Neighbor-Balanced Bipartite Block Designs

This article deals with the neighbor-balanced block design setting when there are two disjoint sets of treatments, one set consisting of test treatments and the other of control treatments. The interest here is to estimate the contrasts pertaining to test treatments vs. control treatments (with respect to direct and neighbors) with as high precision as possible. Some series of neighbor-balanced block designs for comparing a set of test treatments to a set of control treatments have been developed. The designs obtained are totally balanced in the sense that all the contrasts among test treatments for direct and neighbor effects are estimated with same variance and all the contrasts pertaining to test vs. control for direct and neighbor effects are estimated with the same variance.     

Model fusion and multiple testing in the likelihood paradigm: shrinkage and evidence supporting a point null hypothesis

ABSTRACT

According to the general law of likelihood, the strength of statistical evidence for a hypothesis as opposed to its alternative is the ratio of their likelihoods, each maximized over the parameter of interest. Consider the problem of assessing the weight of evidence for each of several hypotheses. Under a realistic model with a free parameter for each alternative hypothesis, this leads to weighing evidence without any shrinkage toward a presumption of the truth of each null hypothesis. That lack of shrinkage can lead to many false positives in settings with large numbers of hypotheses. A related problem is that point hypotheses cannot have more support than their alternatives. Both problems may be solved by fusing the realistic model with a model of a more restricted parameter space for use with the general law of likelihood. Applying the proposed framework of model fusion to data sets from genomics and education yields intuitively reasonable weights of evidence.     

Cointegration and direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis

The paper is concerned with direct tests of the rational expectations hypothesis (REH) in the presence of stationary and non-stationary variables. Alternative methods of converting qualitative survey responses into quantitative expectations series are examined. Testing of orthogonality and the issue of generated regressors for models estimated by two step methods are re-evaluated when the variable to be explained is stationary. A methodological approach for testing the REH is provided for models using qualitative response data when there are unit roots and cointegration, and alternative reasons are examined for rejecting the null hypothesis of orthogonality. The usefulness of cointegration analysis for both the probability and regression conversion procedures is also analysed. Cointegration is found to be directly applicable for the probability conversion approach with uniform, normal and logistic distributions of expectations and for the linear regressicn conversion approach. In the light of new techniques, an existing empirical example testing the REH for British manufacturing firms is re-examined and tested over an extended data set.     

银行业“松绑”与企业“走出去”:基于中国工业企业数据的分析

中国银行业在金融体系中起着关键性的作用,一直是金融发展的重要部分。进入21世纪以来,中国银行业以国有银行为主的结构出现了重大变革,银行业竞争程度不断提高。关于银行业竞争的经济效应存在“市场势力假说”和“信息假说”两个假说,本文尝试在银行准入管制放松政策的背景下和鼓励企业“走出去”的情境下,利用匹配的微观层面数据来实证检验以上的假说,主要得到以下几个结论:首先,银行业“松绑”有助于企业“走出去”; 其次,采取倾向性得分匹配方法应对样本选择问题, 并用工具变量方法应对内生性问题后,这一结论依然成立;最后,银行业“松绑”引起的融资成本下降是银行业“松绑”影响企业“走出去”的重要渠道,企业“走出去”的分析结果也支持了中国情境下银行业“松绑”的“市场势力假说”。本文的研究为银行业改革与企业对外直接投资的关系提供了重要证据,并验证了中国情境下银行业“松绑”的“市场势力假说”和“信息假说”,有助于更加深刻地理解和评估中国银行业改革的经济效应,对更好推动“一带一路”建设有着重要意义。     

直流电动机启动过程的过渡现象

本文讨论了直流电动机起动过程中的过渡现象,并给出了这一过程中直流电动机的角速度和电枢电流随时间变化的关系式。     

云南与周边国家的直接投资关系与产业转移

云南在吸收发达的周边国家直接投资的同时,把劣势产业向不发达的周边国家转移, 这在一定程度上对云南产业结构优化和产业技术发展有积极作用,更重要的是云南与东盟各 国通过直接投资形成了一种技术、资本、人力资源的联动机制,有效地提升了云南在中国与 东盟自由贸易区建设中的地位和作用。     

Some New Series of Partially Balanced Residual Treatment Effects Designs

Blaisdell and Raghavarao (1980 Blaisdell , E. A. , Raghavarao , D. ( 1980 ). Partially balanced change-over designs based on m-associate class PBIB designs . JRSS B 42 : 334 – 338 . [Google Scholar] 1985 Blaisdell , E. A. , Raghavarao , D. ( 1985 ). Efficiency bounds for partially balanced change-over designs based on m-associate class PBIB designs . JRSS B 47 : 132 – 135 . [Google Scholar]) introduced partially balanced residual treatment effects designs and gave methods of construction of these designs. They also gave efficiencies for the estimated direct and residual elementary treatment contrasts of these designs. In this paper, we construct some new series of partially balanced residual treatment effects designs and also give their efficiencies for the estimated direct and residual elementary treatment contrasts.     

How fair can employers be?

In this article we examine three concepts of fairness in employment decisions. Two of these concepts are widely known in the literature as “Fairness 1”and “Fairness 2”. The third concept, which we refer to as “Fairness 0”, is defined and introduced here. Fairness 0 applies to the hiring stage, whereas Fairness 1 and Fairness 2 apply to the placement or promotion stages of employment. Our results have important policy implications. We show that the three concepts of fairness can only rarely be achieved simultaneously.     

Quantification of the Genetic Risk of Environmental Mutagens

Screening methods are used for hazard identification. Assays for heritable mutations in mammals are used for the confirmation of short-term test results and for the quantification of the genetic risk. There are two main approaches in making genetic risk estimates. One of these, termed the direct method, expresses risk in terms of the expected frequency of genetic changes induced per unit dose. The other, referred to as the doubling dose method or the indirect method, expresses risk in relation to the observed incidence of genetic disorders now present in man. The indirect method uses experimental data only for the calculation of the doubling dose. The quality of the risk estimation depends on the assumption of persistence of the induced mutations and the ability to determine the current incidence of genetic diseases. The difficulties of improving the estimates of current incidences of genetic diseases or the persistence of the genes in the population led us to the development of an alternative method, the direct estimation of the genetic risk. The direct estimation uses experimental data for the induced frequency for dominant mutations in mice. For the verification of these quantifications one can use the data of Hiroshima and Nagasaki. According to the estimation with the direct method, one would expect less than 1 radiation-induced dominant cataract in 19,000 children with one or both parents exposed. The expected overall frequency of dominant mutations in the first generation would be 20-25, based on radiation-induced dominant cataract mutations. It is estimated that 10 times more recessive than dominant mutations are induced. The same approaches can be used to determine the impact of chemical mutagens.