朝鲜半岛核问题与新世纪中国外交

朝鲜半岛核问题是当前世界一个非常重要而复杂的问题.这个问题的解决在很大程度上体现着新世纪中国的外交思想、外交思维和外交走向.朝鲜半岛核问题的实质是大国关系,对此,可以从朝鲜半岛核问题的定位、相关现状、发展趋势及中国新世纪外交努力的方向等几个方面来进行分析.     

朝核问题与中国的战略选择

美朝双方在安全与战略利益以及目标诉求上存在的尖锐矛盾,最终使朝鲜走上了发展核武器之路.朝鲜拥有核武器不仅违背中国及周边大国对朝鲜半岛的基本原则,还为日本发展军事力量提供了借口,同时也为美国军事打击朝鲜创造了可能性.这对与朝鲜咫尺相邻的中国而言,国家安全利益受到严重威胁,因此中国坚决反对朝鲜拥有核武器,并投票赞成联合国安理会对朝鲜的有关决议,中朝关系开始出现一些微妙的变化.为和平解决朝核问题,中国始终积极推动六方会谈持续进行,承担起了国际社会所期望的负责任的大国重任.毋庸置疑,未来中朝两国还会继续保持和发展传统友谊.     

试论政治解决克什米尔问题的背景因素

克什米尔问题久拖未决,是制约印巴关系发展的核心因素。在双方的战争历史记忆和双向核威慑的背景下,印巴领导人意识到继续保持战略对抗越来越不符合各自国家的现实和长远利益。双方致力于以《西姆拉协定》为改善关系的政治基础,不断推进、深化印巴和平进程,争取为解决克什米尔问题创造良好的外交环境。由于第三方在国际危机管理和解决印巴间争端与冲突中的成功实践,克什米尔问题的最终解决并不应排除第三方的参与。文章认为,政治路径是印巴在克什米尔问题上的现实选择。     

The digital rainbow: Some history and applications of numerical spectrum analysis

Statistical concepts and techniques are basic to scientific investigation. One concept that enjoys both a theoretical and a physical existence is the spectrum. A spectrum may be described as a display of the intensity or variability of a phenomenon versus period or frequency. Spectra are particularly useful in the study of systems subject to resonance, but have many other uses. This paper begins with some of the historical development of the field, describing a sequence of contributions by Michelson, Schuster, Einstein, Fisher, Bartlett, Tukey, and Whittle. The paper next presents collaborative applications to the study of the free oscillations of the earth, to the dispersion of seismic surface waves and to nuclear-magnetic-resonance spectroscopy. Finally, there is mention of open problems and opinions on future directions.     

Risk Knowledge and Risk Attitudes Regarding Nuclear Energy Sources in Space

A series of four studies examined the relationship between how much people know about the risks of using nuclear energy sources in space and how they feel about the technology. We found that the more people know, the more favorable they are—except for two groups of people selected from organizations with strong pro-industry or pro-environment positions. These results suggest that a technology will get a more favorable hearing if it can get its message out—providing that it has a legitimate story to tell and that the situation has not become too polarized already. The limits to these conclusions are discussed.     

Bounding Estimates for Critical Events When Directly Disposing Highly Enriched Spent Nuclear Fuel in Unsaturated Tuff

This paper examines the possibility of criticality in a nuclear waste repository. The estimated probabilities are rough bounds and do not entirely dismiss the possibility of a critical condition; however, they do point to the difficulty of creating conditions under which a critical mass could be assembled (i.e., corrosion of containers, separation of neutron absorbers from the fissile material, and collapse or precipitation of the fissile material). In addition, should a criticality occur in or near a container, the bounding consequence calculations showed that fissions from one critical event are quite small (<˜10²⁰ fissions, if similar to aqueous and metal accidents and experiments). Furthermore, a reasonable upper bound of total critical events of 10²⁸ fissions corresponds to only 0.1% of the number of fissions represented by the spent nuclear fuel inventory in a repository containing 70,000 metric tons of heavy metal (MTHM) (the expected size for the proposed repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada).     

The Vulnerability of the Nevada Visitor Economy to a Repository at Yucca Mountain

This article reviews the studies commissioned by the Nevada Nuclear Waste Project Office to estimate the economic impact of a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. Case studies found that visitor impacts occur for some analogous facilities, but not for others. Assessments of behavioral intent indicate that at least some economic agents would avoid visiting Nevada under repository scenarios. A third set of studies tested the risk-aversion and negative-imagery models of visitor decision making; people avoid visiting places associated with either a significant health risk or negative imagery, but it has yet to be shown that a repository would induce these perceptions in nearby places. In sum, the NWPO-sponsored studies suggest the potential for visitor impacts, but do confirm that these effects will occur.     

核心强化词和非核心强化词

受语言学家Dixon核心动词/非核心动词假说的启示,把这一理念用到了副词强化词中,提出了核心强化词/非核心强化词的设想,通过对不同种类强化词的讨论,认为very和much两词强化程度适中,中性,搭配宽泛,常常用来释义其他强化词,因此,是两个核心强化词.其余是非核心强化词,又分为最高强化词、融义强化和其他强化词,对语言的丰富表达同样起着不可取代的作用.     

球对称荷电荷磁黑洞的非热辐射及其辐射粒子的平均射程研究

稳态的动态球对称荷电荷磁黑洞的非热辐射受到星际物质的影响,其非热辐射粒子的平均射程与非热辐射的最大能量和能量范围有关.     

Safety Risk Analysis of an Innovative Environmental Technology

The authors describe a decision and risk analysis performed for the cleanup of a large Department of Energy mixed-waste subsurface disposal area governed by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA). In a previous study, the authors worked with the site decision makers, state regulators, and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency regional regulators to develop a CERCLA-based multiobjective decision analysis value model and used the model to perform a screening analysis of 28 remedial alternatives. The analysis results identified an innovative technology, in situ vitrification, with high effectiveness versus cost. Since this technology had not been used on this scale before, the major uncertainties were contaminant migration and pressure buildup. Pressure buildup was a safety concern due to the potential risks to worker safety. With the help of environmental technology experts remedial alternative changes were identified to mitigate the concerns about contaminant migration and pressure buildup. The analysis results showed that the probability of an event with a risk to worker safety had been significantly reduced. Based on these results, site decision makers have refocused their test program to examine in situ vitrification and have continued the use of the CERCLA-based decision analysis methodology to analyze remedial alternatives.