基于收入构成的农民收入的地区差距及其演变

为了探索农民收入地区差距的变动趋势,本文选取1995-2009年的省级农民人均纯收入数据,利用基尼系数从收入来源角度探究农村地区差距的构成及变动,找出最主要的因素。研究结果表明,工资性收入是构成地区差距的主要因素,家庭经营收入始终起着差距促减作用。农村地区收入差距的拉大主要归因于结构效应。     

邓小平收入分配理论在微观企业的实现机制

邓小平收入分配理论涉及收入分配要素、收入分配原则、收入分配目标及实现路径等问题。邓小平收入分配理论是我们收入分配实践的重要理论依据。企业是国民经济的基本单位。通过对邓小平收入分配理论的简单介绍,从三个方面分析了邓小平收入分配理论在微观企业的实现机制,以期对企业的收入分配机制设计有所裨益。     

The Higher Education White Paper: The Good,the Bad,the Unspeakable – and the Next White Paper1

This article argues that reforms of higher education finance for undergraduates in England introduced by the Blair government in 2006 provided a progressive strategy for achieving the central objectives of higher education of quality (better), access (wider) and size (larger). Reforms in 2012 are a not a strategy but a collection of ad hoc arrangements. They include the good (a higher fees cap, a higher interest rate on student loans, better information and improved support for part‐time study), the bad (abolishing most taxpayer support for teaching in the arts and humanities and the social sciences, and raising excessively the threshold at which loan repayments start) and the unspeakable (abolishing Education Maintenance Allowances and AimHigher). The reforms are fiscally costly and hence perpetuate the central problem of capped student numbers, and will not stand the test of time. The concluding section outlines the next White Paper.     

Intergenerational income mobility and inequality in South Korea

Using data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS), recent trends in intergenerational income mobility were explored, examining the relationship between income mobility and income inequality in South Korea. The study found that the intergenerational elasticity of income is about 0.2 and there is no clear‐cut trend in intergenerational income mobility. In addition, this study showed that there is no systematic relation between rising income inequality and intergenerational income mobility in contemporary Korea. Overall, the results indicate that intergenerational income mobility is irresponsive to the income inequality the respondents experienced growing up. It is assumed that education and welfare transfer programs might offset the consequences of income inequality by leading to upward mobility for children from low‐income households.     

The Changing Transmission of Uncertainty Shocks in the U.S.

This article investigates if the impact of uncertainty shocks on the U.S. economy has changed over time. To this end, we develop an extended factor augmented vector autoregression (VAR) model that simultaneously allows the estimation of a measure of uncertainty and its time-varying impact on a range of variables. We find that the impact of uncertainty shocks on real activity and financial variables has declined systematically over time. In contrast, the response of inflation and the short-term interest rate to this shock has remained fairly stable. Simulations from a nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model suggest that these empirical results are consistent with an increase in the monetary authorities’ antiinflation stance and a “flattening” of the Phillips curve. Supplementary materials for this article are available online.     

中国杠杆率合理波动区间测度

针对当前去杠杆中亟需解决的阀值测度问题,通过搜集我国工业各个行业的相关数据,尝试测算其合理的波动区间。一方面,基于国民收入循环流,以货币流量理论和存款准备率上限为基础,对我国工业各行业杠杆率的下限进行测算;另一方面,根据企业利润的不确定性,以企业收益流能够覆盖成本流为基准,以银行信贷风险有效控制为目标,测算了工业各行业杠杆率的上限。得出三个结论：第一,我国目前以工业企业为代表的微观杠杆率仍然在相对合理的范围内;第二,各个行业的波动区间有所不同;第三,去杠杆政策制定应该根据不同行业,不能一刀切。     

各级教育投入、劳动力转移与城乡居民收入差距

本文从劳动力转移视角出发研究各级教育投入对城乡收入差距影响的微观机制,并探讨新常态下,如何进一步提高教育经费资源的配置效率。文章通过构建含二元经济结构特征的一般均衡模型,利用1995-2014年省级数据与动态空间面板模型对各级生均教育经费投入、劳动力转移与城乡收入差距的作用机制进行理论分析和实证检验。结果显示：一方面,教育投入是缓解我国城乡收入差距,实现城乡帕累托改进的有效手段,其对城乡收入差距的影响同时具有直接效应与间接效应。另一方面,各级教育投入效果不一,相比而言,义务教育尤其是初中阶段教育作用更加显著。最后,在我国宏观经济减速调整的背景下,加大教育经费投入不仅可在短期弥补私人投资减少平滑经济增长,还可促进人力资本积累提高经济潜在增速。教育投入再分配带来的劳动力转移既减少了城乡收入差距也有利于缓解就业结构转型滞后的矛盾,是实现兼具公平的包容性增长目标的重要保障。     

机会不平等的衡量：参数测度法的应用与改进

本文在考虑不可测环境和努力变量的影响,以及处理环境和努力变量相关性的基础上,改进机会不平等的参数测度法,并运用这一方法对中国居民收入分配的机会不平等程度进行数量测度。结果显示：样本期间,机会不平等占收入不平等的比例平均达到29%左右;分解结果显示,可测环境变量导致的机会不平等占收入不平等的比重维持在27%左右,不可测环境变量对收入不平等的贡献平均而言只有2%左右。此外,家庭教育背景差异、区域差距、城乡差距和性别歧视构成了现阶段中国居民机会不平等的主要来源。本文认为,为降低中国居民收入的机会不平等程度,政府应对因外部环境不利而陷入贫困的居民进行救济和补偿,为弱势群体依靠自己的努力取得成功创造条件和提供平台。     

The impact of social heterogeneity and commodity price shocks on civil conflicts

Do exogenous economic shocks promote civil conflicts directly? Do they affect all the societies alike? The current approach presents a large sample panel data evidence not only on the effect of commodity export price shocks on conflict incidence, rather than onsets, but also on the joint impact of both ethnic and religious polarization and fractionalization on political instability. In this regard, we find out that in ethnically polarized societies, the commodity export price shocks increase violence. Nonetheless, in ethnically and religiously fractionalized societies (as well as religiously polarized), the effect of commodity export price shocks on civil conflicts depends on the type of income shocks and category of commodity. These findings contribute to the existing literature by illuminating the compound effect of both income shocks and social diversity on intrastate conflicts.     

Effectiveness of Social Welfare Programmes in East Asia: A Case Study of Taiwan

Using the 2008 Family Income and Expenditure Survey, this study examined the effectiveness of social welfare programmes in Taiwan. The empirical evidence shows that most types of social welfare spending were limited in 2008. However, the social welfare programmes that were in place substantially reduced income inequality in Taiwan. Using the Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) poverty threshold, the results reveal that 14 per cent of the sample's families were poor in terms of market income, but this figure decreased to 7 per cent after government intervention. Income inequality in Taiwan was similar to that of other East Asian countries such as Japan and South Korea, but Taiwan spent much less money on social welfare programmes than OECD countries, and therefore Taiwan's reduction of poverty was much lower as well.