论长波框架中的世界经济走势

在世界经济增长和发展的过程中 ,存在着四种相互包容、相互叠加的经济周期。 2 0世纪 90年代以来 ,世界经济进入了第五个长波上升期 ,其突出表现是新经济带来的快速增长 ,其动力是作为技术创新和制度创新的信息化和经济全球化。在这次长波上升期中 ,世界经济表现出均等化和两极分化两种趋势 ,从而改变着世界经济格局。在长波上升期中 ,如果没有外生的重大随机冲击 ,短周期和主周期一般来说会出现波动相对弱化现象。     

Estimating chance reproducibility in Guttman Scaling

A definition of reproducibility in Guttman Scaling and two chance measures of reproducibility are suggested. The first measure assumes that the items are independent. The second method assumes nonindependent items and fits respondent and item margins by an iterative method used in fitting log-linear models. Chance reproducibility is conceptualized in terms of assumptions about respondent variability.     

Dynamic models and attainment in the workplace

The two most marked trends in recent stratification studies are: (1) the shift away from a statical approach to attainment and toward a dynamical representation of achievement, and (2) the shift away from the assumption that achievement is largely a matter of individual characteristics, and toward the view that achievement is the outcome of an employer-employee exchange of productive resources for earnings and status. This paper forges a link between these parallel trends by elaborating on previous formulations of dynamic models of achievement and applying the results to the analysis of earnings attainment in an internal labor market. The modeling section of the paper joins within a single framework the growing interest in ascertaining how a given structure of opportunity shapes achievement and in determining the different points in the career line at which individual background and resource variables impact attainment. Special attention is devoted to the problems facing researchers who wish to bring a dynamic conceptualization of achievement to cross-sectional or otherwise deficient data. Although the empirical application of the various models is largely meant to be illustrative, it is of interest in its own right because it goes substantially beyond previous efforts in this area.     

Sex similarities in occupational status attainment: Are the results due to the restriction of the sample to employed women?

Research on sex differences in occupational attainment suggests that working men and working women attain essentially the same mean level of occupational attainment and do so through quite similar processes. A possible explanation for these similarities is that the sample of working women contains an overrepresentation of successful women, since women who can afford not to work will stay out of the labor force unless they find a job commensurate with their education. This we define as a censoring problem. By extending a technique developed by Heckman, we can estimate the structural parameters for all women, regardless of current employment status. This procedure allows us to assess the impact of the censoring problem on women's occupational attainment equations.     

Theory Trimming

This paper attempts to show that the “Theory Trimming” technique makes little contribution to theory in sociology. A brief history of the technique is given, and several key assertions of its proponents are abstracted. These assertions are shown to be highly questionable. The general alternative to Theory Trimming is shown, and the relationship between Theory Trimming and more general orientations to research is discussed.     

跨国公司的技术控制与我国的自主创新战略

外商投资企业与其在华建立研发机构的巨大悬殊性,及其在华研发机构控股化、独资化运作模式决定了外资企业研发机构不可能成为我国科技发展的有力助手。其对华实施的“研发链分工”和“技术标准”战略,决定了我国必须走自主创新之路。为此,政府应该积极转变角色,并充分发挥采购制度对技术创新的促进作用,努力创造一个鼓励创新的良好环境。而企业也应该抛弃照搬他人技术的行为,积极引导员工加强内部管理,开展创新活动,形成自己的创新性技术。     

西部地区产业升级的推动力分析

产业结构是重要的经济结构 ,产业升级对经济发展有积极的促进作用。本文着重分析了西部地区产业升级的影响因素 ,指出技术进步和政策因素是其产业升级最基本的推动力 ,西部地区应通过发展技术和制度创新来促进产业结构优化     

哈军工与哈工大之关系及其他(1952-1954)——以哈尔滨军事工程学院档案为主

1952—1954年,苏联援助新中国创办的第一所高等军事技术学府哈尔滨军事工程学院与20世纪20年代以苏联为主创建的哈尔滨工业大学之间,有着许多鲜为人知的关系。哈尔滨军事工程学院在选择校址、学科建设、师资培养以及学员实习等教学环节,大都是在充分考虑哈尔滨工业大学这一因素的前提下确定的、尤其是陈康白担任哈尔滨工业大学校长期间,在自身师资缺乏的情况下,积极支援哈尔滨军事工程学院的教学和师资队伍建设,为国防科技人才的培养做出了积极的贡献。两校之间这种非同寻常的关系,在很大程度上是由于苏联全面介入新中国高等教育,尤其是国防科技工业领域所致,继而对各自产生十分不同的影响,耐人寻味。     

数字化的哲学局限与美学悖论

对数字化技术的价值探析，需要有人文理性的意义维度，以廓清其与人类预设的文化命意和精神旨趣相协同的可能限度，即数字化技术方式背后的哲学局限与艺术美学悖论。前者表现为数字标准化对事物个性意义体认的限制，数字平面化对事物深度认知复杂性的限制和数字的知识化对意志自由的限制；后者则蕴含了数字虚拟与艺术真实、文学在线与文学性消散、个体中心与主体边缘、精神临场与身体缺席等方面的对立与统一。