神话资源转化必须警惕两种倾向——冯天瑜先生访谈录

冯天瑜先生认为:神话资源转化与其他传统的、古典的资源转化一样,具有文化延续的必然性;神话资源转化过程有一个诠释学问题,在诠释学范畴内讨论神话资源转化,必须警惕两种倾向,一是过度诠释,二是否定诠释的可能性;神话资源转化既要坚持资源的本真性,又要坚持资源在当代的可转化性,只有如此,神话资源转化方能产生积极的文化影响。     

From Birth to Death: A Social Monitoring Framework from New Zealand

The paper begins by outlining the development of social indicators work and social monitoring at the national level in New Zealand and comments on how this relates to the international movement. It describes the 'key' indicators/life stage approach developed by the New Zealand Planning Council in the early 1980s. This exercise continues from a university base and the fourth report in the series, entitled Tracking Social Change in New Zealand was published in early 1998. Examples are presented to show how the results can be used to highlight the policy implications of changing social trends.     

A general inversion theorem for cointegration

A generalization of the Granger and the Johansen Representation Theorems valid for any (possibly fractional) order of integration is presented. This Representation Theorem is based on inversion results that characterize the order of the pole and the coefficients of the Laurent series representation of the inverse of a matrix function around a singular point. Explicit expressions of the matrix coefficients of the (polynomial) cointegrating relations, of the Common Trends and of the Triangular representations are provided, either starting from the Moving Average or the Auto Regressive form. This contribution unifies different approaches in the literature and extends them to an arbitrary order of integration. The role of deterministic terms is discussed in detail.     

《史地学报》及其群体与《学衡》之关系的探讨

从吴宓到鲁迅,再到后来的研究者,都将<史地学报>和<学衡>紧密地联系在一起.将前者的核心人物、诸位同人和刊物本身三个层面与后者进行比较分析,不仅可以揭示1920年代在南京乃至全国学界甚有影响的两份刊物之间的密切关系与异同所在,同时也可展现当时相关学术群体的学术风貌.     

Divorce Chinese Style

This study investigated divorce during China's social and economic transformation period from 1970 to 2012. Specifically, the study examined the trend development of divorce and demonstrated how marriage formation type and individual socioeconomic characteristics were associated with the likelihood of divorce across time. Event‐history analysis was applied to longitudinal data from the China Family Panel Studies (2010–2012 waves). The results showed a threefold increase in divorce from the pre‐1990s to the 1990s. Surprisingly, the trend shifted to a plateau toward the 2000s. When cohabitation was in its rapidly diffusing stage in the 1990s, individuals who cohabited prior to marriage had a substantially higher likelihood of divorce. As cohabitation became increasingly common in the 2000s, its effect on divorce weakened. The role of socioeconomic characteristics in divorce also varied across time. This study enriches the knowledge of family dynamics in contemporary Chinese society.     

Parental age and offspring mortality: Negative effects of reproductive ageing may be counterbalanced by secular increases in longevity

As parental ages at birth continue to rise, concerns about the effects of fertility postponement on offspring are increasing. Due to reproductive ageing, advanced parental ages have been associated with negative health outcomes for offspring, including decreased longevity. The literature, however, has neglected to examine the potential benefits of being born at a later date. Secular declines in mortality mean that later birth cohorts are living longer. We analyse mortality over ages 30–74 among 1.9 million Swedish men and women born 1938–60, and use a sibling comparison design that accounts for all time-invariant factors shared by the siblings. When incorporating cohort improvements in mortality, we find that those born to older mothers do not suffer any significant mortality disadvantage, and that those born to older fathers have lower mortality. These findings are likely to be explained by secular declines in mortality counterbalancing the negative effects of reproductive ageing.     

改琦和海内外孤本《先贤谱图》考

过去对清代画家改琦的介绍都很零散,且对其作品也没有系统的罗列。本文根据各种历史资料,首次厘清了改琦的家世和祖籍,其次陈述了对海内孤本《先贤谱图》的鉴定和艺术价值,再次分析了文字狱海富润事件对改琦创作《先贤谱图》和其他艺术作品的深刻影响,然后概括介绍了《先贤谱图》的主要内容;文章最后对《先贤谱图》的原创力、对改琦艺术作品和艺术思想,及其文化综合主义世界观作了初步的探讨。     

The Decoupling of Marriage and Parenthood? Trends in the Timing of Marital First Births, 1945–2002

Family formation changed dramatically over the 20th century in the United States. The impact of these changes on childbearing has primarily been studied in terms of nonmarital fertility. However, changes in family formation behavior also have implications for fertility within marriage. The authors used data from 10 fertility surveys to describe changes in the timing of marital childbearing from the 1940s through the 21st century for non‐Hispanic White and non‐Hispanic Black women. Based on harmonized data from the Integrated Fertility Survey Series, the results suggest increasing divergence in fertility timing for White women. A growing proportion of marriages begin with a premarital conception; at the same time, an increasing proportion of White women are postponing fertility within marriage. For Black women, marital fertility is increasingly postponed beyond the early years of marriage. Evaluating the sequencing of marriage and parenthood over time is critical to understanding the changing meaning of marriage.     

试论马克思恩格斯辩证唯物主义与历史唯物主义思想对当代的价值与启示

在世界陷入新一轮金融危机的情况下,人们重新发现一个多世纪前的马克思主义以其真理性的理论准确地预测并指导着人们的实践,自苏东剧变后受到冷遇的马克思主义再次被世人正视。文章通过分析马克思恩格斯辩证唯物主义与历史唯物主义思想,对当今国内外重大理论和现实问题进行分析,并提出这些思想给我们的启示。     

中国城镇化:历史道路、制度根源与国际经验

中国城镇化发展的每一个历史阶段,都对应了中国经济社会发展中需要解决的核心问题。当前中国城镇化发展面临的瓶颈,其形成有深刻的社会历史制度根源。要从全球及中国发展大战略的角度,历史性地考察中国城镇化道路的历史演变及其逻辑,探寻中国城镇化发展瓶颈的社会历史制度根源,并借鉴国际经验,推动新型城镇化的健康发展。为此,需要在战略认知方面,突破城镇化发展传统思维的束缚,形成创新性的新型城镇化发展战略的理念;在制度建构方面,形成推动和保障城镇化发展的有针对性的战略框架;在动员多元主体力量与资源方面,要实行多元主体间的协调合作,打造城镇化发展的组织化支持系统。