Multiobjective Prioritization Methodology and Decision Support System for Evaluating Inventory Enhancement Strategies for Disrupted Interdependent Sectors

Disruptions in the production of commodities and services resulting from disasters influence the vital functions of infrastructure and economic sectors within a region. The interdependencies inherent among these sectors trigger the faster propagation of disaster consequences that are often associated with a wider range of inoperability and amplified losses. This article evaluates the impact of inventory‐enhanced policies for disrupted interdependent sectors to improve the disaster preparedness capability of dynamic inoperability input‐output models (DIIM). In this article, we develop the dynamic cross‐prioritization plot (DCPP)—a prioritization methodology capable of identifying and dynamically updating the critical sectors based on preference assignments to different objectives. The DCPP integrates the risk assessment metrics (e.g., economic loss and inoperability), which are independently analyzed in the DIIM. We develop a computer‐based DCPP tool to determine the priority for inventory enhancement with user preference and resource availability as new dimensions. A baseline inventory case for the state of Virginia revealed a high concentration of (i) manufacturing sectors under the inoperability objective and (ii) service sectors under the economic loss objective. Simulation of enhanced inventory policies for selected critical manufacturing sectors has reduced the recovery period by approximately four days and the expected total economic loss by $33 million. Although the article focuses on enhancing inventory levels in manufacturing sectors, complementary analysis is recommended to manage the resilience of the service sectors. The flexibility of the proposed DCPP as a decision support tool can also be extended to accommodate analysis in other regions and disaster scenarios.     

Interactive Hazards Education Program for Youth in a Low SES Community: A Quasi‐Experimental Pilot Study

A pilot study of an interactive hazards education program was carried out in Canberra (Australia), with direct input from youth participants. Effects were evaluated in relation to youths’ interest in disasters, motivation to prepare, risk awareness, knowledge indicators, perceived preparedness levels, planning and practice for emergencies, and fear and anxiety indicators. Parents also provided ratings, including of actual home‐based preparedness activities. Using a single group pretest‐posttest with benchmarking design, a sample of 20 youths and their parents from a low SES community participated. Findings indicated beneficial changes on a number of indicators. Preparedness indicators increased significantly from pre‐ to posttest on both youth (p < 0.01) and parent ratings (p < 0.01). Parent ratings reflected an increase of just under six home‐based preparedness activities. Youth knowledge about disaster mitigation also was seen to increase significantly (p < 0.001), increasing 39% from pretest levels. While personalized risk perceptions significantly increased (p < 0.01), anxiety and worry levels were seen either not to change (generalized anxiety, p > 0.05) or to reduce between pre‐ and posttest (hazards‐specific fears, worry, and distress, ps ranged from p < 0.05 to < 0.001). In terms of predictors of preparedness, a number of variables were found to predict posttest preparedness levels, including information searching done by participants between education sessions. These pilot findings are the first to reflect quasi‐experimental outcomes for a youth hazards education program carried out in a setting other than a school that focused on a sample of youth from a low SES community.     

Spatial Distribution of Flood Risk and Quality of Spatial Management: Case Study in Odra Valley,Poland

This article presents methodological solutions aimed at presenting the spatial distribution of flood risk and quality of spatial management (land use), indicating both those areas used reasonably and those requiring modification. The purpose was to identify key risk areas and risk‐free areas from the point of view of human security and activity on the floodplains, based on the examples of the vicinities of Wroclaw and Raciborz in the Odra Valley, Poland. Due to recent climate change, Poland has suffered the effects of severe flooding (e.g., 1997, 2001, 2010). The analyses conducted were motivated by the European Parliament and Council's recently implemented Directive 2007/60/WE, as well as by the demand for studies for local spatial planning. The analysis indicates that reasonably developed areas do not account for the majority of those studied, making up 36% of the Wroclaw area and 15% of the Raciborz area.     

Communicating Actionable Risk for Terrorism and Other Hazards⋆

We propose a shift in emphasis when communicating to people when the objective is to motivate household disaster preparedness actions. This shift is to emphasize the communication of preparedness actions (what to do about risk) rather than risk itself. We have called this perspective “communicating actionable risk,” and it is grounded in diffusion of innovations and communication theories. A representative sample of households in the nation was analyzed using a path analytic framework. Preparedness information variables (including content, density, and observation), preparedness mediating variables (knowledge, perceived effectiveness, and milling), and preparedness actions taken were modeled. Clear results emerged that provide a strong basis for communicating actionable risk, and for the conclusion both that information observed (seeing preparedness actions that other have taken) and information received (receiving recommendations about what preparedness actions to take) play key, although different, roles in motivating preparedness actions among the people in our nation.     

The burdens of social capital: How socially-involved people dealt with stress after Hurricane Katrina

Research shows that those with greater social capital enjoy better physical and mental health. The current study illuminates a paradox of social capital which may afflict those involved in traumatic events. Several years of survey data reveal a dynamic picture of the link between social capital and stress following Hurricane Katrina. Results reveal that initially after Katrina, those who were more socially embedded carried the greatest load with respect to helping the displaced population, thus experiencing more stress. But over time, the most socially-involved then snapped back from their stressful experiences more rapidly than isolates. This confirms that over the course of stressful events, social involvement first exposes people to more stress, but as time passes, provides them a significant buffer against negative psychosocial experiences.     

How publics’ active and passive communicative behaviors affect their tornado responses: An integration of STOPS and SMCC

During imminent threat crises, such as natural disasters, publics have minutes to decide how to respond after receiving a warning. This study advances understanding of publics’ crisis communicative and noncommunicative behaviors in the context of tornadoes through combining and extending two theories: the social-mediated crisis communication (SMCC) model and the situational theory of problem solving (STOPS). Findings from a survey of Southeast U.S. residents (n = 1,585) indicate that STOPS is internally consistent and accurate at measuring its intended outcomes of communicative action in problem solving. However, the STOPS measures do not have a significant relationship with the desirable outcome for imminent threat crisis communication: individuals following government’s protective action guidance about tornadoes. In comparison, the expanded SMCC model predicts individuals’ self-reported compliance. Finally, variables from the SMCC model and tornado-specific variables were integrated into the STOPS model to explain individuals’ communicative engagement. Implications for theory and public relations practice are discussed.     

灾害哲学——环境哲学研究的一种新拓展

环境哲学缘起于对当代人类所面临的环境问题的哲学追问。灾害是环境问题的一种极端形态,并在当代社会中蜕变为人类生存环境的一种“常态”,因而有必要予以哲学考察。灾害哲学虽有可能从灾害学或环境哲学中产生,但迄今未戍为现实。而此二者之外的生态理性哲学则探究了世界的原初整体性,创构了生态化综合方法,因而为灾害哲学的探究提供了有益的启迪。不仅如此,生态理性哲学还以灾疫伦理为入口,为灾害哲学的研究作了奠基性的工作：     

灾难事件对生育率的影响：历史经验与现实思考

纵观人类历史,任何一次重大灾难事件都会导致生育率波动变化。灾难事件周期与生育率变动的一般规律为:生育率在灾难事件发生短期内会受挫下降,灾难事件恢复中期内回升反弹,灾后长周期内则回归灾难事件前的变动大趋势。从外在因素的影响看,灾难事件范围越广,波及人口越多且致死率越高,生育率波动越剧烈,疫情和与环境有关的灾难事件可能会对生育能力产生负面影响。从内在因素的影响看,灾害发生地的经济发展水平、教育水平与家庭经济能力、人口年龄结构以及政府的应对能力等会影响生育率波动幅度,但不会改变波动方向。通过影响机制分析,初步观察新冠肺炎疫情所造成的生育率下降是高死亡数量带来的心理冲击、经济衰退、停工停产以及对未来生活预期不明朗和信心减弱综合作用的结果。     

城市外来人口居留意愿的影响因素研究：以苏州市为例

居留意愿和行为是外来人口迁流过程中一项十分重要但又缺乏深入研究的内容。本研究试图以苏州市为例,通过问卷调查的方法,分析城市外来人口居留意愿和居留准备的影响因素,辨析外来人口居留意愿和居留行为之间的相互关系及其影响因素。研究发现,社会变量、迁移变量和制度变量（户口性质除外）都对居留意愿产生显著影响,经济变量产生边际显著影响,而人口学变量无显著影响。受教育年限、是否家庭迁移、月收入、社会融合程度、是否省内迁移、是否有子女在苏就读等变量对居留准备产生显著影响,其他变量未产生显著影响。居留意愿和居留准备对实际居留状态产生显著影响,但它们不是社会经济和制度变量与实际居留状态之间的中介变量。最后,论文指出了本研究存在的不足以及未来改进和深入研究的方向。     

Using GIS in community design charrettes: Lessons from a Japan–U.S. collaboration in earthquake recovery and mitigation planning for Kobe

Charrettes have become popular in the urban design field, especially for use among multidisciplinary teams of professionals and non-professional community stakeholders seeking to incorporate a rich array of expertise in short visioning activities. Geographic Information Systems are among the technologies with potential to provide sophisticated spatial information to charrette participants efficiently. This article reports on a charrette carried out jointly by teams from Kobe University and the University of Washington, Seattle, USA, using GIS to inform urban design in three neighborhoods affected by the Great Hanshin–Awaji Earthquake of 1995 in Kobe, Japan. The article describes the charrette itself, and discusses the utility of GIS, given the challenges of disaster recovery in a context of undeveloped institutions for public participation, and with participants of different linguistic and educational backgrounds. In combination with electronically storable drawing technology, GIS proved useful in enlarging the multidisciplinary and cross-cultural reach of urban design; in incorporating new layers of pre-prepared expert data, and in combining such data with dynamically-generated “advice maps” and design ideas. For GIS-based charrettes to become more widely useful in community-scale design in Japan, however, additional property-scale data need to be available.