我国35个大中城市房价-持久收入比研究

房价收入比是反映居民购房可支付能力的重要指标。为了更真实准确反映我国居民长期承受的购房负担,本文基于持久收入假说,利用我国35个大中城市数据,建立状态空间模型,估计出持久收入意义下的房价收入比,通过情景分析确定其合理上限,并分析主要特征。研究表明：①我国房价-持久收入比的合理上限为7.6,2002-2013年35个大中城市的房价-持久收入比均值是9.2,其中28个城市已超过该上限,比值最高的北京已达到14.9;②城市越发达,则房价-持久收入比越高,居民需要承受的购房压力越大,且在时间趋势上,一线与二三线城市间的差距呈现扩大趋势;③在地理分布上,我国东部、中部、东北地区、西部大中城市的房价-持久收入比呈现从高到低的排列顺序;④相比于传统方法中根据可支配收入测算的房价收入比,房价-持久收入比与其约有10%的差异。当前我国政府应采取有效措施继续限制房价,减轻居民购房负担。     

教育改善贫困效应的地区异质性研究

教育对于增加收入、改善贫困无疑是一个重要的途径。在目前多维贫困越来越受到重视的情况下,本文在收入贫困和多维贫困两种贫困识别标准下,分析了教育改善贫困的效应在地区之间的异质性,考察了该效应是否受地区经济发展的影响。根据分层LOGIT模型的估计,本文认为地区经济发展水平是发挥教育改善收入贫困效应的重要舞台,对于多维贫困的改善效应则不明显。本文得到的一个重要扶贫政策建议是要发挥教育改善贫困的效应,必须注重精准扶贫与发展地区经济相结合;但仅仅发展经济,不一定能保证教育对多维贫困的改善效应,减轻多维贫困需要更加重视公共产品供给和民生保证。     

收入风险、金融教育与家庭金融市场参与

运用中国城市居民消费金融调查数据,基于因果推断的分析框架,采用倾向分值匹配法研究了收入风险、金融教育对家庭金融市场参与的影响。研究发现,收入越稳定,家庭开展金融教育的概率越高;金融教育显著提高了家庭的金融市场参与;按收入风险将样本分组后,上述结论依然稳健,且金融教育对不同家庭金融市场参与的影响具有非对称性。在对家庭收入稳定性分类的基础上,有针对性地增加金融教育的供给,提升家庭整体的金融教育水平,有利于提高家庭金融市场参与度,优化家庭金融资产配置,进而改善家庭金融福利。     

Supplemental Security Income Among Older Immigrants From Central and South America: The Impact of Welfare Reform

This article explores the impact of federal welfare policy changes on older immigrants born in Central and South America. Using data from the 1990 and 2000 U.S. Census 5% Public-Use Microdata Samples, the study examines (1) the change in Supplemental Security Income (SSI) uptake rate after welfare reform for noncitizens from Latin America, naturalized Latin Americans, and U.S.-born Hispanics and (2) how much of the change can be attributed to a change in behavior rather than to a change in eligibility rates. Findings show that the decline in SSI receipt after welfare reform was greater for Latin American noncitizens compared to naturalized citizens and Hispanic U.S.-born citizens. Decomposition analyses show that among eligible elderly noncitizens, the decline in recipiency rate was due mostly to a change in behavior rather than a change in eligibility. This pattern is not found for U.S.-born and naturalized citizens, where changes were mostly due to a decline in the proportion of persons eligible for SSI. This suggests that as a result of legislative changes, older immigrants may not be applying for benefits for which they may be legally entitled. Policy implications are discussed.     

城镇化过程中北京市城乡居民收入差距研究

城乡居民收入差距是社会差别的重要体现,反映着一个国家或地区经济社会发展的水平和状况。借鉴国内外关于城乡居民收入差距研究的方法,对1978—2011年30多年来北京城乡居民收入差距的演变趋势进行分析发现,20世纪90年代市场化改革以来,北京市城乡居民收入变动表现出了比较明显的特征,在经济增长、收入分配政策调整和城市化进程中,北京市城乡居民收入实现了不同程度的增长,但是城乡居民收入增长与人均GDP增长和社会劳动生产率提高并不同步,收入差距总体上呈现出扩大的趋势。但是,近年来城乡居民收入差距扩大的态势有所改变。与城市居民相比,北京市农村居民的收入与城镇居民还存在较大差距。     

1988—2010年间珠江三角洲农民工就业结构的变化分析

本文利用四次珠江三角洲农民工调查数据,主要分析了1988年至2010年间,珠三角农民工人口结构与就业特征的变化.发现女性农民工和未使用亲友网络找工的农民工比例逐年增加,普工从业者和在私营企业工作的农民工仍占多数,但比例逐年下降,而在1000人以上规模企业工作的农民工数量逐年增加.性别和工种之间存在工资差异,总体上,男性工资一直略高于女性,且差距有扩大的趋势,历年管理人员工资增幅波动较大,其月均工资水平高于技术工人和普工.     

Spousal Income and Sick Leave: What do Twins Tell us About Causality?

Theoretical arguments suggest that a higher socioeconomic status can improve health and as a consequence reduce the need for sick leave. The purpose of this study is to empirically investigate causal effects between spousal income and absence from the workplace due to sickness. To control for unobserved heterogeneity a Swedish sample of female twins and a semiparametric censored fixed-effects model was used. Results for dizygotic (fraternal) twins indicated that male spousal income, i.e., a non-shared environmental influence, reduced the share of income that was government-paid sickness benefits. Data on monozygotic twins, who have identical genes, provide a more complete control for unobserved heterogeneity. No causal effect was found in this case.

Constrained Efficiency in the Neoclassical Growth Model With Uninsurable Idiosyncratic Shocks

We investigate the welfare properties of the one‐sector neoclassical growth model with uninsurable idiosyncratic shocks. We focus on the notion of constrained efficiency used in the general equilibrium literature. Our characterization of constrained efficiency uses the first‐order condition of a constrained planner's problem. This condition highlights the margins of relevance for whether capital is too high or too low: the factor composition of income of the (consumption‐)poor. Using three calibrations commonly considered in the literature, we illustrate that there can be either over‐ or underaccumulation of capital in steady state and that the constrained optimum may or may not be consistent with a nondegenerate long‐run distribution of wealth. For the calibration that roughly matches the income and wealth distribution, the constrained inefficiency of the market outcome is rather striking: it has much too low a steady‐state capital stock.     

Remittances and the income distribution in Tonga

Receipt of remittances from migrants decreased the inequality of income in Tonga. Policies that attempt to affect migration or remittance flows, such as policies to improve the administration and collection of taxes, should take into account any undesirable effects on the distribution of income.