房价波动、收入水平与消费支出

房价波动对城镇居民消费的影响引起广泛关注。选取重庆市不同收入水平城镇居民的收入、消费面板数据,以及从重庆“一圈两翼”划分的区域消费差异进行比较,考察了房价波动对收入和消费的影响。引入反映宏观经济水平的人均GDP年度指数和储蓄额年度增长率作为控制变量,利用股票筹资额构造房屋销售价格的工具变量做实证研究。结果表明：房价波动下重庆市城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费支出间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。提高居民收入水平、调整收入分配结构、加大民生工程投资,是增加消费支出的有效途径。     

准公共产品价格改革:城镇居民消费力的助推器

通过分析近十年城镇居民的消费性支出及收入情况发现,准公共产品支出渐渐成为居民生活的主要负担,加剧贫富差距的扩大,制约着城镇居民消费力的提升。     

美国联邦文官考试制度的起源及其历史演变

考试制度是美国联邦文官制度的核心。19 世纪中后期美国联邦政府实行文官考试制度伊始,这一制度在一个多世纪的历史发展中不断得到调整与完善。从1883年《彭德尔顿法》颁布时所确立的“实用性”原则与“专才”结构、20世纪中期从理论上到实践中所增加的“通才”考试内容、20 世纪后期取消对以黑人为主的少数种族在考试方式方法上的歧视以及新旧世纪之交加强文官主管机构(联邦人事管理总署)对考试的责任,进一步反映出美国文官考试制度的发展与演变。     

试析奥地利1866年战败原因

奥普争霸是影响德意志统一运动进程的关键因素,在争霸斗争中奥地利最终于1866年战败,主要原因是:奥地利独立的大国政策使其更关心王朝利益,加之帝国重心东移,造成其日益偏离德意志的趋向:奥地利政治、经济上的落后状态使其逐渐丧失在德意志的优势地位;奥地利外交挫折。     

民俗节日的继承和演变

民俗节日是每一个民族都有的重要民俗事象。各种不同的节日在历史长河中,呈现出不同的发展轨迹,有的产生了变形和变质。在中国,保存得最好的是过年习俗。然而年俗也在发展演变之中,行之数千年的年俗活动,随着时代的变迁而被打上某种新的印记,这是这一民俗风习具有生命力的标志,也是它至今犹存的重要原因。而今人可以做并应该做的,就是保存传统的节日习俗有利于现代生活的内容,并按现代、科学的精神去改善它们。     

Querulous Citizens: Welfare Knowledge and the Limits to Welfare Reform

Governments face pressures to improve services and (at the same time) to contain taxes and to ensure that their decisions are accountable to increasingly well‐informed and challenging citizens. The dilemma of “squaring the welfare circle” confronts New Labour in a particularly acute form, since the party has set ambitious targets for improvements in the NHS, education and elsewhere, and is also committed to economic prudence and transparency. This article uses new data from a major national survey to investigate knowledge and beliefs in the main policy areas. It shows that most people are generally strikingly well‐informed in some areas and ill‐informed in others. A government which wishes to pursue a progressive direction in redistribution, increasing taxation of the better‐off, or expanding provision for those on low incomes, faces real difficulties because many people hold inaccurate beliefs about policy impact and the policy context in these areas. However, NHS costs are more accurately perceived across the population, and the proposed expansion is likely to create less controversy. Current high‐profile policies appear to follow the contours of public knowledge reasonably accurately, but further policy development will require positive efforts to lead debates and improve public knowledge.     

How Do Behavioral Assumptions Affect Structural Inference? Evidence From a Laboratory Experiment

We develop a model of labor force status (federal employment, nonfederal employment, unemployment, and out of the labor force) that depends on human capital variables, local labor market conditions, and personal characteristics. According to the estimated model for white non-Hispanic males and females a substantial difference exists between blacks and white non-Hispanics even after correction for the control variables. However, the control variables explain almost all of the difference between Hispanics and white non-Hispanics.     

Goals for Statistical Uses of Administrative Records: The Next 10 Years

United States statistical agencies use data from administrative record systems to develop program statistics, to establish statistical data bases, and to enhance and evaluate census and survey data. Such uses of administrative records are likely to increase as efforts to control costs and respondent burden of statistical programs continue. This review article proposes six goals for enhanced statistical uses of administrative records in the next 10 years and describes elements of an activist strategy to achieve them. The discussants, representing three agencies that make important statistical uses of administrative records, give their reactions to the proposed goals and strategy.     

Developing “A Framework for Planning U.S. Federal Statistics, 1978–1989”

The Statistical Policy Division of the Office of Management and Budget has the overall responsibility for the planning and coordination of U.S. government statistics. The present staff of the Statistical Policy Division is attempting, through an integrated publication entitled “A Framework for Planning U.S. Federal Statistics, 1978–1989,” to state its perspective on necessary developments in the coming years. This article illustrates the character of the Framework materials and outlines the process for public review and comment on this undertaking.