属性集容量确定的夹挤式测度模式及其推算模型

迄今,为解决多属性偏好关联决策属性集容量判断指数复杂性难题所提出的λ模糊测度模式与k-可加模糊测度模式,以及建构在它们之上的属性集容量确定的推算模型,尚存在着适用性差的技术不足。为此,以平衡容量判断的可操作性和容量推算的准确性为视角,提出了一种新容量测度模式,即关于容量判断与推算的夹挤式测度模式,并在此基础上通过引入决策者较易判断给出的容量序信息构建了相应的容量推算模型。基于数值模拟的对比分析表明：新模式不仅在应用可行性上高于k-可加模糊测度模式,而且从容量推算的准确性上看也明显优于λ模糊测度模式和k-可加模糊测度模式,因而对实际决策具有更强的适用性。     

基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法

本文首先回顾了模糊信息下前景理论研究的现状,发现犹豫模糊语言这一决策中常见的信息表达形式在前景理论框架中的研究被忽略,同时犹豫模糊环境下的前景决策方法具有一定的应用背景;基于此,本文考虑到决策者在实际决策过程中惯用的信息表达以及面对收益和损失时不同的风险态度,试图在犹豫模糊语言环境下构造新的前景理论决策框架,建立基于犹豫模糊语言信息的前景决策方法,并给出具体的决策步骤;最后通过算例分析展示了该方法的实际应用过程,并与犹豫模糊语言环境下的期望效用决策结果进行对比,说明了该方法更符合实际决策情景。     

产需不确定下基于零售商风险规避的三级供应链组合契约模型

针对产需不确定下单一供应商、制造商和风险规避的零售商组成的三级供应链系统,建立了分散和集中情况下的最优决策模型。通过设计风险共担和GL组合契约实现了三级供应链的协调。讨论了风险规避零售商的最优订购决策,分析了风险规避对供应链期望效益的影响。比较了风险规避和风险中性两种情况下零售商的最优决策。探讨了组合契约的协调问题及契约参数之间的关系。研究表明供应链的期望利润随着产需不确定的增加而减少,风险规避下零售商的期望利润低于风险中性时的期望利润,零售商的期望利润随着风险规避程度的加大而减少,零售商最优订购量随风险规避程度的增加而变化。最后数值算例验证了模型和契约协调的有效性。     

Strategies and cues adolescents use to assess the age of an online stranger

A common risk among adolescents is sexual solicitation, in which an adolescent is asked to provide sexual information, engage in sexual talk, or in sexual activities. Although scholars increasingly address this topic from an intrapersonal perspective, there is little attention to factors of language use and message content. In two focus group studies, we investigated whether adolescent girls consider themselves capable of assessing whether an online stranger is an adult or a peer, the extent to which adolescent girls actually succeed in making this assessment, the strategies they apply to do so, and the content- and language-related cues focused on. Our findings suggest that most of the adolescent girls are confident in their ability to assess whether the stranger is a peer or an adult with possible sexual intentions. However, we also found that only 43% were able to correctly make this assessment. Most of the adolescents seem to apply the passive strategy of uncertainty reduction: They scan the profile page of the stranger, check contact information, and the profile picture. They may choose to apply the interactive strategy to find out more about the online stranger. Important content-related cues that alarm adolescent girls are: ignoring personal questions, showing an exaggerated amount of interest, acting as a friend, and being sexually oriented. Language cues mentioned related to word usage, abbreviations, sentence length, and tone.     

Occupational Engagement and Academic Major Satisfaction: Vocational Identity's Mediating Role

This study examined vocational identity as a mediator of the relationship between occupational engagement (i.e., participation in a breadth of activities and interactions) and academic major satisfaction. Furthermore, the authors evaluated whether satisfaction with academic major related to academic success (i.e., grade point average). The mediational model was tested in a sample of undergraduate students (N = 215). Results indicated that occupational engagement significantly predicted academic major satisfaction and that vocational identity fully mediated that relationship. These findings support occupational engagement as an important contributor to adaptive career decision making and encourage research on occupational engagement as an intervention point for career counselors.     

The Subjectivity of Fairness: Managerial Discretion and Work–Life Balance

We use organizational justice theory to examine how perceptions of fairness affect the decision‐making process of line managers. In‐depth interviews were conducted with 35 Irish managers to explore how managers make organizational allocation decisions in cases where it is impractical to offer work–life balance accommodations to all employees. The findings suggest that firstly, managers construct the ‘life’ aspect of work–life balance within a heteronormative framework, where the emphasis is on caregiving and most usually parenting. Secondly, managers actively use their decision‐making powers around both formal and informal work–life balance supports to minimize injustice within their departments. By bringing together ideas about organizational justice and managerial decision‐making, we indicate how managers determine fairness through a decision‐making process narrowed by embedded gender role beliefs. Implications for future research and practice are discussed.     

"义理决狱"探析--以《名公书判清明集》为主要依据

宋代的“义理决狱”是中国古代法律儒家化运动中的一次升华,是儒家的精神和原则在司法领域内的具体体现。“义理决狱”以儒家的伦理道德作为司法审判的标准,以调解为手段,以宁人息讼为目的,在调解和息讼中都贯穿着教化的原则。     

Testing Prospect Theory in a Deterministic Multiple Criteria Decision-Making Environment*

Prospect theory by Kahneman and Tversky [7] is tested in a deterministic multiple criteria decision-making context. In two experiments conducted in classroom settings subjects made pairwise preference comparisons of condominiums for sale. The results of the experiments indicate that the traditional value model did not explain the subjects' revealed preferences as well as the prospect model. We conclude that prospect theory is a reasonable model of choice for many individuals in such a context.     

Determining Differences in Expert Judgment: Implications for Knowledge Acquisition and Validation*

In knowledge acquisition, it is often desirable to aggregate the judgments of multiple experts into a single system. In some cases this takes the form of averaging the judgments of those experts. In these situations it is desirable to determine if the experts have different views of the world before their individual judgments are aggregated. In validation, multiple experts often are employed to compare the performance of expert systems and other human actors. Often those judgments are then averaged to establish performance quality of the expert system. An important part of the comparison process should be determining if the experts have a similar view of the world. If the experts do not have similar views, their evaluations of performance may differ, resulting in a meaningless average performance measure. Alternatively, if all the validating experts do have similar views of the world then the validation process may result in paradigm myopia.     

在无意义的世界中寻求意义——论《太阳照常升起》的存在主义主题

《太阳照常升起》是享誉世界的美国当代小说家欧内斯特.海明威(Earnest Hemingway)的第一部长篇小说。文章从战后的荒原和寻求精神家园两方面,探讨和研究了该小说中的存在主义思想和人生哲学,强调了海明威为在无意义世界中生活的人寻找了一种新的生存方式,即保持“重压下的优雅。”