Dutch books and agent rationality

According to the Dutch Book Argument (DBA), if an agent's subjective probabilities fail to satisfy the axioms of the probability calculus and so make the agent vulnerable to a Dutch Book, the agent's subjective probabilities are incoherent and the agent is therefore irrational. Critics of DBA have argued, however, that probabilistic incoherence is compatible with various kinds of rationality – logico-semantic, epistemic, instrumental and prudential. In this paper, I provide an interpretation of DBA on which it is true that probabilistic incoherence entails agent irrationality. Articulating this interpretation requires the specification of some of the connections among the varieties of rationality. Once this is done, it becomes possible to vindicate a modest version of DBA.     

论现代社会主体权利的哲学基础

世俗化市场经济浪潮祛除了神性的蒙昧,使功利主义理所当然成为主体权利的哲学基础,失去超验价值的主体权利却遭遇了巨大的悖论。权利本是保障主体尊严的条件,以功利原则作为主体权利的哲学基础,不仅难以保障每个主体的价值尊严,还极易沦为物与自身双重奴役的对象。重新厘清主体权利的哲学基础,重建利益主体超验的维度,使其转化为价值主体,成为时代的命题。康德“目的王国”的实践哲学提供了重要的思想资源,他将权利与功利剥离,以“人是目的”的信念重塑主体超验的维度．真正确立了主体权利“质”的哲学基础。     

Orthogonal weighted empirical likelihood-based variable selection for semiparametric instrumental variable models

In this article, we consider the variable selection for a class of semiparametric instrumental variable models. By combining orthogonal weighting technology and empirical likelihood method, we propose an orthogonal weighted empirical likelihood-based variable selection procedure. Under some mild conditions, the consistency and sparsity of the variable selection procedure are studied. Furthermore, some simulation studies and a real data analysis are carried out to examine the finite-sample performance of the proposed method.     

An Odd Couple: Monotone Instrumental Variables and Binary Treatments

This article investigates Monotone Instrumental Variables (MIV) and their ability to aid in identifying treatment effects when the treatment is binary in a nonparametric bounding framework. I show that an MIV can only aid in identification beyond that of a Monotone Treatment Selection assumption if for some region of the instrument the observed conditional-on-received-treatment outcomes exhibit monotonicity in the instrument in the opposite direction as that assumed by the MIV in a Simpson's Paradox-like fashion. Furthermore, an MIV can only aid in identification beyond that of a Monotone Treatment Response assumption if for some region of the instrument either the above Simpson's Paradox-like relationship exists or the instrument's indirect effect on the outcome (as through its influence on treatment selection) is the opposite of its direct effect as assumed by the MIV. The implications of the main findings for empirical work are discussed and the results are highlighted with an application investigating the effect of criminal convictions on job match quality using data from the 1997 National Longitudinal Survey of the Youth. Though the main results are shown to hold only for the binary treatment case in general, they are shown to have important implications for the multi-valued treatment case as well.     

中国现代政治意识建构中的工具理性建设

中国传统政治意识在遭遇近代西学之后逐渐趋于支离破碎。伴随着传统政治意识的碎片化,中国现代政治意识开始重新建构。然而,现代政治意识的建构在中国不仅一波三折,而且其内部结构也不平衡,价值理性明显地占有优势地位,而工具理性则不够健全。工具理性不够健全,一方面导致了形式、程序等在政治生活中的残缺,形式与程序落后于现实政治的需要;另一方面又表现为公民理性的不足,公民既缺乏充分的认知理性,也缺乏必要的行为理性。充实和健全现代政治意识工具理性迫切地要求政治学特别是政治科学既要充分吸收西方现代政治科学的方法、范式、结论等优秀成果,更要加速其本土化与普及化的进程,发展中国特色的政治认知理性与实践理性。     

哈耶克的默会知识与社会的合理化生成

哈耶克的默会知识理论揭示出默会知识是人类知识大厦的基础,在人和社会的生成中有着重要的作用,是社会有序协调发展的知识和文化根基,应当以个人默会知识效用的最大化发挥作为判定社会运行机制合理性的依据。当前,我们应当从工具理性、价值理性和审美理性的有机统一来完善理性,在人们的交往实践中汇聚默会知识,实现科学知识、道德知识、审美知识的共同增长,将市场配置资源的决定性作用与汇聚默会知识和完善理性相结合,克服工具理性和资本逻辑的现代性困境,构建当代中国知识型的合理化社会,增强创新驱动,走出中等收入国家陷阱。     

Lay theories of networking ability: Beliefs that inhibit instrumental networking

While touting the importance of building effective networks, scholars have paid far less attention to why so many people feel so ambivalent or conflicted about instrumental networking, and what can be done to change such attitudes. The present research provides the first empirical test of a novel theory, which argues that people are more likely to disengage from networking if they hold a “fixed theory” of networking ability—believing that how well one networks is fixed or innate rather than learned through effort—which triggers negative attitudes toward moral and instrumental aspects of networking. To test this argument, we first develop and validate a Lay Theory of Networking Ability scale (Study 1) and show that this scale predicts people’s attendance in networking events over a 6-week period (Study 2). Next, we show that lay theories can be experimentally manipulated, with consequences for attendance in networking events over a 4-week period (Study 3) as well as people’s affective experiences in networking events (Study 4). In all, the present research contributes to our understanding of the motivational psychology of networking by highlighting the importance of beliefs as an understudied construct in the networks literature and by introducing methods to measure and manipulate them.     

Iterative regularisation in nonparametric instrumental regression

This paper considers the nonparametric regression model with an additive error that is correlated with the explanatory variables. Motivated by empirical studies in epidemiology and economics, it also supposes that valid instrumental variables are observed. However, the estimation of a nonparametric regression function by instrumental variables is an ill-posed linear inverse problem with an unknown but estimable operator. We provide a new estimator of the regression function that is based on projection onto finite dimensional spaces and that includes an iterative regularisation method (the Landweber–Fridman method). The optimal number of iterations and the convergence of the mean square error of the resulting estimator are derived under both strong and weak source conditions. A Monte Carlo exercise shows the impact of some parameters on the estimator and concludes on the reasonable finite sample performance of the new estimator.     

Normal tests for unit roots based on instrumental variable estimators

For estimating unit roots of autoregressive processes, we introduce a new instrumental variable (IV) method which discounts large values of regressors corresponding to the unit roots. Based on the IV estimator, we propose new unit root tests whose limiting null distributions are standard normal. Observation at time t is adjusted for mean recursively by the sample mean of observations up to the time t. The powers of the proposed tests are better than those of the Dickey–Fuller tests and are comparable to those of the tests based on the weighted symmetric estimator, which are known to have the best power against stationary alternatives.     

A two-stage estimation for panel data models with grouped fixed effects

ABSTRACT

This paper considers panel data models with fixed effects which have grouped patterns with unknown group membership. A two-stage estimation (TSE) procedure is developed to improve the properties of the GFE estimators of common parameters when the time span is small. Firstly, the common parameters are estimated. Subsequently, the optimal group assignment and the estimators of group effects are obtained by the K-means algorithm. Monte Carlo results reveal that the TSE estimator has a much smaller bias than the GFE estimator when the values of difference between effects are moderately small or at high variance of the idiosyncratic error.