基于马尔可夫域变模型的上海股市收益率非线性特征分析

针对股市收益率在不同时期内具有不同的均值、波动性和持续性等非线性特征,引入马尔可夫域变模型（MRSM）对上海股市收益率的均值与波动性的对应关系以及高、低收益率状态转换特征进行分析,结果表明马尔可夫域变模型与GARCH类模型相比较,显著地提高了对股票市场行为的描述能力。它不仅可以从动态角度明确刻画金融市场的“收益与风险”相对称的特征,而且可测定不同状态持续的可能性和由一种状态转向另一种状态的概率。     

What makes a developmental network state durable?

As dynamic collaborations between networks of specialists have become more central to developing cutting-edge innovations, designing and sustaining innovation policies that foster them has become an increasingly central concern. This article reviews the characteristics of the “developmental network” or “neo-developmental” states that have been shown to foster innovations at the technological horizon. It then analyzes the US case to suggest why some developmental network approaches to governance have proven relatively durable, while others have not. We conclude with a discussion of what can – and cannot – be learned from the US case, and suggest the importance of comparative work on the sustainability of effective innovation-centered approaches to governance.     

The three worlds of emigration policy: towards a theory of sending state regimes

Migration theory has historically dismissed the role of sending states in labour migration, with theories grounded in social and economic mechanisms that left little room for political interventions. The theory was supported by evidence from major cases, like that of Mexico, in which sending state policies were understood to be either altogether absent, or overridden by other processes. However, migration flows have changed significantly in the neoliberal era, and these changes have produced different policy orientations among sending states. Many sending states – the Philippines is a prominent example – now have explicit migration management policies that are geared towards promoting and facilitating particular types of labour migration. Even sending countries without such programmes have policies to manage relations with their diaspora, whose remittances now play critical roles in their economies. Drawing from primary case studies of the Mexican, Moroccan, and Philippine cases, with additional evidence from a number of key cases, I propose a tripartite typology for theorising sending state interventions in labour migration.     

Administration, Globalization, and the Arab States

Globalization involves risks and opportunities for the Arab world. Realistic knowledge of these possibilities is essential for adaptation of governance and reform of public administration to deal more effectively with the unfolding processes of globalization. To be participants rather than mere subjects, the Arab states have to recognize opportunities and limit potential negative consequences. Success requires good governance and professional public management. Public administration in the Arab world has to transform traditional methods of command and control and nepotism into a more collaborative management that relies on institutional capabilities and practicing managerial values of accountability, performance evaluation, transparency, and ethics.

考虑对称性冲击的时变信息风险测量

准确测量股票信息风险对资产定价、风险管理和市场业绩的衡量均具有重要的作用． 针对Duarte 和Young 模型中参数假设为常数这一缺陷,采用已有金融文献使用交易量建模消息状态概率和对称性订单流冲击概率的方法,允许Duarte 和Young 模型中的消息发生概率和对称性订单流冲击概率均时变,从而提出了时变信息风险测量模型,该模型可以测量日间和日内两个时间窗口的APIN 和PSOS． 进一步通过选取我国股市交易活跃股票的交易数据,实证比较了所建构的时变信息风险测量模型与Duarte 和Young 模型对数据的拟合效果及其对价差的解释能力． 最后,实证研究了我国股市的周内信息风险的特征．     

ESTIMATING COMPONENTS IN FINITE MIXTURES AND HIDDEN MARKOV MODELS

When the unobservable Markov chain in a hidden Markov model is stationary the marginal distribution of the observations is a finite mixture with the number of terms equal to the number of the states of the Markov chain. This suggests the number of states of the unobservable Markov chain can be estimated by determining the number of mixture components in the marginal distribution. This paper presents new methods for estimating the number of states in a hidden Markov model, and coincidentally the unknown number of components in a finite mixture, based on penalized quasi‐likelihood and generalized quasi‐likelihood ratio methods constructed from the marginal distribution. The procedures advocated are simple to calculate, and results obtained in empirical applications indicate that they are as effective as current available methods based on the full likelihood. Under fairly general regularity conditions, the methods proposed generate strongly consistent estimates of the unknown number of states or components.     

海湾六国的可持续发展及其对中国的启示

海湾六国的经济和社会有着许多的共同特征。从整体来看经济结构单一，主要以石油为主，普遍存在本国国民失业率高的现象。石油收入是这些国家的主要财政来源，但“石油经济”从长期来看是不可持续的，最根本的原因在于石油资源的不可再生性。海湾六国政府实行了经济多元化政策以期早日摆脱对石油的依赖，向可持续方向发展。但可持续发展并非局限在经济方面，还包括了社会和生态环境的可持续发展，即关注环保和有效利用资源。本文以海湾六国为例简析了可持续发展面临的主要问题、实施战略及影响因素，这为中国的可持续发展提供了重要启示。     

中国文明与国家探源的思考

通过中西学术传统背景和当前研究现状的比较 ,文明与国家探源研究的传统与目标、文明与早期国家的科学定义、理论阐释和科学通则研究的意义的讨论 ,以及考古学研究的最新进展状况 ,可以得出 ,中国的文明与国家探源必须跳出历史编年学的窠臼 ,消除“国情不同”的成见。考古记录和文献是不同的研究材料 ,不应将考古发现印证史籍记载看作是研究的最大成果。我们要从科学观念上做根本的改变 ,从人类社会发展的整体框架来研究中国文明和国家起源的独特轨迹     

革命派与改良派关于"黄帝子孙"称谓的歧争

改良派认为“黄帝子孙”是包括满族人在内的全体中国人的代名词 ,革命派认为“黄帝子孙”是汉族人的同义语 ,这是双方民族观念和政治主张的差异造成的 ,其实质是要不要进行排满反清革命。改良派对“黄帝子孙”称谓的认识比革命派更符合历史实际 ,但革命派倡导的反清革命却比改良派主张的君主立宪更顺应时代需要 ,故而革命派在歧争中占据了上风。这场歧争促进了反清革命的胜利 ,同时也使“黄帝子孙”称谓发生短暂错位。辛亥革命后 ,革命派放弃了对“黄帝子孙”称谓的错误认识 ,使其重新成为中华民族全体成员的代称。     

宪法对国家结构形式的表述

各国宪法对国家结构的表述不同的原因是各国宪政发展的历史不同,以及法律文化、意识形态及其他因素有别。联邦制国家宪法往往以直接冠名、前言或首篇列出联邦成员名录来表述国家结构;单一制国家宪法则无直接冠名,也很少在宪法全文中用“单一制”这样明显的文字直接表述国家结构形式。无论是联邦制国家宪法还是单一制国家宪法,对国家结构表述的核心内容都是中央和地方权力的划分。