International cooperation in stockpiles and tariffs for coping with oil supply disruptions

This paper provides a unified treatment of oil stockpiling and demand restraint as policy responses for enhancing energy security and examines the implications of recent changes in the structure and performance of the international oil market for the design of policies. These issues are addressed using a dynamic programming framework in which international policy actions of key oil-importing countries are modeled as a Nash dynamic game. Significant policy implications from the analysis include: (1) the result that, with realistic assumptions about disruption risks and inventory capacities, differences between noncooperative and coordinated stockpile policies appear to be minor and (2) significant mutual gains could be reaped from a modest degree of collective restraint on normal market oil demand. The broader role of international cooperation in enhancing energy security is also discussed.     

浅议高校学生管理的发展趋势

本文分析了目前高校学生管理中面临的问题.分析认为现行学生管理体制改革滞后于市场经济的发展要求,对素质教育的蓬勃兴起及弹性学制的实施反映迟钝,管理思想上差异性较大,同时网络技术的发展对学生管理提出了新挑战等.在此基础上,预测未来学生管理将向法制化、指导、咨询、服务化、网络化、层次化、多元化方向发展.     

当前全球居民消费价格水平(CPI)变动状况、原因及未来走势

 内容提要:本文分析当前世界主要国家居民消费价格水平（CPI）变动状况、原因及未来走势。分析表明，当前全球通胀处于温和状态，但通胀压力有所加大。     

中沙关系回顾与展望

中国和沙特政治制度不同,但两国发展积极友好的关系没有障碍。目前,沙特是中国在西亚和非洲最大的贸易伙伴,两国经贸合作前景广阔。同时,中沙双方均奉行独立自主的外交政策,拥有良好的政治关系,未来在区域组织和联合国等国际舞台上将有更广泛的合作领域。     

Optimal control designs using predicting densities for the multivariate linear model

We provide an application of a variety of predicting densities to quality control involving multivariate normal linear models. We produce optimal control designs for single muleivaiiate future observations using predicting densities employing estimative, profile likelihood, Hinkley-Lauritzen, Butler, Bayesian, and Parametric Bootstrap methodologies. The decision-theoretic optimality criterion is an intuitively appealing quadratic consumer-producer risk function. The optimal control design arising from an optimal Kullback-Leibler frequentist prediction density is shown to coincide with that arising from an optimal Kullback-Leibler Bayesian predictive density. An example involving EVOP is provided to illustrate the methodology and to raise questions concerning the relative merics of the variety of predictive approaches in the quality control context.     

Statistical issues in developing indicators of sustainable development

This paper describes the background to the development of a new official set of national indicators of sustainable development—one of the first in the world to be published. The paper discusses the role of statisticians in helping to define sustainable development, and the problems of monitoring and reporting progress. The Minister of State for the Environment has announced his ambition of developing a very small set of headline indicators. This paper is intended to help to stimulate the debate over what they should be.     

未来小学教育家的专业培养图景

专业情意作为教师教育的前提是教师专业情感得以归旨的精神家园,东北师范大学小学教育专业从专业理想、教育信念、个人兴趣三个纬度采取了系列措施;基于对个性化生命尊重的理念,我们赋予学生以自主学习者的身份定位,东北师范大学小学教育专业尤为重视作为学生真实样态表达方式的体验,体验是学生对世界的整体把握,在体验关键点有教师的意义引领;综合素养是小学教师的独特性标识,为此,东北师范大学小学教育专业在实践中凝练了综合素养的几个核心要点。     

集体记忆：主题拓展与研究展望

集体记忆是一个重要的社会课题,已经有学者在关注和研究它。在未来的集体记忆研究中需要重视主题领域的拓展,应该在宏观层面上重视社会变迁对不同群体集体记忆现象的影响关系,尤其是重视国际化的政治经济联盟、民族争斗、国内文化变迁导致的新群体和边缘群体的集体记忆特点;在微观层次上要超越以往研究的限制和藩篱,在研究主题、视角、方法以及理论建构方面取得更大的突破,促进集体记忆研究的完善和体系化。     

人类命运共同体与“中韩命运共同体”:对韩国舆论的分析

相较欧美舆论,韩国舆论对人类命运共同体理念关注度较高,态度更为中立、积极。其关注动机有两点,一是对中国外交路线、中韩关系、国际新秩序探索、国际合作等议题的高度关切;二是对文在寅政府依循该理念提出的"中韩命运共同体"的关注。韩国舆论对人类命运共同体理念在促进地区和平与一体化、加强文化价值传播、增进人类健康福祉等方面抱有期待,亦在"中美争霸"、新"天下秩序"、民族主义等多维度存有疑虑。为扭转人类命运共同体理念对韩传播时呈现的抽象化、单向化倾向,中国应重视该理念与韩国重点关注议题与主流价值——如"东亚共同体"、多边主义、朝鲜半岛和平机制、环境卫生合作等的话语对接,在全球合作抗疫的背景下促进人类命运共同体理念的对外传播。