monty Hall dilemma to illustrate that judgment and choice do not always go together, and that such a dissociation can lead to better decision-making. Specifically, we demonstrate that in certain decision problems, exceeding working memory limitations can actually improve decision choice. We show across four experiments that increasing the number of choice alternatives forces people to collapse choices together, resulting in better decision-making. While choice performance improves, probability judgments do not change, thus demonstrating an important dissociation between choice and probability judgments. We propose the Collapsing Choice Theory (CCT) which explains how working memory capacity, probability estimation, choice alternatives, judgment, and regret all interact and effect decision quality.      

Incorporating quality into data envelopment analysis of nursing home performance: A case study

When using data envelopment analysis (DEA) as a benchmarking technique for nursing homes, it is essential to include measures of the quality of care. We survey applications where quality has been incorporated into DEA models and consider the concerns that arise when the results show that quality measures have been effectively ignored. Three modeling techniques are identified that address these concerns. Each of these techniques requires some input from management as to the proper emphasis to be placed on the quality aspect of performance. We report the results of a case study in which we apply these techniques to a DEA model of nursing home performance. We examine in depth not only the resulting efficiency scores, but also the benchmark sets and the weights given to the input and output measures. We find that two of the techniques are effective in insuring that DEA results discriminate between high and low quality performance.     

与时俱进办好社科期刊发展繁荣哲学社会科学

江泽民同志连续三次就哲学社会科学的发展问题作了重要讲话,从治党兴国的战略高度,强调了哲学社会科学的重要性,指明了哲学社会科学发展的正确方向,这些讲话是新时期关于哲学社会科学发展的纲领性文件.文章论述了学习江泽民讲话的重要意义,着重论述社会科学期刊编辑工作者如何贯彻"讲话"精神,做好工作,并就在办刊实践中应坚持正确的导向、增强创新意识、精心策划选题以及树立精品意识做好编稿工作等几个方面进行了探讨.     

多圈层——中心辐射式选题策划模式

目前选题策划在我国出版界处于起步和尝试阶段,受到出版界的高度重视.本文在对比分析若干策划模式利弊的基础上,提出一种"多圈层-中心辐射式"的选题策划模式.该模式是指建立以社长、总编为核心、以编辑室主任和发行部门负责人为骨干、以广大编辑为补充的三层策划网络系统.该模式强调全编辑职能扩展,能够调动各层面人员的积极性,形成选题策划合力,避免或减少人员之间的感情隔阂和选题策划的盲目性.