代际研究中终生收入估算偏差问题探讨

在我国代际收入流动性问题研究中,微观数据分析常用父代40岁左右的单年收入替代其终生收入,由此导致代际收入弹性估计偏大问题。文章假定微观个体观测值服从对数正态分布并进行建模,对个体终生收入做出统计预测。模拟得到学历为硕士人群的工资年增长率是本科人群的1.06倍,收入达到峰值的时间则晚了约8年,对全部人群父代的终生收入用其40岁左右收入逼近的思路可依据父代教育水平进行再次细分。     

Improved Transferability of Data‐Driven Damage Models Through Sample Selection Bias Correction

Damage models for natural hazards are used for decision making on reducing and transferring risk. The damage estimates from these models depend on many variables and their complex sometimes nonlinear relationships with the damage. In recent years, data‐driven modeling techniques have been used to capture those relationships. The available data to build such models are often limited. Therefore, in practice it is usually necessary to transfer models to a different context. In this article, we show that this implies the samples used to build the model are often not fully representative for the situation where they need to be applied on, which leads to a “sample selection bias.” In this article, we enhance data‐driven damage models by applying methods, not previously applied to damage modeling, to correct for this bias before the machine learning (ML) models are trained. We demonstrate this with case studies on flooding in Europe, and typhoon wind damage in the Philippines. Two sample selection bias correction methods from the ML literature are applied and one of these methods is also adjusted to our problem. These three methods are combined with stochastic generation of synthetic damage data. We demonstrate that for both case studies, the sample selection bias correction techniques reduce model errors, especially for the mean bias error this reduction can be larger than 30%. The novel combination with stochastic data generation seems to enhance these techniques. This shows that sample selection bias correction methods are beneficial for damage model transfer.     

The effect of cognitive diversity on the illusion of control bias in strategic decisions: An experimental investigation

By integrating cognitive diversity into debiasing literature, this paper contributes towards opening the black box of executive judgment. Based on information processing theory we investigate the role of cognitive diversity in strategic decision making. We apply a vignette-based experimental research design to examine the effect of cognitive diversity in teams on decision maker's illusion of control. The results of these experiments provide evidence for a positive influence of high cognitive diversity for debiasing judgment while similarly indicating no such effect for groups with low cognitive diversity. These findings suggest that group composition aspects can play an important role for improving judgment in decision making teams and open promising new avenues for studying debiasing in behavioral strategy research.     

Fairness and commitment to change in M&As: The mediating role of organizational identification

This paper examines the determinants of employees' affective commitment to change in the context of M&As. Based on the group engagement model (Tyler & Blader, 2000, 2003), we predicted that organizational identification with the newly formed organization mediates the positive impact of employees’ overall justice judgments and perceived change favorableness on affective commitment to change. We tested our predictions using data collected during an international merger. After controlling for country effects, results support our hypotheses. Implications for research and practice alike are discussed.     

Paradigm lost: Reinvigorating the study of organizational culture

In spite of the importance of organizational culture, scholarly advances in our understanding of the construct appear to have stagnated. We review the state of culture research and argue that the ongoing academic debates about what culture is and how to study it have resulted in a lack of unity and precision in defining and measuring culture. This ambiguity has constrained progress in both developing a coherent theory of organizational culture and accreting replicable and valid findings. To make progress we argue that future research should focus on conceptualizing and assessing organizational culture as the norms that characterize a group or organization that if widely shared and strongly held, act as a social control system to shape members’ attitudes and behaviors. We further argue that to accomplish this, researchers need to recognize that norms can be parsed into three distinct dimensions: (1) the content or what is deemed important (e.g., teamwork, accountability, innovation), (2) the consensus or how widely shared norms are held across people, and (3) the intensity of feelings about the importance of the norm (e.g., are people willing to sanction others). From this perspective we suggest how future research might be able to clarify some of the current conflicts and confusion that characterize the current state of the field.     

Assessing goodness-of-fit of categorical regression models based on case-control data

Demonstrated equivalence between a categorical regression model based on case‐control data and an I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model leads to a new goodness‐of‐fit test. The proposed test statistic is an extension of an existing Kolmogorov–Smirnov‐type statistic and is the weighted average of the absolute differences between two estimated distribution functions in each response category. The paper establishes an optimal property for the maximum semiparametric likelihood estimator of the parameters in the I‐sample semiparametric selection bias model. It also presents a bootstrap procedure, some simulation results and an analysis of two real datasets.     

鄂西土家族端午节习俗及其特征

在农历五月初五已经成为国家法定端午节的大背景下,恩施土家族地区仍然保留着过三个端午节的习俗,即农历五月初五、十五和二十五,分别叫头端午、中端午和末端午.这一习俗既存在于文献记载中,也现存于土家人的生活中.节日动机逐渐从追忆历史、纪念先人转向亲人团聚和享受饮食游乐,充满了浓郁的少数民族节日文化气息.节俗特征明显,但随着时...     

民营上市公司集团治理与终极控制人侵占效应分析

本文以民营上市公司为样本,采用2002-2004年的面板数据,针对民营上市公司中普遍存在的集团治理现象,理论分析并实证检验了集团治理的各因素对终极控制人行为的综合影响.研究发现,在集团治理条件下,随着控制权和现金流权偏离程度的增加,终极控制人采取具有侵占效应的行为的激励越强.而上市公司的治理结构能够对这一影响起到调节作用,其中,股权结构中的内部股东集团比例增加会强化侵占效应的激励;董事会结构中外部董事比例的增加会抑制终极控制人的侵占效应行为.本文的经验证据表明,在对民营上市公司集团治理结构加强监管的同时,正确认识外部董事的作用、强化董事会的独立性并完善内部机制能够取到良好的治理效果.     

On making causal claims: A review and recommendations

Social scientists often estimate models from correlational data, where the independent variable has not been exogenously manipulated; they also make implicit or explicit causal claims based on these models. When can these claims be made? We answer this question by first discussing design and estimation conditions under which model estimates can be interpreted, using the randomized experiment as the gold standard. We show how endogeneity – which includes omitted variables, omitted selection, simultaneity, common-method variance, and measurement error – renders estimates causally uninterpretable. Second, we present methods that allow researchers to test causal claims in situations where randomization is not possible or when causal interpretation could be confounded; these methods include fixed-effects panel, sample selection, instrumental variable, regression discontinuity, and difference-in-differences models. Third, we take stock of the methodological rigor with which causal claims are being made in a social sciences discipline by reviewing a representative sample of 110 articles on leadership published in the previous 10 years in top-tier journals. Our key finding is that researchers fail to address at least 66% and up to 90% of design and estimation conditions that make causal claims invalid. We conclude by offering 10 suggestions on how to improve non-experimental research.     

阿拉伯-伊斯兰世界群体文化心理蠡测(上)

曾经的辉煌与当下的衰败、曾经的核心与目前的边缘化所造成的失落感,三大圣地、《古兰经》与先知穆罕默德的相继蒙羞和遭辱所带来的受辱感,历史的创伤记忆与现实的生存困窘共同积淀成了一种顽强的集体潜意识,形成阿拉伯—伊斯兰民众仇恨与暴力相交织的心理死结,外现为以暴易暴、铤而走险甚至不断丧失自我。因此,阿拉伯—伊斯兰世界应在不断抵抗西方霸权主义对中东诸多利益的制衡中,努力变革滞后于全球化主潮的落后现状。否则,将面临更为严重的民族和地区的倒退,危及世界和平与稳定。