西北地区回族、撒拉族、维吾尔族民间婚俗舞蹈比较研究(连载)

在甘、青、宁和新疆地区 ,在民间婚礼中 ,曾经活跃着三种婚俗性的民间舞蹈表演。然而 ,随着历史的推进 ,也出现了舞蹈历史兴衰的现象。本文以生活在中国西北地区的撒拉族、回族、维吾尔族的婚礼中的舞蹈为研究对象 ,在大量第一手调查资料、文献资料的基础上 ,试图分析《堆依奥依纳》、《宴席舞》、《纳孜尔库姆》这三种婚俗舞蹈各自兴衰的过程     

民国时期甘宁青边疆教育研究述评

推行边疆教育是南京国民政府的一项重要举措,在当时取得了一定成效。对此问题的研究具有积极的现实意义。本文对民国以来甘宁青边疆教育研究状况进行简要述评,并提出今后应注重研究的问题。     

An improved alternative estimation procedure for current population mean in presence of positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables in two-occasion rotation patterns

Abstract

The present study confirms the influential role of a positively and a negatively correlated auxiliary variables in enhancing the precision of estimates of current population mean in two occasion rotation (successive) sampling. Exponential-type estimators of current population mean have been proposed for three different situations: (i) the information on a positively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions (ii) the information on a negatively correlated auxiliary variable is readily available on both occasions and (iii) the information on both positively and negatively correlated auxiliary variables are readily available on both the occasions. The characteristics of the proposed estimators have been explored and their efficacious performances are compared with the natural and recent contemporary estimators. Optimum replacement strategies of the proposed estimation procedures have been formulated. Simulation and empirical studies are carried out to justify the proposition of the proposed estimators and appropriate recommendations have been put forward to the survey practitioners.     

Distribution of the two‐sample t‐test statistic following blinded sample size re‐estimation

We consider the blinded sample size re‐estimation based on the simple one‐sample variance estimator at an interim analysis. We characterize the exact distribution of the standard two‐sample t‐test statistic at the final analysis. We describe a simulation algorithm for the evaluation of the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis at given treatment effect. We compare the blinded sample size re‐estimation method with two unblinded methods with respect to the empirical type I error, the empirical power, and the empirical distribution of the standard deviation estimator and final sample size. We characterize the type I error inflation across the range of standardized non‐inferiority margin for non‐inferiority trials, and derive the adjusted significance level to ensure type I error control for given sample size of the internal pilot study. We show that the adjusted significance level increases as the sample size of the internal pilot study increases. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Model averaging inconcentration–QT analyses

This article describes how a frequentist model averaging approach can be used for concentration–QT analyses in the context of thorough QTc studies. Based on simulations, we have concluded that starting from three candidate model families (linear, exponential, and Emax) the model averaging approach leads to treatment effect estimates that are quite robust with respect to the control of the type I error in nearly all simulated scenarios; in particular, with the model averaging approach, the type I error appears less sensitive to model misspecification than the widely used linear model. We noticed also few differences in terms of performance between the model averaging approach and the more classical model selection approach, but we believe that, despite both can be recommended in practice, the model averaging approach can be more appealing because of some deficiencies of model selection approach pointed out in the literature. We think that a model averaging or model selection approach should be systematically considered for conducting concentration–QT analyses. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Exponentiality Test Based on the Progressive Type II Censoring via Cumulative Entropy

In this article, we use cumulative residual Kullback-Leibler information (CRKL) and cumulative Kullback-Leibler information (CKL) to construct two goodness-of-fit test statistics for testing exponentiality with progressively Type-II censored data. The power of the proposed tests are compared with the power of goodness-of-fit test for exponentiality introduced by Balakrishnan et al. (2007 Balakrishnan, N., Habibi Rad, A., Arghami, N.R. (2007). Testing exponentiality based on Kullback-Leibler information with progressively type-II censored data. IEEE Transactions on Reliability 56(2):301–307.[Crossref], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]). We show that when the hazard function of the alternative is monotone decreasing, the test based on CRKL has higher power and when the hazard function of the alternative is non-monotone, the test based on CKL has higher power. But, when it is monotone increasing the power difference between test based on CKL and their proposed test is not so remarkable. The use of the proposed tests is shown in an illustrative example.     

基于自组织的大型建筑企业控制力协同进化研究

针对大型建筑企业控制力动态协同的定量化仿真问题,基于复杂系统视角,应用自组织理论分析大型建筑企业控制力自组织耦合网络作用关系,选择有效朗之万方程构建大型建筑企业控制力系统的自组织协同进化模型,通过线性近似法的性态稳定求解非线性方程的稳定性,得出大型建筑企业控制力系统协同进化演化过程的四个决定性参数,并通过MATLAB软件进行参数枚举取值,具体分析企业控制力协同演化。案例验证该模型可对大型建筑企业控制力协同演化最佳状态实现更加精确的参数取值,并发现大型建筑企业控制力协同演化最佳状态的充要条件,以及一种新的大型建筑企业控制力协同演化状态。     

Modeling Demand For Unionization With Nontraditional Data Analysis Methods

Upon reviewing the extant literature on determinants of unionism, it becomes clear that many areas that have had a plethora of research attention do not converge upon singularly directional findings. This study explores a potential cause of such an apparent anomaly: nonlinearity of data. An exploratory examination of correlation coefficients among typical union determinant variables seems to show different patterns of relationships at different levels of union demand. Thus, a break from traditional linear data analysis techniques is explored in the interest of explaining more variance with typical, theoretically derived variables by using neural network analysis. Results of analyses on industry level data reveal that using neural network analysis to model union demand explained over four times as much variance as multiple regression analysis.     

学术道路自述

回顾几十年来学术研究的道路,开始把鲁迅研究以专著形式系列化。这里的系列,只能说是“小系”,而不是“大系”。在这基础上,扩大研究领域,撰写关于中国现代小说研究,现代文学史研究的论著,同时进行散文创作,出版几本散文集。学术界的前辈、同辈、后辈的学者,在著作和文章中对我的论著、作品,进行热情的评论、分析,至感。     

我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应

使用事件研究法,分析了我国公司发行可转换债券的市场反应。研究表明,我国公司发行可转换债券后市场没有出现显著负的反应,与股权再融资的市场反应明显不同,与国外可转换债券发行的市场反应有差异。政府的奖优政策是可转换债券市场反应特殊性的重要原因。