论WTO协定体制对国际投资法的发展

WTO协定蕴含着大量的国际投资规范 ,它不仅丰富和发展了国际投资多边法制的内涵 ,使国际投资法的自由化、强制化更加明显 ,推动了国际投资法的调整机制日趋多边化 ,而且对国际投资双边法制和各国国内立法产生了深远的影响。     

论“黄祸论”的形成根源及影响

19世纪末20世纪初,“黄祸论”在西方社会喧嚣一时。它的兴起,实际上有着深刻的历史的、文化的和社会现实的根源。它一方面反映了西方一些反华分子根深蒂固的种族、文化自大狂心理,另一方面也表现了西方列强为宰割中国、攫取一己私利而相互挑拨离间的丑恶嘴脸。这一谬论,严重玷污了中国的国际形象,毒化了中国的国际环境,影响极其恶劣。     

传统行政文化对服务型政府理念塑造的影响

为真正树立公民本位、法治、积极参与的服务行政理念,促进一个廉洁高效的服务型政府的出现,本文运用规范研究方法和历史研究方法,深入地挖掘了传统行政文化的特性,并就其对服务行政理念塑造正反两方面的影响进行了探讨。在服务型政府理念塑造中既要借鉴传统行政文化的现代性资源,更要摒弃其不良影响,真正塑造出适应现代社会发展的服务行政理念,促进服务型政府的建设。     

论抗战前期国民党政府的对日策略

抗战前期国民党政府对日只应战,不宣战的策略是有其复杂的历史因素的。客观上是由中日实力对比悬殊造成的,主观上则是由于蒋介石集团的″攘外必先安内″策略及其争取西方外援的需要而产生的。这一策略奠定了抗战前期国民党政府对日方针的思想基础,从而对中国前期的抗战带来了巨大的影响。     

Asymptotic Properties and Variance Estimators of the M-quantile Regression Coefficients Estimators

M-quantile regression is defined as a “quantile-like” generalization of robust regression based on influence functions. This article outlines asymptotic properties for the M-quantile regression coefficients estimators in the case of i.i.d. data with stochastic regressors, paying attention to adjustments due to the first-step scale estimation. A variance estimator of the M-quantile regression coefficients based on the sandwich approach is proposed. Empirical results show that this estimator appears to perform well under different simulated scenarios. The sandwich estimator is applied in the small area estimation context for the estimation of the mean squared error of an estimator for the small area means. The results obtained improve previous findings, especially in the case of heteroskedastic data.     

Multi-factor prediction of water flooding efficiency based on a time-varying system

ABSTRACT

The neural network prediction method gets good historical matching between prediction indices and influence factor indices, while the differential simulation prediction method can reflect the changing trend of prediction indices; considering these new traits, a new multi-factor prediction method is proposed to organically combine these two prediction methods. At first, the input–output relation between water flooding efficiency in ultra-high water cut stage and their influence factors is viewed as a time varying system, then the BP neural network is introduced in parameter identification of differential simulation to obtain a new multi-factor prediction method of functional simulation based on the time varying system. This new prediction model has got good self-adaptability since its parameters change by time. Moreover, it has better results in the mid-long-term water flooding efficiency prediction because the non convergence problem appeared in the coupling process can be overcome in the training process of the neural network by variable learning rates. In the end, practical output prediction cases in two different oilfield blocks in China are given. The computational results show that the prediction results obtained using the new multi-factor prediction method are in good agreement with the reality, even much better than the results obtained by other prediction methods.     

Robust Estimators for the Parameters of Multivariate Lognormal Distribution

Abstract

In this paper, we introduce a class of location and scale estimators for the p-variate lognormal distribution. These estimators are obtained by applying a log transform to the data, computing robust Fisher consistent estimators for the obtained Gaussian data and transforming those estimators for the lognormal using the relationship between the parameters of both distributions. We prove some of the properties of these estimators, such as Fisher consistency, robustness and asymptotic normality.     

A Comparison of Multiple Outlier Detection Methods for Regression Data

The problem of outliers in statistical data has attracted many researchers for a long time. Consequently, numerous outlier detection methods have been proposed in the statistical literature. However, no consensus has emerged as to which method is uniformly better than the others or which one is recommended for use in practical situations. In this article, we perform an extensive comparative Monte Carlo simulation study to assess the performance of the multiple outlier detection methods that are either recently proposed or frequently cited in the outlier detection literature. Our simulation experiments include a wide variety of realistic and challenging regression scenarios. We give recommendations on which method is superior to others under what conditions.     

教师核心经验意识对幼儿学习活动的影响——以前阅读核心经验对幼儿阅读区活动的影响为例

在幼儿发展历程中核心经验是必须获得的。核心经验在特定学科领域至关重要,它将用于理解和掌握该学科领域的知识和技能。通过“比较-讨论-运用”的方式来有效的建构教师的核心经验意识和前阅读核心经验知识,这为幼儿的阅读区活动带来了深刻变化：教师在幼儿语言区阅读目标的制定更具体明确;教师在语言区的阅读环境创设和阅读材料投放更科学有效;教师在幼儿阅读活动的观察中可以抓住关键点;教师对幼儿阅读活动的指导会更有效。教师的核心经验意识的建立有利于提高教师的专业能力,促进幼儿有效发展。     

温州城市居民幸福指数现状调查与研究

本文以温州城市居民幸福指数现状实地调研成果为出发点,揭示温州城市居民对社会保障、公共医疗卫生、公共教育、环境、安全等非经济因素的满意状况,深入探讨不同人口特征与"幸福指数"的关联性等问题,并提出了若干提升温州城市居民幸福指数的合理策略.