财富禀赋与理性境界——关于理性行为动机的马斯洛与马歇尔之辩

自利动机假定和最大化分析范式是主流经济学的核心理论座架与基础逻辑构件。它反映了斯密、马歇尔置身的生产力低下、财富匮乏的前工业化时代人们追求物质生存需求满足的行为机理。马斯洛发现财富快速增长的工业化时代人们的行为动机与财富匮乏时代有着重大不同,也即随着收入增加和物质生存需求满足程度提高,经济行为人的行为动机会逐渐向自我实现动机递变。工业化国家近年来不断扩展的企业家慈善捐赠行动和企业社会责任行为,就是经济人行为动机由单一生存需求动机向多元复合高层动机转变的一个明证。主流经济学把贫困环境下以生存为基本诉求的经济行为人错置到摆脱了贫困和生存困扰、消费品堆积如山的当代,把一种与贫困时代合宜的经济学假定丝毫无改地带入富裕时代的经济学,是导致经济人假定失真的一个主要根由。现代经济学在承纳人的经济自利动机的同时,应该为人的自我实现、社会责任、利他等高层心理动机的涌现和张扬留出理论通路。     

Von Mises分布在陕西省保费收入中的应用

保费收入的季节波动对保险业的增长具有重要的影响。应用方向数据统计对2005~2009年陕西省保费收入进行了季节波动分析,通过假设检验及统计推断得出陕西省保费收入服从双峰Von Mises分布,具有明显的季节波动性。     

Bargaining without a Common Prior—An Immediate Agreement Theorem

In sequential bargaining models without outside options, each player's bargaining power is ultimately determined by which player will make an offer and when. This paper analyzes a sequential bargaining model in which players may hold different beliefs about which player will make an offer and when. Excessive optimism about making offers in the future can cause delays in agreement. The main result states that, despite this, if players will remain sufficiently optimistic for a sufficiently long future, then in equilibrium they will agree immediately. This result is also extended to other canonical models of optimism.     

Moran's I statistic-based nonparametric test with spatio-temporal observations

Moran's I statistic [Moran, (1950), ‘Notes on Continuous Stochastic Phenomena’, Biometrika, 37, 17–23] has been widely used to evaluate spatial autocorrelation. This paper is concerned with Moran's I-induced testing procedure in residual analysis. We begin with exploring the Moran's I statistic in both its original and extended forms analytically and numerically. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the statistic in general depends not only on the underlying correlation but also on certain heterogeneity in the individual observations. One should exercise caution when interpreting the outcome on correlation by the Moran's I-induced procedure. On the other hand, the effect on the Moran's I due to heterogeneity in the observations enables a regression model checking procedure with the residuals. This novel application of Moran's I is justified by simulation and illustrated by an analysis of wildfire records from Alberta, Canada.     

Is there no “I” in “Team”? Interindividual-intergroup discontinuity effect in a Cournot competition experiment

Even though firms consist of teams of individuals, industrial organization experiments are typically conducted under the unitary player assumption with individuals representing firms. Against this practice, there is evidence that individuals’ decisions differ from those made by teams, and also from individuals’ decisions which affect both oneself and others. This study examines the empirical scope of the unitary player assumption (alternatively the “interindividual-intergroup discontinuity effect”) in the context of a Cournot competition experiment. In the first, standard, experiment (216 participants), we find no evidence for the discontinuity effect. Output choices of both individuals and teams are around the Cournot outcome. In a second experiment (198 participants), we use a recommendation to shift participants’ initial disposition towards the (off-equilibrium) collusive output. This triggers the discontinuity effect; individuals choose lower outputs and collude more than teams. This effect is persistent in the second half of the experiment, and is not caused by team-member discussion or by seating team members together. We discuss the interpretations and implications of our results.     

环境保护法的人性假设——以生态文明建设为背景

人的问题是社会科学共同关注的问题,对"人"的不同观察视角和对人性的不同预设决定了不同学科的基本理论倾向。法律对于人性的假设包括对于人的本性的预先判定,也包括对人的行为目的的预设。环境法是因应生态危机而兴起的部门法,环境法的发展以生态文明为战略背景和最终目标。根据生态文明的要求和环境保护法的基本理念,将"生态人"视为环境保护法的基本人性假设是必然的。"生态人"假设对于环境法具有逻辑起点的意义,作为实践理性也可以对环境法规则进行价值判断、引导环境法制度设置和引导人们的行为。     

The proportional odds with partial proportionality constraints model for ordinal response variables

The proportional odds assumption in ordered logit models is a restrictive assumption that is often violated in practice. A violation of the assumption indicates that the effects of one or more independent variables significantly vary across cutpoint equations in the model. In order to relax this assumption for the cumulative odds model, researchers may use either a “partial” model that relaxes the assumption for a subset of variables or the “generalized” model that relaxes the assumption for every independent variable. In this paper, we propose a relatively new and under-utilized third alternative, the proportional odds with partial proportionality constraints (POPPC) model, which allows the effects of a subset of variables to vary across cutpoint equations by a common factor. We improve upon an earlier formulation of the POPPC model by offering an additional conceptual justification for the model and an estimation method that does not require the use of person-threshold data. We illustrate the POPPC model with two examples from the 2008 General Social Survey.     

德治模式下的中国传统法律制度批判

中国传统社会治理模式是建立在道德人假设上的一种德治模式,这种德治模式在法律制度的建构中由于理性缺失,主要表现为权力本位和对公民权利的漠视,在法律制度的运行中人情化和工具化现象严重,使法治停留在表面化、口号化层面。     

无统计信息假设下的多阶段报童决策

在不对需求做任何统计假设的情形下,该文用理论计算科学兴起的集成专家意见的弱集成算法研究多阶段报童决策。弱集成算法是一种指数加权平均集成方法,在一定的初始权重下,根据损失函数在线调整专家意见的权重。基于收益损失函数和固定订购量的专家意见,得到了与从累积收益角度研究相一致的决策方法;并扩展研究了带有回收价值的情形。理论上证明了决策方法的累积收益损失几乎不超过最优专家意见的累积收益损失。通过数值算例验证了决策方法的可行性和合理性,探讨了卖出价和成本价等因素对竞争性能的影响,说明了回收价值的引入大大提高了决策方法的竞争性能,具有重要的现实意义。     

Reshaping M&A research: Strategies and tactics for a new research agenda

I apply a cognitive perspective to understand how primary cognitive mechanisms—simplification, elaboration, and interaction—have influenced the way scholars, as individuals and as a community, have queried acquisitions so far. While cognitive mechanisms have played an important role in advancing our grasp of acquisitions, they have also favored the emergence of hidden, taken-for-granted assumptions, eventually resulting in reproducing the same lines of reasoning, applying the same stock of methodological and theoretical approaches, often with a marginal contribution to our understanding of the field. To remedy this state of affairs, I propose a framework that encompasses four strategies and a set of tactics to assist scholars in challenging hidden assumptions, playing with ideas, considering context in acquisitions, and rethinking theoretical frameworks. I contrast established perspectives with novel ones to build a research agenda.