民族地区发展可再生能源的现实分析及政策选择

可再生能源分布与民族地区存在高度一致性,民族地区发展可再生能源,具有重大的现实意义和战略意义.与传统化石能源开发利用对生态环境造成的破坏和压力相比,民族地区利用资源优势和政策机制发展可再生能源,不仅可以缓解能源不足的压力,改善能源结构,更能有效改善经济发展与自然、环境之间的矛盾或冲突,实现经济的可持续发展.     

Seasonal patterns of global oil consumption: Implications for long term energy policy

The dynamic evolution of the seasonal patterns in world oil consumption is dictated by complex interactions between regional consumers. Although this global pattern was stable and predictable in the past, recently it has undergone dramatic changes that have not been well understood yet. This paper contributes to literature on oil consumption behaviours by analysing the counter-balance of ‘coincident’ and ‘counter-directional’ regional seasonal patterns that have time-varying amplitude relative to their longer-term trends. It is shown that the recent global seasonal changes have been mainly driven by long-run demand trends in fast-growing emerging markets and, to a lesser extent, by idiosyncratic changes in regions’ seasonal amplitude. Our analysis is relevant to energy policy in general as both global and regional oil consumption seasonality have important implications for oil pricing, investment decisions, hedging, geopolitics and energy security.     

Proximity (Mis)perception: Public Awareness of Nuclear,Refinery, and Fracking Sites

Whether on grounds of perceived safety, aesthetics, or overall quality of life, residents may wish to be aware of nearby energy sites such as nuclear reactors, refineries, and fracking wells. Yet people are not always accurate in their impressions of proximity. Indeed, our data show that only 54% of Americans living within 25 miles of a nuclear site say they do, and even fewer fracking-proximal (30%) and refinery-proximal (24%) residents respond accurately. In this article, we analyze factors that could either help people form more accurate perceptions or distort their impressions of proximity. We evaluate these hypotheses using a large national survey sample and corresponding geographic information system (GIS) data. Results show that among those living in close proximity to energy sites, those who perceive greater risk are less likely to report living nearby. Conversely, social contact with employees of these industries increases perceived proximity regardless of actual distance. These relationships are consistent across each site type we examine. Other potential factors—such as local news use—may play a role in proximity perception on a case-by-case basis. Our findings are an important step toward a more generalizable understanding of how the public forms perceptions of proximity to risk sites, showing multiple potential mechanisms of bias.     

Evaluations of utility residential conservation programs in the Pacific Northwest: A critical review

Pacific Northwest utilities have sponsored the nation's earliest and most thorough residential conservation programs. The Northwest region also leads in the quality, quantity, and usefulness of utility-sponsored program evaluations. This article critically reviews the methods and findings of four major Northwest utility program evaluations. Recommendations for future evaluation and program management efforts also are discussed.     

论侵权行为法上的因果关系--兼评因果关系两分法

两大法系因果关系两分法在内容上存在差异,英美法系因其结构和内容所要求,有其存在的合理性,而大陆法系其存在的意义则不大.因此,不能简单地套搬因果关系的两分法,在我国,侵权行为法上的因果关系就是事实上的因果关系,至于国外因果关系的认定方法则可采用和借鉴.     

Potential gains from specialization and diversification further to the reorganization of activities

In economic activities, two main forces guide firm and market structures: specialization and diversification. This paper provides new insights on this topic. We propose measuring gains due to simulated division and/or merger processes of firms. Potential gains come from a reorganization of activities through specialization/diversification and/or size effects. From a database of French farms, our findings demonstrate that even if both processes are beneficial for farming systems, the division gains outweigh the gains obtained by a merger. Moreover, mix changes are more important following a division than following a merger, implying more specialization gains than diversification gains.     

上海能源、环境与产业选择之间的关系研究

在上海经济持续发展的同时，必然带来能源消耗和污染排放的增加。在资源和环境的硬约束条件下，通过进一步调整产业结构，保证经济持续稳定增长，是我们面临的最紧迫的难题。首先，要提高能源保障能力，不断优化能源结构，加快提升能源技术研发能力和产业能级。其次，要加快调整能源结构。再次，加快突破提升能源产业。要以新能源技术为突破口，加速新能源技术创新，要使新能源利用更安全、更经济，为上海清洁能源利用和产业结构升级带来了历史性机遇。     

Bayesian analysis of single-molecule experimental data

Summary.  Recent advances in experimental technologies allow scientists to follow biochemical processes on a single-molecule basis, which provides much richer information about chemical dynamics than traditional ensemble-averaged experiments but also raises many new statistical challenges. The paper provides the first likelihood-based statistical analysis of the single-molecule fluorescence lifetime experiment designed to probe the conformational dynamics of a single deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA) hairpin molecule. The conformational change is initially treated as a continuous time two-state Markov chain, which is not observable and must be inferred from changes in photon emissions. This model is further complicated by unobserved molecular Brownian diffusions. Beyond the simple two-state model, a competing model that models the energy barrier between the two states of the DNA hairpin as an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process has been suggested in the literature. We first derive the likelihood function of the simple two-state model and then generalize the method to handle complications such as unobserved molecular diffusions and the fluctuating energy barrier. The data augmentation technique and Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are developed to sample from the posterior distribution desired. The Bayes factor calculation and posterior estimates of relevant parameters indicate that the fluctuating barrier model fits the data better than the simple two-state model.     

海湾六国的可持续发展及其对中国的启示

海湾六国的经济和社会有着许多的共同特征。从整体来看经济结构单一，主要以石油为主，普遍存在本国国民失业率高的现象。石油收入是这些国家的主要财政来源，但“石油经济”从长期来看是不可持续的，最根本的原因在于石油资源的不可再生性。海湾六国政府实行了经济多元化政策以期早日摆脱对石油的依赖，向可持续方向发展。但可持续发展并非局限在经济方面，还包括了社会和生态环境的可持续发展，即关注环保和有效利用资源。本文以海湾六国为例简析了可持续发展面临的主要问题、实施战略及影响因素，这为中国的可持续发展提供了重要启示。     

新世纪中国对中东产油国的石油外交

石油需求在中国能源发展中以不以人们意志为转移的方式增长。中国的石油外交也成为新世纪中国外交的主旋律。中东石油在中国海外油源中占有特殊地位，中国非常重视发展与中东产油国的能源合作关系。国家利益是国际关系中驱动国家互动的最基本要素，中国石油外交最重要的考量亦是国家利益，中国对中东产油国的石油外交具有政治与经济利益相辅相成、互动互利的特点。石油对中国经济持续高速增长极为重要，“石油经济”成为中国经济持续增长的关键，由此凸现了石油外交对中国经济发展的重要性。