Decidedly Different: Expert and Public Views of Risks from a Radioactive Waste Repository

A questionnaire with items that had been used in a national survey of the general public was administered to persons attending an American Nuclear Society meeting. The items asked about risks associated with high-level nuclear waste (HLNW), trust in nuclear-waste program managers, costs and benefits of a repository project, and images of a HLNW repository. The results suggest that nuclear industry experts may have very different opinions from the general public about most of these items and their images of a repository indicate a vastly different conceptual framework within which their opinions are formed.     

A Decision Theory Perspective on the Disposal of High-Level Radioactive Waste

In this paper the problem of high-level nuclear waste disposal is viewed as a five-stage, cascaded decision problem. The first four of these decisions having essentially been made, the work of recent years has been focused on the fifth stage, which concerns specifics of the repository design. The probabilistic performance assessment (PPA) work is viewed as the outcome prediction for this stage, and the site characterization work as the information gathering option. This brief examination of the proposed Yucca Mountain repository through a decision analysis framework resulted in three conclusions: (1) A decision theory approach to the process of selecting and characterizing Yucca Mountain would enhance public understanding of the issues and solutions to high-level waste management; (2) engineered systems are an attractive alternative to offset uncertainties in the containment capability of the natural setting and should receive greater emphasis in the design of the repository; and (3) a strategy of waste management should be adopted, as opposed to waste disposal, as it allows for incremental confirmation and confidence building of a permanent solution to the high-level waste problem.     

关于“核心家庭”概念和“婚姻”定义的探讨－学术史回顾及摩梭走访制引发的思考

中国摩梭个案对于人类学家在婚姻与亲属领域的研究无疑具有重要意义,它已经引起了学者们的广泛关注.以下的文字节译自美籍华裔人类学家施传刚的博士论文<永宁摩梭中国西南一个异居制母系社会的性联盟、家户组织、文化性别与民族认同>(美国斯坦福大学,1993年).尽管它多半不是作者的结论而只是进一步研究的基础,然而,这段简明的学术史的述评性回顾可以让我们对国外同行在该研究领域里的历史状况有一个基本的了解.译文是原作第8章"两栖居、走访制、核心家庭以及婚姻的定义"内的两小节,大题目由译者拟制,两小节的标题则是原来有的.     

The Paradoxes of Modernity: Scientific Advances,Environmental Problems,and Risks to the Social Fabric?

Recent reviews have contrasted U.S. sociologists' empirical work on technological risks with the theoretical risk work of Giddens and Beck, but the reality is more complex. Most U.S. sociologists are less likely than Giddens or Beck to see risks as transcending socioeconomic and other divisions, but the United States–based work tends to interpret the trustworthiness of scientific–technical expertise in ways that lie between the arguments of Beck and Giddens. An examination of early nuclear technologies indicates that the United States–based perspectives provide a better fit, for theoretical as well as empirical reasons. The development of nuclear technologies was mixed, rather than high or low, in its competence and trustworthiness, and it created social and environmental risks that did not so much transcend social divisions as to reinforce them.     

Variability of Site-Reactor Risk

Reactor accident consequence models have been developed (for example, the CRAC model of the Reactor Safety Study (RSS), WASH-1400) to predict the offsite health and economic consequences of severe accidents at a reactor site with generic demographic and meteorological characteristics. Application of a revised RSS accident consequence model, CRAC2, to 91 existing sites results in a band of risk curves around the earlier WASH-1400 average reactor/site predictions. This paper examines these calculations and important model assumptions such as population distribution, emergency response, and meteorological data with respect to their effects on site risk extremes—that is, the combination of high consequence/low probability events.     

Sensitivity and Uncertainty Studies of the CRAC2 Computer Code

We have studied the sensitivity of health impacts from nuclear reactor accidents, as predicted by the CRAC2 computer code, to the following sources of uncertainty: (1) the model for plume rise, (2) the model for wet deposition, (3) the meteorological bin-sampling procedure for selecting weather sequences with rain, (4) the dose conversion factors for inhalation as affected by uncertainties in the particle size of the carrier aerosol and the clearance rates of radionuclides from the respiratory tract, (5) the weathering half-time for external ground-surface exposure, and (6) the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Predicted health impacts usually showed little sensitivity to use of an alternative plume-rise model or a modified rain-bin structure in bin-sampling. Health impacts often were quite sensitive to use of an alternative wet-deposition model in single-trial runs with rain during plume passage, but were less sensitive to the model in bin-sampling runs. Uncertainties in the inhalation dose conversion factors had important effects on early injuries in single-trial runs. Latent cancer fatalities were moderately sensitive to uncertainties in the weathering half-time for ground-surface exposure, but showed little sensitivity to the transfer coefficients for terrestrial foodchain pathways. Sensitivities of CRAC2 predictions to uncertainties in the models and parameters also depended on the magnitude of the source term, and some of the effects on early health effects were comparable to those that were due only to selection of different sets of weather sequences in bin-sampling.     

核电产品生命周期成本研究

随着核电在我国能源结构中的地位逐渐提高,人们对其经济性的关注度日益增强。传统成本理论下计算的核电成本拘泥于核电企业发生的内部成本,已不能满足社会对于全面了解核电成本的需求。文章运用产品生命周期成本理论对核电成本进行细致剖析,总结出其除传统成本外,还包括环境成本、健康成本及安全成本,这三大成本贯穿于核电形成始终。文章并对其构成进行了分析且对其核算与报告的方法展开了初步探究。     

历史传统、核武认知与官僚政治——印度军方被置身于核问题决策之外的动因探析

作为核武使用者的军方长期被排除在核问题决策之外,是印度核政策制定最鲜明的特色,这一独特的历史悖论背后有其自身演进的逻辑与动因。并非军方长期对于印度的核武开发无动于衷,国际战略格局的急剧变化与各自的军种利益促使印度三军领导人于20世纪80年代中后期积极鼓吹核计划的军事化。但由于政治领导人不信任军方的历史传统、长时期基于象征性威慑而非实战运用的核武认知、国防科学家垄断核事务的强烈企图等多重合力的作用,使得印度的核开发长期停留在象征性威慑层面,不仅制约了印度核武开发走向实战化的力度与强度,而且必然导致作为核战略重要谋划者的军方无法深入参与事关核武开发的重大决策。     

The need to improve communication about scope changes: frustration as an indicator of operational inefficiencies

Early and timely sharing of information can provide a sustainable competitive advantage. However, even if lean information management aims to improve this information flow, it has mainly been investigated in ‘operations-based’ companies. This paper fills this gap, drawing upon the experience of the authors working within a large project-based company engaged in the ‘engineer and manufacture to order’ of a complex piece of equipment costing millions of dollars, for its strategic long-term client, both working in the same industrial field, i.e. nuclear decommissioning. This research investigates the information flow regarding scope changes between the project-based company and the long-term client adapting and applying a five-step framework to highlight operational inefficiencies, reduce the corresponding transaction costs and increase the overall company’s competitiveness. This is exemplified through a particular case, but can be applied to other project-based companies dealing with strategic clients involved in long-term relationships.     

从六方会谈看朝鲜半岛和平进程

朝核问题由来已久,从朝美的《框架协议》到朝核危机的爆发已有五年,六方会谈四次成功地举行为朝核危机的解决提供了不可多得的机会,朝鲜和平进程又现曙光。从六方会谈的由来、四次六方会谈的成果剖析来探讨朝鲜半岛的和平进程以及中国在六方会谈中的贡献。