Self-validated Computations for the Probabilities of the Central Bivariate Chi-square Distribution and a Bivariate F Distribution. This work partially supported by National Science Foundation grant DMS-9500831

Self-validated computations using interval analysis produce results with a guaranteed error bound. This article presents methods for self-validated computation of probabilities and percentile points of the bivariate chi-square distribution and a bivariate F distribution. For the computation of critical points (c ₁,c ₂) in the equation P(Y ₁ @ c ₁, Y ₂ ≤ c ₂) = 1 ? α, the case c ₁ = c ₂ is considered. A combination of interval secant and bisection algorithms is developed for finding enclosures of the percentile points of the distribution. Results are compared to previously published tables.     

The ‘Bakul Gendong’ as a communication strategy to reject the construction of a cement factory in Central Java

Since 2006, one of Indonesia’s biggest corporations operating in the cement industry has been trying to build a factory at Sukolilo village in Central Java, Indonesia. The potential for of environmental damage caused by mining and the construction of this new factory is the main source of conflict between the public and the giant corporation.The focus of this research was the communication strategy adopted by women in the community to reject the construction of the cement factory in Pati, Central Java, Indonesia. This research used a qualitative method through a case study approach. Interviews, observations, and literature studies were used as data collection techniques for in this research.We found that the practices of the “Bakul Gendong” communication strategy were effective in developing women’s awareness of environmental issues based on the values they believe in. Through the women peddlers, women’s awareness of the risk of environmental damage caused by the cement factories was successfully developed. They also created female farmers’ group named “Simbar Wareh” to strengthen cooperation between them and to better-organize their resistance. The women’s movement to resist the cement factory was also conducted by building a network, meeting authorities, demonstrating, displaying traditional symbols during celebrations such as the “Agustusan” (independence day celebration) and Kartinian (women’s day) as their sites of resistance. The local government and PT. Semen Gresik tended to use technical and economical communicative approaches, while the people mainly refer to local know how PT. Semen Gresik did not use the right communication strategy to understand the conflict that arose and how to handle it, until after 10 years of trying to build a factory in Sukolilo.     

央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力研究

信息沟通有助于公众理解和预测货币政策的实际干预,进而提高货币政策有效性。研究中国人民银行的信息沟通对实际政策干预的预测能力需要解决沟通文本的测度问题,同时考虑实际政策干预多工具并用的复杂性。基于此,本文通过文本分析方法提取《货币政策执行报告》的信息,进而考察央行沟通对于货币政策实际干预的预测能力。研究表明,整体而言,市场对中国人民银行“听其言”有助于“观其行”。具体来看,央行沟通对于直接可控的基准利率和存款准备金率具有持续的预测能力,但对于市场利率的预测能力较差,对于M2增长率的预测甚至存在方向不一致的情况。     

Assumptions,conjectures, and other miracles: The application of evaluative thinking to theory of change models in community development

Unexamined and unjustified assumptions are the Achilles’ heel of development programs. In this paper, we describe an evaluation capacity building (ECB) approach designed to help community development practitioners work more effectively with assumptions through the intentional infusion of evaluative thinking (ET) into the program planning, monitoring, and evaluation process. We focus specifically on one component of our ET promotion approach involving the creation and analysis of theory of change (ToC) models. We describe our recent efforts to pilot this ET ECB approach with Catholic Relief Services (CRS) in Ethiopia and Zambia. The use of ToC models, plus the addition of ET, is a way to encourage individual and organizational learning and adaptive management that supports more reflective and responsive programming.     

基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析

本文旨在研究基于fused惩罚的稀疏主成分分析方法，以适用于相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据情形。首先，从回归分析角度出发，提出一种求解稀疏主成分的简便思路，给出一种广义的稀疏主成分模型—— GSPCA模型及其求解算法，并证明在惩罚函数取1-范数时，该模型与现有的稀疏主成分模型——SPC模型的求解结果一致。其次，本文提出将fused惩罚与主成分分析相结合，得到一种fused稀疏主成分分析方法，并从惩罚性矩阵分解和回归分析两个角度，给出两种模型形式。在理论上证明了两种模型的求解结果是一致的，故将其统称为FSPCA模型。模拟实验显示，FSPCA模型在处理相邻变量之间高度相关甚至完全相等的数据集上的表现良好。最后，将FSPCA模型应用于手写数字识别，发现与SPC模型相比，FSPCA模型所提取的主成分具备更好的解释性，这使得该模型更具实用价值。     

A permutation alternative and other test procedures for spatially correlated data in one-way anova

Research in many disciplines involves data with spatially correlated observations. Spatial dependence violates the independent errors assumption required for techniques such as the standard one-way analysis of variance for a completely randomized design. The testing methodology within the correlated errors approach has not been investigated within a spatial context. For one-way fixed effects analysis of variance, a permutation test and tests associated with the correlated errors approach are investigated through simulation. No single test was superior with respect to both power and size but the standard Wald F test and a simple adjustment to it performed well overall.     

Influence of National Qualifications Frameworks in Conceptualising Feedback to Students

Social work students in Britain receive feedback on a range of academic and practice issues as they progress through qualifying courses, however the way in which feedback differs to reflect the increasing complexity of learning as the course progresses is unclear. There is little, if any, guidance at a national level and the most widely known documents that provide information about the hierarchy of qualifications are the National Qualifications Frameworks (NQFs). Despite the widespread acceptance of NQFs there is little evidence supporting their use in professional areas such as social work. This study uses a documentary analysis to critique the Scottish Credit and Qualifications Framework (SCQF). The findings suggest that there are fundamental difficulties with the SCQF and its value in helping academics to better conceptualise feedback that reflects the increasing complexity of learning throughout the social work qualifying course. Whilst the SCQF is specific to a Scottish context, it is suggested that the inherent limitations and dominance of a neo-liberal ideology are common to other NQFs. It may be necessary to create the conditions where academics and students are able to discuss and debate the merits of NQFs and their implementation in social work qualifying courses.     

Peer influence on protest participation: Communication and trust between co-workers as inhibitors or facilitators of mobilization

In this article, we investigate how communication and trust networks between employees affect participation in a strike. We analyze whether the strength of network relations is related to congruence in strike behavior using social network data on 59 Dutch workers. We find that private communication networks and trust networks lead to similar strike behavior. This finding indicates that networks not only promote protest mobilization but are also vehicles for demobilization, albeit through different network relations.     

Insecure times? Workers' perceived job and labor market security in 23 OECD countries

By examining the association between employees' perceptions of job security and central labor market policies and characteristics, this paper seeks to understand the mechanisms through which institutions generate confidence and positive expectations among individuals regarding their economic future. The analyses distinguish between different facets of perceived job security and different institutional mechanisms. My multilevel analyses of a data set that contains information on 12,431 individuals and 23 countries show that some labor market policies and characteristics are more likely than others to provide workers with subjective security. Unemployment assistance in particular is an effective means of reducing workers' worries about job loss. Dismissal protection, by contrast, only unleashes its psychologically protective effects under certain conditions. The paper's main conclusion is that the effectiveness of policies varies and that different types of labor market institutions serve as complements rather than as substitutes.     

Icons,Itinerary, and Identity: Associations of Boundary and Mobility within the Contemporary US Passport

Regulatory shifts in US border policy set in motion through implementation of the Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative are concurrent with recent formal and functional changes to the US passport. This article examines these modifications interweaving themes of boundary, mobility, and identity. The study focuses on the tripartite means by which the state employs the passport: as the primary affixer of national identity; as a mediator of contact and mobility across national boundaries; and as a mode for the projection of a certain territorial discourse to its citizenry and ‘others.’ These concepts are developed through an analysis of the narrative and iconic representations contained within the new book itself; material sources from government archives; as well as discussions and interviews with US State Department functionaries closely associated with the design and distribution of the new e-passport. Through the latter examination, a view is afforded into the process by which key state documents are crafted and an inherent tension revealed within an agency charged with establishing a particular unifying ‘brand’ for the preeminent instrument of national identification, whilst dutifully acknowledging the diverse constituency of a nation that historically fashions itself as one constructed from the many. In conclusion, the study suggests that the new passport is the handiwork of a plethora of state actors and a servant of many masters, for it is not only a facilitator of mobility and a vouchsafe for the identity of the bearer, but also, a tiny but significant piece of US property, itself an agent of border maintenance and boundary construction that enables the state to lay claim to its citizenry.