货币政策规则对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变影响——基于TVP-SV-VAR模型的实证检验

本文从货币政策理论出发,构建以稳定国际资本流动与人民币汇率的“多目标”货币政策规则理论模型,并采用1998年1月至2019年11月的月度数据,建立开放经济下的TVP-SV-VAR模型,实证检验不同货币政策规则下货币供应冲击、利率冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的时变与动态影响。结果表明：(1)不同时间阶段,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响存在较强的时变特征。(2)等间隔脉冲响应表明,货币政策冲击对国际资本流动的短期影响效应要高于中长期,而对人民币汇率的影响却存在一定滞后性和扩散性,且价格型规则更有利于熨平外部冲击对国际资本流动与人民币汇率的影响。(3)时点脉冲响应表明,利率冲击对国际资本流动和人民币汇率的影响弱于货币供应冲击,且利率冲击对国际资本流动的影响回到稳态均衡的速度更快。总体来看,在调节国际资本流动和稳定人民币汇率的效果上,价格型规则优于数量型规则,我国央行货币政策选择应逐步从数量型规则向价格型规则转变。     

外汇储备与金融脆弱性关系研究--基于金砖五国的实证分析

外汇储备通过传导机制对国内金融部门产生影响,研究外汇储备变化对金融稳定的影响是国家金融安全的重要内容。本文选取中国、巴西、俄罗斯、印度和南非五个金砖国家作为新兴市场国家的典型代表,采用Johansen协整检验和Bayesian向量自回归建模方法,实证研究外汇储备变化与金融脆弱性的关系。研究表明,不管从长期还是短期来看,外汇储备变化量增加会提高金融脆弱性指数,帮助国家应对短期经济波动,因此,增加外汇储备有助于国内金融部门稳定,抵御经济危机。     

汇率货币模型的非线性协整关系检验——基于深度GRU神经网络

本文采用深度门控循环单元(GRU)神经网络探讨三种汇率货币模型(弹性价格、前瞻性和实际利率差模型)的非线性协整关系。GRU技术在深度学习中具有智能记忆、自主学习和强逼近能力等优点。为此,本文运用该技术对6组典型浮动汇率制国别数据进行了非线性Johansen协整检验。结果表明,汇率与宏观经济基本面之间存在非线性协整关系,从而说明了货币模型在非线性条件下的有效性,以及先进的深度学习工具在检验经济理论中的优势。     

Some quantitative concepts of value and utility from a utilitarian point of view

This paper clarifies and interprets some basic quantitative concepts of value, utility and utility function from a utilitarian point of view. First, I discuss the question as to whether value is objective or subjective. I hold that value is subjective and statistical in nature (although from the various subjective values of a certain object a norm can usually be obtained). Second, I emphasize the distinction between use value and exchange value in relation to utility. Third, I propose a law of diminishing incremental interest, which refers to the incremental (marginal) utility of money. Fourth, I identify the utility of money with the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility. Fifth, I question the necessity of the usual normalization of utility functions and the restricted linear transformation (and the consequent concept of strategic equivalence). Sixth, I discuss in detail the terminal values and utilities of a utility function from a philosophical rather than mathematical point of view, particularly the boundedness of a utility function and the magnitudes of V ₀ and U ₀. Finally, I conclude that, in order to be able to have interpersonal comparisons of utility, utility should have the same dimension as value rather than no dimension, and the normalization problem should be reconsidered in the light of terminal values and utilities.     

新型大孔弱酸树脂的合成及性能研究

介绍了新型大孔弱酸树脂的合成方法。用该方法合成的树脂具有生产成本低,物化性能优越等特点,能更好地满足水处理工艺的要求。     

The Labor Market Participation of Sandwich Generation Italian Women

We empirically analyzed the labor market participation of Italian women, with special emphasis on the role of intergenerational family links. Older relatives, on the one hand, discourage the work participation of women by requiring care; on the other hand they may provide household services favoring labor supply. We studied this dual impact estimating a trivariate probit model where the three choices to be in the labor force, to use informal help from older relatives and to care for them are jointly determined. Our estimates show that care duties towards members of the previous generation hinder the labor market participation of Italian women, and that informal help received from older relatives strongly increases their probability of being engaged in paid work.

Senior centers in the era of the “Third Age:” Country clubs, community centers, or something else?

This study explored how senior center employees conceptualize their work and organizational mission. Unstructured interviews with multiple service providers (N = 32) and participant observation in one center reveal a growing emphasis on selling individualized lifestyles to young, healthy, and active seniors, as opposed to a more communal, intergenerational approach. In interviews, service providers talked about “community” in vague and ambiguous terms. At the same time, the philosophy of some providers was informed by a well-developed discourse of individual choice. In discussing needed resources and future goals, service providers spoke to the difficulty of appealing to different cohorts of seniors, but focused primarily on the needs of young seniors and expressed a desire to combat the “image problem” of senior centers. These trends have potentially negative implications for intergenerational community and the developmental passages of seniors. Nevertheless, centers offer many opportunities for seniors to forge connections and bridge differences, and the study concludes with some suggestions for building on these existing resources.     

Who Lacks Support and Why? An Examination of Mothers' Personal Safety Nets

We use data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study (N = 12,140 person-waves) to identify characteristics associated with mothers' having or lacking "personal safety net" support from family and friends. We focus on characteristics that are likely to increase the importance of having support available but may also interfere with the maintenance of supportive ties: poverty, poor physical and mental health, and challenging child rearing responsibilities. By capitalizing on distinctions among these types of personal disadvantages and among types of personal safety nets (financial, housing, child care, and emotional), we help to explain why personal disadvantages are associated with weaker support. Our paper contributes to the literature emphasizing the importance of reciprocity in support relationships and introduces the idea that families that are more difficult to help will have less support available.     

Bridging help-seeking options to Vietnamese Americans with parent–child conflict and depressive symptoms

To help practitioners bridge services to their clients who face family problems, this research aims to identify help-seeking behaviors among Vietnamese Americans who have experienced parent–child conflict and depression. The 2008 Asian Survey found that 46.3% of 572 Vietnamese Americans experienced parent–child conflict and 30.2% reported depressive symptoms. Having parent–child conflicts or depressive symptoms did not predict help-seeking from mental health professionals. Logistic regression results show that having parent–child conflict would increase the likelihood by 81.7% of a thinking that the problem will be naturally resolved; having depressive symptoms would increase the likelihood of seeking help from herbalists by 1.718 times and from medical doctors by 39.7%. Service strategies should include offering educational programs by multidisciplinary professionals with a focus on the natural aspect of building parent–child bonding.