关系保持策略量表在中国人群中的初步试用

为了满足亲密关系的研究和婚姻家庭心理咨询的实际需要，对国外该领域中广泛采用的“关系保持策略量表”（RMSM）进行了翻译和修订，并使用一个包含246名被试的样本对该量表的信效度进行了检验。统计分析表明，修订后的中文版RMSM具有较高的信度和效度，符合心理测量学的基本要求。使用中文版RMSM，以818名已婚人士为研究对象，对中国人的关系保持策略特点进行了调查。结果表明：性别、文化程度、家庭收入、年龄、结婚年限、子女等因素都会影响中国人婚姻关系保持策略。     

Risk Analysis for U.S. Offshore Wind Farms: The Need for an Integrated Approach

Wind power is becoming an increasingly important part of the global energy portfolio, and there is growing interest in developing offshore wind farms in the United States to better utilize this resource. Wind farms have certain environmental benefits, notably near‐zero emissions of greenhouse gases, particulates, and other contaminants of concern. However, there are significant challenges ahead in achieving large‐scale integration of wind power in the United States, particularly offshore wind. Environmental impacts from wind farms are a concern, and these are subject to a number of on‐going studies focused on risks to the environment. However, once a wind farm is built, the farm itself will face a number of risks from a variety of hazards, and managing these risks is critical to the ultimate achievement of long‐term reductions in pollutant emissions from clean energy sources such as wind. No integrated framework currently exists for assessing risks to offshore wind farms in the United States, which poses a challenge for wind farm risk management. In this “Perspective”, we provide an overview of the risks faced by an offshore wind farm, argue that an integrated framework is needed, and give a preliminary starting point for such a framework to illustrate what it might look like. This is not a final framework; substantial work remains. Our intention here is to highlight the research need in this area in the hope of spurring additional research about the risks to wind farms to complement the substantial amount of on‐going research on the risks from wind farms.     

A Bayesian analysis of a change in the parameters of autoregressive time series

In this article, we consider a Bayesian analysis of a possible change in the parameters of autoregressive time series of known order p, AR(p). An unconditional Bayesian test based on highest posterior density (HPD) credible sets is determined. The test is useful to detect a change in any one of the parameters separately. Using the Gibbs sampler algorithm, we approximate the posterior densities of the change point and other parameters to calculate the p-values that define our test.     

论刑罚资源的有效配置

对刑罚意义的不同理解以及对刑罚目的的不同追求直接决定着刑事制裁方式的选择。刑罚的目的是通过加重犯罪所需要的成本来制止犯罪,从而得到最佳的刑罚效益。在刑罚资源有限的前提下,如何选择有效的刑事制裁方式,以最合理、最小量的刑罚成本投入,最大限度获取刑罚效益,始终是一个难题。从刑罚经济分析的角度,研究犯罪与刑罚的关系,有助于实现刑罚资源的有效配置,促进刑事司法活动成本减少、效益增大,进而更好地惩治犯罪与预防犯罪。     

Improving variance function estimation in semiparametric longitudinal data analysis

We propose an efficient and robust method for variance function estimation in semiparametric longitudinal data analysis. The method utilizes a local log‐linear approximation for the variance function and adopts a generalized estimating equation approach to account for within subject correlations. We show theoretically and empirically that our method outperforms estimators using working independence that ignores the correlations. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 39: 656–670; 2011. © 2011 Statistical Society of Canada     

Classical testing in functional linear models

We extend four tests common in classical regression – Wald, score, likelihood ratio and F tests – to functional linear regression, for testing the null hypothesis, that there is no association between a scalar response and a functional covariate. Using functional principal component analysis, we re-express the functional linear model as a standard linear model, where the effect of the functional covariate can be approximated by a finite linear combination of the functional principal component scores. In this setting, we consider application of the four traditional tests. The proposed testing procedures are investigated theoretically for densely observed functional covariates when the number of principal components diverges. Using the theoretical distribution of the tests under the alternative hypothesis, we develop a procedure for sample size calculation in the context of functional linear regression. The four tests are further compared numerically for both densely and sparsely observed noisy functional data in simulation experiments and using two real data applications.     

Modeling Correlated Discrete Uncertainties in Event Trees with Copulas

Modeling the dependence between uncertainties in decision and risk analyses is an important part of the problem structuring process. We focus on situations where correlated uncertainties are discrete, and extend the concept of the copula‐based approach for modeling correlated continuous uncertainties to the representation of correlated discrete uncertainties. This approach reduces the required number of probability assessments significantly compared to approaches requiring direct estimates of conditional probabilities. It also allows the use of multiple dependence measures, including product moment correlation, rank order correlation and tail dependence, and parametric families of copulas such as normal copulas, t‐copulas, and Archimedean copulas. This approach can be extended to model the dependence between discrete and continuous uncertainties in the same event tree.     

海洋钻井隔水管顶张力分析

隔水管系统足海洋钻井的主要设备之-本丈对描述隔水管运动的四阶非线性偏徽分方程和边界条件进行了简化，并应用有限差分法对隔水管的受力情况进行数值分析.作用在隔水管上的顶张力，使用四种海况进行研究，并编制了相应的计算程序.通过实例计葬，与美国应力工程服务奋司的计葬结果进行比较，结果完全-致.末文提供的动态分析方法及计葬程序具有方法简便、精确度高和机时省千优点，对设计和校核隔水管系统具有实用价值.     

为钻头选型的地层模糊聚类研究

本文用模栩聚类分析方法探讨燎合考虑地层多种岩性下的地层分爽.以17种不同地层为例，分析了其模栩相容拒阵的建立方法并给出其聚类圈.讨论了绿合考虑地层多种若性下的钻头选型。     

Ethical uneasiness and the need for open-ended reflexivity: the case of research into older people with a wish to die

This article focuses on research ethics in highly intimate research with possible impact on life and death. In order to stimulate an open-ended dialogue about research ethics, we reflect on four ethical challenges that came up during our research into older people with a wish to die. Drawing on our experiences, we discuss (1) the possibly confirming influence of our research on the death wish (moral experience of whether or not to disregard responsibility); (2) the suggested duty to intervene (moral experience of whether or not to compromise the person’s autonomy); (3) the researcher’s authority and power over the data (moral experience of threatening a person’s self-narrative) and (4) the dilemma of intimacy (moral experience of encountering the tragic). For guidance in addressing these challenges, we draw upon work on research ethics from phenomenological and care ethics scholars, as well as from those writing about relational ethics in health research. We suggest that being open about ethical uneasiness is important, because in most cases of a grey area, there are only open-ended answers needing an enquiring mind, rather than clear and fixed guidelines. Acknowledgement of ethical uneasiness and open-ended reflexivity are indispensable to constitute a morally good research practice.