The debt trap: A two-compartment train wreck… and how to avoid it

We explore sustainable paths out of a debt trap with a highly stylized two-sector differential equations model for the stocks of money in Government and Society. The model fits the data for the U.S. between 1981 and 2012 with a coefficient of correlation of 0.996. The solutions provide detailed “escape conditions” from the debt trap. A primary surplus is required. Then a government can escape its debt trap either through sustained annual monetary outflows from society to the government (taxation) but with a low initial growth rate, or through annual monetary inflows into both sectors (stimulus) with higher initial growth rate. We illustrate the use of our model with simulations which show how five indebted countries can escape their debt trap in 30 (or 70) years.     

Credit access,macroprudential rules and policy interventions: Lessons for potential first time buyers

Given the increased popularity of macroprudential measures in the aftermath of the great financial crisis (GFC), a key policy question to arise in certain mortgage markets is whether a significant access to credit issue exists amongst prospective homeowners because of these new policies. In this paper we assess whether such a problem arises in the context of the Irish mortgage market – a market particularly adversely impacted by the GFC. We use a microsimulation model to estimate the level of latent credit demand that could be serviced by the market given prudent credit risk assessment and the current macroprudential regulations. We then compare this demand to current market provision to explore whether a credit gap exists. Finally, we simulate how a public mortgage credit scheme or equity “help-to-buy” type instrument may help credit access. We find both instruments to be effective but would lead to somewhat higher house prices.     

Do people think about absolute or relative price differences when choosing between substitute goods?

The article presents experimental evidence that shows that people often consider relative price differences in addition to absolute differences when choosing between substitute goods. Because the choice between substitute goods is a very common one, this is an important finding. The experiment uses scenarios in various consumption categories: hotel rooms, flights, and books. Subjects were either students or participants in an economics conference. The data allow to reject the hypothesis that people think only about relative price differences in favor of the hypothesis that people think about both relative and absolute price differences. Whether the price given to the subjects is that of the high-quality good or of the low-quality good makes a large difference, a result that is related to the endowment effect and the status quo bias. Implications of the results for business strategy and other areas are also discussed.     

8种血清型禽大肠杆菌的生化反应及药物敏感试验分析

选取具有致病力8种血清（O1、O2、O6、O(35)、O(54)、O(55)、O(78)、O(103)）禽大肠肝菌进行生化反应及药物敏感试验,研究其生化特性及对药物的敏感性。结果表明：8种血清型大肠杆菌生化反应基本一致,所不同的是在卫予醇反应中,（O1、O2、O6、O(35)、O(105)）4种血清型大肠杆菌呈阴性;8种血清型大肠杆菌对了胶卡那霉素、痢特灵、链霉素、卡那霉素、新霉素、红霉素均呈极、高、中、低不同程度敏感,对万古霉素均不敏感;7种（除O6外）血清型大肠杆菌对氯霉素呈极敏感或高敏;6种（除O(35)、O(103)外）血清型大肠肝菌对庆大霉素呈高、中、低度敏感二种（O1、O2、O(54)、O(78)）血清型大肠杆菌对氨苄青霉素呈高度敏感;2种（O1、O2）血清型大肠杆菌对强力霉素、磺胺药、四环素呈中敏或极敏。     

Characterizations based on record values and order statistics

Consider a sequence of independent and identically distributed random variables {_Xi,i?1}$\{X_i,i?1\}$ with a common absolutely continuous distribution function F  . Let _X1:n?_X2:n???_Xn:n$X_{1:n}?X_{2:n}???X_{n:n}$ be the order statistics of {_X1,_X2,…,_Xn}$\{X_1,X_2,\dots ,X_n\}$ and {_Yl,l?1}$\{Y_l,l?1\}$ be the sequence of record values generated by {_Xi,i?1}$\{X_i,i?1\}$. In this work, the conditional distribution of _Yl$Y_l$ given _Xn:n$X_{n:n}$ is established. Some characterizations of F   based on record values and _Xn:n$X_{n:n}$ are then given.     

Semiparametric inference of proportional odds model based on randomly truncated data

This paper studies the estimation in the proportional odds model based on randomly truncated data. The proposed estimators for the regression coefficients include a class of minimum distance estimators defined through weighted empirical odds function. We have investigated the asymptotic properties like the consistency and the limiting distribution of the proposed estimators under mild conditions. The finite sample properties were investigated through simulation study making comparison of some of the estimators in the class. We conclude with an illustration of our proposed method to a well-known AIDS data.     

“教学本位”的前提是“教师本位”——从浙江大学设立“E津贴”谈起

浙江大学设立“E津贴”是为了回归“教学本位”,让更多教师用心从事教学。然而,“E津贴”是站在“行政本位”立场促进教师发展的外因,还没有站在“教师本位”立场深入到教师主体性这个内因,预期效果不容乐观。大学要回归“教学本位”,靠的不仅仅是对教师外在的奖励,还要尊重教师的主体性与发挥教师的主动性,引导教师从被动发展走向主动发展,从注重外职业生涯发展走向注重内职业生涯发展,建设超功利的教师文化,最终促进“教学本位”的回归。     

Replication: Emotional well-being and unemployment – Evidence from the American time-use survey

We use data from the well-being module of the American Time-Use Survey (ATUS) 2010–2013 to reexamine the relationship between unemployment and emotional well-being. We replicate two previous studies (Krueger & Mueller, 2012; Dolan, Kudrna, & Stone, 2017) which have produced differing findings on this relationship, and analyze what factors cause the differences in their outcomes. We find that the results critically depend on the definition of employment statuses and the choice of well-being measure. The unemployed appear sadder and more in pain than the employed, but no other emotion queried in the ATUS has worse values for the unemployed than for the employed. Aggregate emotional well-being measures suggest that unemployment is not negatively related to emotional well-being. Applying a wider instead of narrow definition of unemployment tends to result in better emotional well-being scores for the unemployed, mainly because job leavers and new or re-entrants into the labor market report better emotions than the group of people who are unemployed due to an involuntary job loss.     

Measures of individual risk attitudes and portfolio choice: Evidence from pension participants

We use a large non-student sample to test how distinct measures of risk-attitudes relate to each other, to demographic characteristics and to real-life risk taking in the financial domain. These measures, namely the Bomb Risk Elicitation Task (BRET), self-reported willingness to take risks in general, the choice in a hypothetical lottery, the score in the Domain Specific Risk-Taking (DOSPERT) scale, appear to be positively correlated and exhibit a certain degree of consistency. Furthermore, a subset of these measures is driven by similar demographic characteristics as such that males are more risk seeking and risk-aversion increases with age. Using extensive data on the retirement portfolios of the participants during the years 2008–2014, we find that all of these measures are positively correlated with the riskiness of individual portfolios. The self-reported willingness to take risks in general appears to be the most relevant measure in predicting actual risk-taking behavior.