基于资源风险的战略联盟结构模式选择

综合考虑各种资源的特性以及从风险产生的基础和决定风险的根本因素是公司投入的 资源的角度,提出将资源和风险整合,分析战略联盟的结构模式选择问题. 通过对资源、风险、 战略联盟的结构模式分类,建立了反映资源—风险—结构模式选择三者间关系的概念模型及 其相关的判断假说,并运用因子分析及结构方程的方法对所提出的假说进行验证. 研究结论认 为:资源、风险和战略联盟结构模式的选择偏好之间确实存在着紧密的联系. 公司管理者对战 略联盟结构模式选择偏好受到管理者对未来公司在战略联盟中风险的主观评价的影响,而公 司对战略联盟投入的资源是影响公司对风险主观评价的重要因素.     

微篇小说的命名及其艺术特质

从小说历史演进的逻辑进程、称量标准、批评界和读者的反馈效果三方面证明用“微篇小说”作为比短篇小说还要短的一大类小说的统合名称，要比采用微型小说、小小说等称呼更科学。在艺术特质上，它不宜专注于情节的曲折与结尾的非凡，而应该更多地倾注心力于作品内涵的演化或升华。就艺术规范而论，它完全可以在“故事＋戏剧性”的模式之外，另走出散文化、小品化、诗化道路，走出戏剧体式、电影体式、寓言体式、神话模式等多种文体样式。它具有极大的统合性、包融性，可以大大拓宽创作与批评的艺术思维空间     

CI与CS评价比较及其整合构想

本文对CI与CS战略管理就两者的系统结构、系统传导、系统动力、系统反馈与系统绩效等进行了比较分析与评价,在此基础上就整合两者的管理模式,弹性管理等提出了初步构设．     

中国省际农村居民收入分配的动态演变:2001-2009年

近十年是我国经济发展变化最快的一段时期,然而“三农”问题日益突出,农民收入是亟待解决的根本问题。本文利用趋同检验、核密度估计以及转移矩阵等方法刻画了我国省际农村居民收入分配的动态演变。实证分析表明,我国贫困地区农村居民收入水平比富裕地区有更高的增长率,从而导致省际农村收入差距呈逐渐缩小趋势,但不同省份的相对收入状况的变动却有所不同。     

An optimal selection of two-level regular single arrays for robust parameter experiments

Efforts have been made in the literature to find optimal single arrays which work best for the robust parameter experiments. However, examples show that in many cases the optimal designs obtained by the existing criteria cloud not attain the maximum number of clear interested effects for robust parameter experiments. In this paper, through a similar way of Zhang et al. (2008) (ZLZA, in short), an aliasing pattern to measure the confounding between the interested effects and other effects for the case of robust parameter designs is introduced. A new criterion for selecting optimal two-level regular single arrays is proposed. In the consideration of the criterion, two rank-orders of effects are suggested: one is based on the interest of experimenters and the other is under the usual effect hierarchy principle. The optimal designs are tabulated in the appendix.     

Handling of missing data in long‐term clinical trials: a case study

Missing data in clinical trials is a well‐known problem, and the classical statistical methods used can be overly simple. This case study shows how well‐established missing data theory can be applied to efficacy data collected in a long‐term open‐label trial with a discontinuation rate of almost 50%. Satisfaction with treatment in chronically constipated patients was the efficacy measure assessed at baseline and every 3 months postbaseline. The improvement in treatment satisfaction from baseline was originally analyzed with a paired t‐test ignoring missing data and discarding the correlation structure of the longitudinal data. As the original analysis started from missing completely at random assumptions regarding the missing data process, the satisfaction data were re‐examined, and several missing at random (MAR) and missing not at random (MNAR) techniques resulted in adjusted estimate for the improvement in satisfaction over 12 months. Throughout the different sensitivity analyses, the effect sizes remained significant and clinically relevant. Thus, even for an open‐label trial design, sensitivity analysis, with different assumptions for the nature of dropouts (MAR or MNAR) and with different classes of models (selection, pattern‐mixture, or multiple imputation models), has been found useful and provides evidence towards the robustness of the original analyses; additional sensitivity analyses could be undertaken to further qualify robustness. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian inference for pairwise interacting point processes

Pairwise interacting point processes are commonly used to model spatial point patterns. To perform inference, the established frequentist methods can produce good point estimates when the interaction in the data is moderate, but some methods may produce severely biased estimates when the interaction in strong. Furthermore, because the sampling distributions of the estimates are unclear, interval estimates are typically obtained by parametric bootstrap methods. In the current setting however, the behavior of such estimates is not well understood. In this article we propose Bayesian methods for obtaining inferences in pairwise interacting point processes. The requisite application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques is complicated by an intractable function of the parameters in the likelihood. The acceptance probability in a Metropolis-Hastings algorithm involves the ratio of two likelihoods evaluated at differing parameter values. The intractable functions do not cancel, and hence an intractable ratio r must be estimated within each iteration of a Metropolis-Hastings sampler. We propose the use of importance sampling techniques within MCMC to address this problem. While r may be estimated by other methods, these, in general, are not readily applied in a Bayesian setting. We demonstrate the validity of our importance sampling approach with a small simulation study. Finally, we analyze the Swedish pine sapling dataset (Strand 1972) and contrast the results with those in the literature.     

Isomorphism check in fractional factorial designs via letter interaction pattern matrix

Two fractional factorial designs are considered isomorphic if one can be obtained from the other by relabeling the factors, reordering the runs, and/or switching the levels of factors. To identify the isomorphism of two designs is known as an NP hard problem. In this paper, we propose a three-dimensional matrix named the letter interaction pattern matrix (LIPM) to characterize the information contained in the defining contrast subgroup of a regular two-level design. We first show that an LIPM could uniquely determine a design under isomorphism and then propose a set of principles to rearrange an LIPM to a standard form. In this way, we can significantly reduce the computational complexity in isomorphism check, which could only take O(2^p)+O(3k³)+O(2^k) operations to check two 2^k−p designs in the worst case. We also find a sufficient condition for two designs being isomorphic to each other, which is very simple and easy to use. In the end, we list some designs with the maximum numbers of clear or strongly clear two-factor interactions which were not found before.     

我国荒漠化防治的组织模式探析

客观、辩证地分析了我国荒漠化防治传统组织模式以及中国农户式生产组织方式的利弊。在此基础上,提出了适应荒漠化地区的文化特点和自然资源的特性,并符合中国西北地区工作规律的荒漠化防治"内散外敛型"组织模式,这有利于有限水资源的集约有效利用。     

区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变分析

基于自组织机制与动力学模型,分析了区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变的初始势位阶段、能量需求阶段、能量重组阶段、新势位阶段四个自组织演进过程,及推动区域技术创新绩效空间结构演变的相互作用、自身积累与外部动力三大动力源,在这些动力因素及势位的随机涨落过程中,产生了区域技术创新绩效的聚集或离散现象。然后,从宏观因素、微观因素及关联因素三个角度总结归纳了区域技术创新绩效空间格局演变的影响因素。