乡村社区社会资本对基层政府灾害治理能力的影响

乡村社区居民和基层政府是直面自然灾害的关键主体,其表现出的乡村社区社会资本和基层政府灾害治理能力关系到灾害治理的成效,但是乡村社区社会资本对基层政府灾害治理能力具有怎样的影响,还没有得到相应的解答。本文通过对2013年遭受芦山地震冲击的四川雅安农村社区的研究发现,社区社会资本对基层政府灾害治理能力具有显著影响,其中社区归属感、人际关系亲密度和志愿精神是提升基层政府灾害治理能力的重要社会资本成分,而社区政权参与是链接社区社会资本与基层政府灾害治理能力的关键路径。     

中国完善应急预案的关键问题--对七大关系的考量

预案是应急准备的一项重要内容,但在应急实践中,中国预案的针对性、实用性与可操作性不足,缺少实效性,因此,需完善应急预案。完善应急预案的关键问题在于正确处理应急预案管理中的七大关系,即静态与动态、目标与能力、预测与现实、简单与复杂、分工与协调、详细与灵活、集权与分权的关系。     

Exploring the Predictors of Organizational Preparedness for Natural Disasters

There is an extensive body of research on the determinants of disaster preparedness at the individual and household levels. The same cannot be said for the organizational level. Hence, the purpose of this study is to shed light on the predictors of organizational preparedness for natural disasters. Since leaders of organizations have an incentive to overstate their level of preparedness and because surveys of organizational leaders suffer from selection bias and low response rates, we take the novel approach of interviewing employees about the organizations that employ them. Using an online survey, we collected information from a national sample of 2,008 U.S. employees and estimated the predictors of preparedness at the organizational level. We find, among other results, that organization size (facility level) is a consistent predictor of preparedness at the organizational level. We conclude with policy recommendations and outline an agenda for future research on organizational preparedness for natural disasters.     

Understanding the Economic Costs and Benefits of Catastrophes and Their Aftermath: A Review and Suggestions for the U.S. Federal Government

The number and magnitude of devastating natural and human events make it imperative that we actively and systematically estimate the costs and benefits of policy decisions in affected localities, regions, states, and nations. Such strategic risk management preparedness efforts should forecast well into the future and include scenarios with and without enhanced engineered structures; with reduced vulnerability through land-use planning and design; with the impact of resiliency and mitigation; with evacuation and relocation; and with the costs and benefits of recovery and restoration. We describe different kinds of regional economic models that can be used in these preparedness planning efforts, explore critical data needs, and advocate a shared federal-state-local strategic planning effort to accomplish the objective.     

Children's disaster knowledge,risk perceptions,and preparedness: A cross-country comparison in Nepal and Turkey

While children are one of the groups at risk in disasters, they can also take an active part in disaster management, provided that the opportunity is given. This research examined the effect of disaster experience, disaster education, country, and city socioeconomic status on children's perceived risk and preparedness with a survey of 1335 children between 11 and 14 years old, in Nepal and Turkey. The survey used questionnaires and the pictorial representation of illness and self measure (PRISM) tool. Results showed that (1) children's risk perceptions were in line with their country-specific objective risks; (2) there were differences between the countries in relation to perception of risk for all the hazards except wildfire; (3) socioeconomic status had a statistically significant effect on children's perceptions of risk and preparedness for earthquakes, wildfires, that is, children who live in wealthier places had higher perceived risk and preparedness; (4) children in both countries showed similar trends in their knowledge of the correct protective actions to take in the event of a hazard occurrence. However, there is still room to enhance children's knowledge, in terms of safety behaviors, as the children selected many incorrect protective actions. There are important implications in terms of child-centered disaster management which hopefully will make life safer and help to create more resilience to disaster in society as a whole.     

Before,Now, and After: Assessing Hurricane Katrina Relief

We assess governmental and non-governmental responses to disasters using primary data of Hurricane Katrina survivors along the Mississippi Gulf Coast. Non-governmental sources include nonprofit relief groups, faith-based organizations, and survivors’ self-identified social networks. We assess the impact of these governmental and non-governmental relief efforts on survivors’ economic, psychological, physical, and social effects from the disaster. Our results show that social isolation significantly increases perceptions of disaster disturbance and decreases perceived rates of disaster relief. Additionally, survivors perceive that social networks provide greater sources of psychological, financial and social disaster relief than government sources. However, survivors’ social networks decay sharply in the immediate aftermath of a disaster, and they do not appear to fully recover a year from the disaster. These social networks themselves are not fully resilient to a disaster.

Vulnerability to bushfires in rural Australia: A case study from East Gippsland,Victoria

This paper investigates the nature and causes of vulnerability to bushfires in the Wulgulmerang district of East Gippsland, Victoria, in south-eastern Australia. In 2003 bushfires devastated the small population of this isolated farming district, destroying homes, agricultural assets and public infrastructure. The fires also adversely affected the health, livelihoods and social lives of many local people. The paper examines: (i) how and why people were exposed to hazards during the bushfires; and (ii) how and why people were differentially capable of coping and adapting to the fires' impacts. Qualitative methods were primarily used to investigate these questions, including semi-structured interviews with residents and landholders of the district and others who responded to the fires in an official or unofficial capacity. Vulnerability is shown to arise from the circumstances of people's everyday lives, which are shaped by factors both within and beyond their control. Local pressures and challenges – such as drought, declining farm incomes, depopulation, and the inaccessibility of essential services – are shown to increase people's exposure to hazards and reduce their capacities to cope and adapt. The paper demonstrates the fundamental importance of sustainable livelihoods and regional economic vitality to the long-term goal of vulnerability reduction.     

灾疫伦理：应用伦理研究的视野廓大与重心转移

当代人类进入21世纪以来,以自然灾害和流行性疾病为基本内容的灾难,就变成了日常生活内容,人类为了重建生活的安全感、生存的稳定性和存在的根基,寻求重建生境和家园的根本之道,由是,灾疫伦理学应运而生。灾疫伦理学的诞生及其走向未来的发展,必然肩负起为当代人类创建生态文明世界搭建一座认知桥梁,并为国家灾疫防治和灾疫后重建提供伦理化的实践行动方案。因而,灾疫伦理学的发展,必将为医学伦理学、生命伦理学、公共卫生伦理学、灾害伦理学、制度伦理学、法律伦理学、地球生态伦理学、生物伦理学、科技伦理学、企业伦理学、市场伦理学以及政治学、经济学、社会学、公共政策、管理科学、生态科学、环境科学、人类文化学的发展,提供一种生机勃勃的世界观、价值观和开放的视野与方法。     

Natural disaster preparedness in college students: Implications for institutions of higher learning

Objective: There is growing interest in the effectiveness of disaster preparedness at universities. Although several studies have examined student preparedness perceptions, a better understanding of factors that may influence actual preparedness is needed. Participants: Seven hundred sixty-five undergraduate and graduate students at a southeastern U.S. university completed an online survey in September 2013. Methods: Participants were administered an online survey that included questions regarding disaster preparedness and their experiences with disasters. Results: Students' disaster concern was more related to perceived preparedness over actual preparedness; disaster experience significantly predicted both actual and perceived preparedness. Perceived university preparedness was a significant predictor of disaster concern. Conclusion: The results suggest that perceived and actual preparedness are related but not entirely equivalent, which emphasizes the importance of differentiating the two constructs. Limitations of the current study and recommendations for future research are provided.     

Human Dose–Response Data for Francisella tularensis and a Dose‐ and Time‐Dependent Mathematical Model of Early‐Phase Fever Associated with Tularemia After Inhalation Exposure

Military health risk assessors, medical planners, operational planners, and defense system developers require knowledge of human responses to doses of biothreat agents to support force health protection and chemical, biological, radiological, nuclear (CBRN) defense missions. This article reviews extensive data from 118 human volunteers administered aerosols of the bacterial agent Francisella tularensis , strain Schu S4, which causes tularemia. The data set includes incidence of early‐phase febrile illness following administration of well‐characterized inhaled doses of F. tularensis . Supplemental data on human body temperature profiles over time available from de‐identified case reports is also presented. A unified, logically consistent model of early‐phase febrile illness is described as a lognormal dose–response function for febrile illness linked with a stochastic time profile of fever. Three parameters are estimated from the human data to describe the time profile: incubation period or onset time for fever; rise time of fever; and near‐maximum body temperature. Inhaled dose‐dependence and variability are characterized for each of the three parameters. These parameters enable a stochastic model for the response of an exposed population through incorporation of individual‐by‐individual variability by drawing random samples from the statistical distributions of these three parameters for each individual. This model provides risk assessors and medical decisionmakers reliable representations of the predicted health impacts of early‐phase febrile illness for as long as one week after aerosol exposures of human populations to F. tularensis .