优选方案定量评价模型研究

在确定评价指标体系的基础上，如何对若干事物或方案进行选优是一个十分有意义的问题．作者利用模糊多目标决策对此进行研究，并通过实例说明该方法的有效性与实用性．     

Gender,lineage, and fertility‐related outcomes in Ghana

A growing literature examines the empirical relationship between the joint reproductive preferences of marital partners and reproductive outcomes in Africa. Less explored is how spousal power in decision making may be influenced by lineage type. Using pooled data from Ghana, we investigate how lineage affects gendered reproductive decision outcomes and find some evidence that matrilineal women are more able than nonmatrilineal women to translate their reproductive preferences into action consistent with their goals.     

论中国艺术表演团体改革的实现途径--兼论中国文化体制改革的特殊性

中国文化事业体制改革的目标和道路要受到行业内部特殊矛盾运动形态的制约。以艺术表演团体改革为例透视文化事业单位改革与政府策略选择之间的关系,可以为决策者提供一种有关中国文化事业体制改革过程和特点的具象把握。在整个社会由计划经济体制向社会主义市场经济体制转轨时期,艺术表演团体固有的政治-伦理角色、市场-经营角色、艺术-行业角色三重身份和伦理性目标、政治性目标、经济效益目标、审美价值目标等多重目标之间相互矛盾、相互依存和对立统一,共同构成了艺术表演团体内部复杂的矛盾运动。而正是这种矛盾特殊性构成各级政府在推进艺术表演团体改革过程中的策略选择基础。     

Decision analysis for practical negotiation application

The family of decision analysis techniques can be applied effectively to support practical negotiators in international settings. These techniques are most appropriate in support of the prenegotiation phase, when parties are diagnosing the situation, assessing their own plans and strategies, and evaluating likely reactions and outcomes. The paper identifies how these approaches have and can be used to assist negotiation practitioners, offers a rationale for the application of decision analytic approaches in terms of the particular analytical requirements of the prenegotiation period, suggests how these process-oriented tools can be integrated with substantive tools, and discusses ways in which these tools can be presented and delivered to practitioners in a practical and confidence-building manner.     

The econometrics of female labor supply and children

This is a survey of applied econometric research on the effects of children on female labor supply. Reasons for interest in the topic, and a basic model and terminology, are reviewed. Concerns are raised about the possible endogeneity of child status variables, and about the instrumental variables approach for dealing with this problem. Alternative ways of conceptualizing and estimating child status effects are considered, together with selected empirical evidence. Relevant developments from the household demand literature are summarized. Basic issues of model choice are also discussed.     

公共决策的民主化与执政能力的提高

执政党的主要行为表现为制定政策,而连接政党和群众的一个重要纽带就是公共政策。可以说,政党执政能力的高低,在某种程度上取决于政策制定的好坏。民主化作为一个国家和民族政治文明程度的重要标尺,政策的民主化对于执政党显得尤为重要,本文从公共决策民主化的角度来探讨对于政党执政能力提高的重要意义。     

试论完善我国散居少数民族立法

少数民族权益的法律保障始终是我国法治进程中的一件大事,而散居少数民族立法工作又是我国整个民族法治建设的重要组成部分。本文主要通过分析完善我国散居少数民族立法的意义,指出我国散居少数民族立法的基本情况以及存在的问题,探求完善散居少数民族立法的方法。     

Uncertainty Analysis for Computer Model Projections of Hurricane Losses

Projecting losses associated with hurricanes is a complex and difficult undertaking that is wrought with uncertainties. Hurricane Charley, which struck southwest Florida on August 13, 2004, illustrates the uncertainty of forecasting damages from these storms. Due to shifts in the track and the rapid intensification of the storm, real-time estimates grew from 2 to 3 billion dollars in losses late on August 12 to a peak of 50 billion dollars for a brief time as the storm appeared to be headed for the Tampa Bay area. The storm hit the resort areas of Charlotte Harbor near Punta Gorda and then went on to Orlando in the central part of the state, with early poststorm estimates converging on a damage estimate in the 28 to 31 billion dollars range. Comparable damage to central Florida had not been seen since Hurricane Donna in 1960. The Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology (FCHLPM) has recognized the role of computer models in projecting losses from hurricanes. The FCHLPM established a professional team to perform onsite (confidential) audits of computer models developed by several different companies in the United States that seek to have their models approved for use in insurance rate filings in Florida. The team's members represent the fields of actuarial science, computer science, meteorology, statistics, and wind and structural engineering. An important part of the auditing process requires uncertainty and sensitivity analyses to be performed with the applicant's proprietary model. To influence future such analyses, an uncertainty and sensitivity analysis has been completed for loss projections arising from use of a Holland B parameter hurricane wind field model. Uncertainty analysis quantifies the expected percentage reduction in the uncertainty of wind speed and loss that is attributable to each of the input variables.     

Assessing accuracy of a continuous screening test in the presence of verification bias

Summary.  In studies to assess the accuracy of a screening test, often definitive disease assessment is too invasive or expensive to be ascertained on all the study subjects. Although it may be more ethical or cost effective to ascertain the true disease status with a higher rate in study subjects where the screening test or additional information is suggestive of disease, estimates of accuracy can be biased in a study with such a design. This bias is known as verification bias. Verification bias correction methods that accommodate screening tests with binary or ordinal responses have been developed; however, no verification bias correction methods exist for tests with continuous results. We propose and compare imputation and reweighting bias-corrected estimators of true and false positive rates, receiver operating characteristic curves and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for continuous tests. Distribution theory and simulation studies are used to compare the proposed estimators with respect to bias, relative efficiency and robustness to model misspecification. The bias correction estimators proposed are applied to data from a study of screening tests for neonatal hearing loss.     

Fifteen Years of Family Group Conferencing: Coordinators Talk About Their Experiences in Aotearoa New Zealand

Family Group Conferencing (FGC) as a solution-focused strategyin child welfare has now been a mandated practice in AotearoaNew Zealand since 1989. This qualitative study examines theexperiences of Care and Protection Coordinators who have beenconvening FGC since the early years of the legislation. Thestudy explores early perceptions of the legislation, what firstattracted them to the role and what keeps them in the job. Inparticular, the study explores the practice tensions that restwithin family-centred child protection models, and the waysin which FGC practice has developed in response to modern imperatives.