Investigating spatial variations in access to childcare provision using network‐based Geographic Information System models

A “flagship” policy outlined in the current Welsh Government's 2016 Programme for Government aims to provide 30 hours of free early education and childcare per week to the working parents of three‐ and four‐year‐olds. However, in common with many other countries, there is currently a lack of detail regarding existing levels of childcare provision that can act as a benchmark with which to examine the impacts of this policy. This article addresses an urgent need to understand current levels of provision at detailed geographical scales so as to provide an accurate picture of early childhood education and care across Wales. By drawing on Geographic Information System network models we compare the spatial distribution of providers with that of potential demand arising from those population groups targeted in the childcare offer. These provide a simple to understand supply‐to‐demand ratio that overcome the limitations of ratios derived for arbitrary administrative boundaries. The types of map‐based outputs that emanate from such an approach are demonstrated to provide more insights into spatial patterns of accessibility to current levels of childcare provision. These have guided the choice of pilot studies that will inform the roll out of the full childcare offer by the Welsh Government in 2020.     

Urgency and engagement: Empirical evidence from a large-scale intervention on energy use awareness

We study how to foster engagement in the energy sector, where signals about consumption are opaque and infrequent. We evaluate an energy company's large-scale communication campaign for promoting natural gas self-reading. Self-readings allow utilities to bill customers on the basis of real - as opposed to estimated - consumption. Exploiting variation in campaign messages, we test the impact of imposing a sense of urgency on customers through a deadline for submitting a meter reading. We find that messages that induce a sense of urgency are twice as effective than generic messages in encouraging self-readings, consistent with recent research on the urgency effect. The increased sense of urgency moves to action customers with both high and low levels of baseline engagement; the effect is stronger on the former.     

Random search algorithm for optimal mixture experimental design

It is well known that it is difficult to obtain an accurate optimal design for a mixture experimental design with complex constraints. In this article, we construct a random search algorithm which can be used to find the optimal design for mixture model with complex constraints. First, we generate an initial set by the Monte-Carlo method, and then run the random search algorithm to get the optimal set of points. After that, we explain the effectiveness of this method by using two examples.     

The effects of official and unofficial information on tax compliance

The administration of tax policy has shifted its focus from enforcement to complementary instruments aimed at creating a social norm of tax compliance. In this paper we provide an analysis of the effects of information regarding the past degree of tax evasion at the social level on the current individual tax compliance behavior. We build an experiment where subjects declare their income after receiving either a communication of the average tax evasion rate (“official information”) or a private message from a group of randomly matched peers about their tax behavior (“unofficial information”). We use the experimental data to estimate a dynamic econometric model of tax evasion and find three main results. First, tax compliance is very persistent, but less so in the presence of information. Second, the higher the officially communicated past tax evasion rate, the higher the degree of persistence: former evaders are more likely to evade again (and evade more), and former compliant individuals are more likely to comply again (and, when evading, evade less). Third, when an unofficial communication of past evasion (compliance) from all their peers is received, both former evaders and compliant individuals are more likely to evade (comply) again.     

历史自然地理研究之兴——20世纪50～70年代“任务带学科”组织方式的推动

时轮进入1949年，随着新中国的建立，中国科学院宣告成立，不少专业的高级知识分子逐渐聚拢北京。竺可桢、黄秉维成为中科院地理学科的负责人，谭其骧、侯仁之等学者则聚靠地理研究所，酝酿着历史地理学如何起步发展。为配合国家的生产建设，50～70年代科学院等部门实行的“任务带学科”组织方式，吸引了谭其骧、史念海、侯仁之等学者投身到黄河、黄土高原、西北沙漠改造的研究潮流中，所编著的我国第一套《中国自然地理》丛书中，也确定了《历史自然地理》的选题和著述任务，结果促使历史地理研究循着自然地理（自然综合体）的研究路径发展起来。本文认同科学社会学的研究方法，通过对人物（学者）、学说（论著）、事业（学科）与时代背景之间学术史的初步考察，认为历史自然地理这一领域的研究是通过对现实生产建设所遇问题的历史由来及其症结的揭示来展示学科价值，在当时已被纳入服务国家建设需要的轨道。这一做法产生的一个结果即为:历史地理学研究方法和内容由此得以丰富，历史地理学科因此得到彰显。     

Dementia Patients’ Transition to Residential Aged Care: Carers’ and Social Workers’ Experiences

Many people with dementia eventually require residential aged care, frequently preceded by a hospital admission. Family carers often find the process challenging and disempowering, as they are expected to move their family member to residential aged care quickly. This article reports on findings from a small Australian qualitative study focusing on the provision of information, support and resources, and discusses the findings in relation to person-centred care and critical social work. Social workers completed an online survey and participated in focus groups, and carers were interviewed. The research found that carers valued the information, support, and resources provided by social workers and other hospital staff. They needed time to adjust to the dementia diagnosis and wanted a supportive person to talk to about the written information. The social workers wanted an improved approach to the preparation and communication of information, and a more consistent approach to family meetings.     

加快推进中国手语翻译的职业化——基于新型冠状病毒肺炎疫情的思考

突发的新冠病毒肺炎疫情凸显了进一步推动手语翻译职业化、做好手语应急服务人才储备的紧迫性。在这一时期,信息无障碍工作得到了高度重视,科技手段助力手语翻译行业发展,民间手语翻译员自发加入抗疫工作,取得了不少成果,但也暴露出一些问题。本文对中国手语翻译职业化的历程进行了回顾与评述,对手语翻译人才的培养现状进行了描述与总结,并结合此次疫情中手语翻译的情势与问题,提出了加强法律法规建设、翻译教育自我革新及开创手语翻译中国模式等政策建议。     

Correcting moments for goodness of fit tests based on two entropy estimates

The sample entropy (Vasicek, 1976) has been most widely used as a nonparametric entropy estimator due to its simplicity, but its underlying distribution function has not been known yet though its moments are required in establishing the entropy-based goodness of test statistic (Soofi et al., 1995). In this paper we derive the nonparametric distribution function of the sample entropy as a piece-wise uniform distribution in the lights of Theil (1980) and Dudwicz and van der Meulen (1987). Then we establish the entropy-based goodness of fit test statistics based on the nonparametric distribution functions of the sample entropy and modified sample entropy (Ebrahimi et al., 1994), and compare their performances for the exponential and normal distributions.     

Multidisciplinary eHealth survey evaluation methods

This paper describes the development process of an evaluation framework for describing and comparing web survey tools. We believe that this approach will help shape the design, development, deployment, and evaluation of population-based health interventions. A conceptual framework for describing and evaluating web survey systems will enable the developers of health interventions to identify, select, and use the most appropriate and relevant survey tools. The primary contributors included survey methodologists, computer scientists, informaticians, technical communications specialists, educators, evaluators, clinical practitioners, and health services researchers, who together developed a comprehensive ontology to describe the electronic survey domain. This paper will describe the survey ontology development process and detail lessons learned in the creation of the web survey system evaluation framework.     

Rebound effects of progress in information technology

Information technology (IT) is continuously making astounding progress in technical efficiency. The time, space, material and energy needed to provide a unit of IT service have decreased by three orders of magnitude since the first personal computer (PC) was sold. However, it seems difficult for society to translate IT’s efficiency progress into progress in terms of individual, organizational or socio-economic goals. In particular it seems to be difficult for individuals to work more efficiently, for organizations to be more productive and for the socio-economic system to be more sustainable by using increasingly efficient IT. This article provides empirical evidence and potential explanations for this problem. Many counterproductive effects of IT can be explained economically by rebound effects. Beyond that, we conclude that the technological determinism adopted by decision-makers is the main obstacle in translating IT’s progress into non-technical goals.