长江经济带生态效率时空格局演化及影响因素研究

文章基于108个城市2004-2014年市级面板数据测度了长江经济带城市生态效率的时空演变格局,综合而言,长江经济带生态效率水平呈现出波动上升态势,长江流域城市生态效率分化特征明显,湖南、湖北和四川等长江上游城市生态效率较高,长江上、中、下游地区城市生态效率依次递减.对生态效率的影响因素研究表明,科技创新显著地提高了长江经济带的生态效率,经济快速增长降低了城市生态效率,意味着转变经济增长方式、加快科技创新是提高城市生态效率的有效途径.研究还发现,产业结构偏离度有利于提高城市生态效率,而产业升级抑制了城市生态效率的增长,意味着产业升级并不是提高城市生态效率的捷径.     

Pharmacovigilance in Clinical Trials: Current Practice and Challenges

In view of the MENA increasing participation in multinational trials and the increasing number of national/regional trials, this article explores potential areas of pharmacovigilance, requiring reform and provides recommendations for building a robust safety reporting system. Regulatory silence on expedited reporting requirements creates confusion for local sites that are part of multinational trials. Not allowing waiver for serious adverse events that are protocol specified or are study endpoints, along with lack of emphasis on causality as reporting criteria, adds substantial burden of uninformative cases for regulatory review. Despite global focus on Development Safety Update Report, local regulators are not yet insistent on real-time update of a drug’s cumulative safety profile. Issues like reporting requirements for generic trials, pregnancy reporting and lenient timeline for death/life-threatening events need attention. Finally, the need to formulate an all-encompassing local pharmacovigilance guideline, in sync with global practice cannot be overemphasized.     

套管的失效分析

通过收集石油套管现场失效数据资料,以套管失效为顶事件建立了石油套管的故障树,该故障树共考虑了47个不同的基本事件。通过对套管故障树的分析,得到了套管失效故障树的一阶最小割集27个,二阶最小割集29个,四阶最小割集1个,确立了套管的主要失效形式为潜在损坏、套管挤毁、套管断裂及严重腐蚀,并提出了提高套管可靠性的措施。     

城市经济圈发展助推区域一体化——兼论南沙新区与港澳的经济合作

根据区域一体化理论,结合新时期广东省在推进珠三角一体化中,建立和发展广佛肇、深莞惠和珠中江三个经济圈的实践,分析了区域经济一体化对区域整体发展的新意义、地位和作用,讨论了珠江三角洲通过建设和发展若干个以经济发展为核心的现代都市圈,对于新时期加强与港澳经济合作,促进区域经济一体化的更好发展颇具深远的意义和作用。     

“天神赐佑”与“尽人之力”：清世宗“天人感应”理念下的钱塘江海塘工程

雍正初年，清世宗在钱塘江海塘修筑中提出了“一劳永逸”的目标，并且为实现治水目的，在意识形态层面将海塘工程纳人到了“天人感应”理念的范畴。但是，“天神赐佑”、“非人力所能”与“一劳永逸”目标之间存在着明显的逻辑矛盾，从而对塘工修筑产生了深刻影响。意识形态与水利工程的交融，因此成为雍正朝治水政治的一大特点。     

Understanding Community Resilience from a PRA Perspective Using Binary Decision Diagrams

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is a useful tool to assess complex interconnected systems. This article leverages the capabilities of PRA tools developed for industrial and nuclear risk analysis in community resilience evaluations by modeling the food security of a community in terms of its built environment as an integrated system. To this end, we model the performance of Gilroy, CA, a moderate‐size town, with regard to disruptions in its food supply caused by a severe earthquake. The food retailers of Gilroy, along with the electrical power network, water network elements, and bridges are considered as components of a system. Fault and event trees are constructed to model the requirements for continuous food supply to community residents and are analyzed efficiently using binary decision diagrams (BDDs). The study also identifies shortcomings in approximate classical system analysis methods in assessing community resilience. Importance factors are utilized to rank the importance of various factors to the overall risk of food insecurity. Finally, the study considers the impact of various sources of uncertainties in the hazard modeling and performance of infrastructure on food security measures. The methodology can be applicable for any existing critical infrastructure system and has potential extensions to other hazards.     

元前文献图籍所载黄河河源

有关黄河河源的概念，古代各种史学、地理、以及宗教文献都有相关记载。早期文献中提出的重源潜流的概念，也为塑造河源空间概念留下了发挥余地。及至唐朝，各种类书、笔记、野史关于位于境外的河源的著述沿用了上述文献中已有的地理知识，并融入了佛教世界观的空间概念以及唐代实地考察的纪录，逐渐构成了河源这一多元化的空间想象。本文探讨了不同知识框架对唐代河源记载的影响，以及在几幅现存宋代地图上所反映出的相关影响。这类文献资料有助于我们理解中古地理知识的深化与演变，以及后代地图上展示河源的更丰富的地图表现形式。     

旅游审美视阈下的江南水乡与岭南水乡之比较

江南水乡与岭南水乡有着"小桥流水人家"的共同点,但两水乡景观的美学意蕴却呈现相异的风格,前者体现出诗意的审美理想,后者却表现为寻常人家的随意、舒适;两个水乡景致在审美动因与审美张力上也各有千秋,引发旅游者不同的审美体验。     

Evaluation of Inhaled Versus Deposited Dose Using the Exponential Dose‐Response Model for Inhalational Anthrax in Nonhuman Primate,Rabbit, and Guinea Pig

The application of the exponential model is extended by the inclusion of new nonhuman primate (NHP), rabbit, and guinea pig dose‐lethality data for inhalation anthrax. Because deposition is a critical step in the initiation of inhalation anthrax, inhaled doses may not provide the most accurate cross‐species comparison. For this reason, species‐specific deposition factors were derived to translate inhaled dose to deposited dose. Four NHP, three rabbit, and two guinea pig data sets were utilized. Results from species‐specific pooling analysis suggested all four NHP data sets could be pooled into a single NHP data set, which was also true for the rabbit and guinea pig data sets. The three species‐specific pooled data sets could not be combined into a single generic mammalian data set. For inhaled dose, NHPs were the most sensitive (relative lowest LD₅₀) species and rabbits the least. Improved inhaled LD₅₀s proposed for use in risk assessment are 50,600, 102,600, and 70,800 inhaled spores for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. Lung deposition factors were estimated for each species using published deposition data from Bacillus spore exposures, particle deposition studies, and computer modeling. Deposition was estimated at 22%, 9%, and 30% of the inhaled dose for NHP, rabbit, and guinea pig, respectively. When the inhaled dose was adjusted to reflect deposited dose, the rabbit animal model appears the most sensitive with the guinea pig the least sensitive species.     

Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation designs for simultaneously estimating the optimal and maximum safe dose based on safety and efficacy

The main purpose of dose‐escalation trials is to identify the dose(s) that is/are safe and efficacious for further investigations in later studies. In this paper, we introduce dose‐escalation designs that incorporate both the dose‐limiting events and dose‐limiting toxicities (DLTs) and indicative responses of efficacy into the procedure. A flexible nonparametric model is used for modelling the continuous efficacy responses while a logistic model is used for the binary DLTs. Escalation decisions are based on the combination of the probabilities of DLTs and expected efficacy through a gain function. On the basis of this setup, we then introduce 2 types of Bayesian adaptive dose‐escalation strategies. The first type of procedures, called “single objective,” aims to identify and recommend a single dose, either the maximum tolerated dose, the highest dose that is considered as safe, or the optimal dose, a safe dose that gives optimum benefit risk. The second type, called “dual objective,” aims to jointly estimate both the maximum tolerated dose and the optimal dose accurately. The recommended doses obtained under these dose‐escalation procedures provide information about the safety and efficacy profile of the novel drug to facilitate later studies. We evaluate different strategies via simulations based on an example constructed from a real trial on patients with type 2 diabetes, and the use of stopping rules is assessed. We find that the nonparametric model estimates the efficacy responses well for different underlying true shapes. The dual‐objective designs give better results in terms of identifying the 2 real target doses compared to the single‐objective designs.