基于技术轨道理论的核电堆型技术创新路线图结构

核电技术轨道存在着单轨道的二维结构和多轨道的并列结构,在创新模式上分别体现为顺轨式的改进性创新和跃轨式的革命性创新或融轨式的集成性创新。核电堆型技术创新路线图是市场拉动和技术推动的交互作用下,以创新环节的任务与目标为时间节点的堆型技术轨道演变轨迹图。植入技术轨道结构的技术创新路线图结构为我国核电堆型技术创新提供了路线图结构框架,对制定具体堆型技术创新路线图具有重要的指导性意义。     

我国核电技术的能力演进与追赶路径

我国发展第三代核电技术面临着技术先进性与适应性的协调问题。从我国核电技术能力的演进历程和经典Rothwell创新理论视野来看,我国第一至三代核电技术采取不同追赶路径与Rothwell第一至第五代创新模式具有一定的匹配性。目前我国核电技术追赶,需要抓住AP1000核电技术跨越式切入点,加快研发出三代的衍生产品;同时,政府通过引导系统集成网络创新、建立产品开发平台,积累自主创新的技术能力。     

论核事故应急救援人员的特殊性与个体素质要求

核事故应急救援行动是减少核事故给公众带来危害的重要途径和手段.由于核事故的特殊性和复杂性,核事故将对应急救援人员形成不同程度的危害.为了降低核事故救援活动中对救援人员产生的危害,文章从核事故救援人员分类入手,分析核事故应急活动救援人员的特殊性,并重点探讨核事故应急救援人员应具有的个体素质,以期为我国核应急救援队伍建设提供参考.     

Detecting nuclear materials smuggling: performance evaluation of container inspection policies

In recent years, the United States, along with many other countries, has significantly increased its detection and defense mechanisms against terrorist attacks. A potential attack with a nuclear weapon, using nuclear materials smuggled into the country, has been identified as a particularly grave threat. The system for detecting illicit nuclear materials that is currently in place at U.S. ports of entry relies heavily on passive radiation detectors and a risk-scoring approach using the automated targeting system (ATS). In this article we analyze this existing inspection system and demonstrate its performance for several smuggling scenarios. We provide evidence that the current inspection system is inherently incapable of reliably detecting sophisticated smuggling attempts that use small quantities of well-shielded nuclear material. To counter the weaknesses of the current ATS-based inspection system, we propose two new inspection systems: the hardness control system (HCS) and the hybrid inspection system (HYB). The HCS uses radiography information to classify incoming containers based on their cargo content into "hard" or "soft" containers, which then go through different inspection treatment. The HYB combines the radiography information with the intelligence information from the ATS. We compare and contrast the relative performance of these two new inspection systems with the existing ATS-based system. Our studies indicate that the HCS and HYB policies outperform the ATS-based policy for a wide range of realistic smuggling scenarios. We also examine the impact of changes in adversary behavior on the new inspection systems and find that they effectively preclude strategic gaming behavior of the adversary.     

Weighing the Risks of Nuclear Energy and Climate Change: Trust in Different Information Sources,Perceived Risks,and Willingness to Pay for Alternatives to Nuclear Power

We examined how individuals perceive nuclear energy in the context of climate change mitigation and how their perceptions are associated with trust in different risk information sources. We analyzed the interrelationships between trust, perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, perception of nuclear energy as an acceptable way to mitigate climate change, and willingness to pay (WTP) for alternatives to nuclear power. A nationwide survey (N = 967) collected in Finland was analyzed with structural equation modeling. The associations between trust and perceived risk of nuclear power, climate change concern, and perception of nuclear power as a way to mitigate climate change varied by the type of information source. Political party support and other background variables were associated with trust in different information sources. The effect of trust in information sources on WTP was mediated by perceived risks and benefits. The results will increase our understanding of how individuals perceive nuclear energy as a way to cut CO₂ emissions and the role of trust in different information sources in shaping nuclear risk perceptions and energy choices.     

环境何以为权利之体系论——以环境核权利与环境束权利为视角

生态文明入宪以及民法典的颁布，提升了人们对环境权的预期，但一定要避免环境权在论证中过度泛化的问题；要充分认识环境权不可替代的独特权利价值；识别出与环境有关的但并非环境权所独有的权利，明晰环境权的核心内涵；环境权的规范与社会功能导致环境权应被再次认真对待并加快其宪法化进程。     

大股东持股与企业社会责任表现的关系研究——基于2008—2012年核电及相关行业上市公司的实证

企业社会责任的履行正受到越来越多的关注,文章选取2008—2012年核电及相关行业的上市公司为研究样本,从所有权性质和企业绩效的角度研究了大股东持股与企业社会责任之间关系的适用范围以及作用机制。通过实证分析,发现：大股东持股比例越高的企业更倾向于履行社会责任。但是这一现象在非国有企业中却并未得到验证;大股东持股是通过提高企业的业绩来加强企业社会责任的履行。     

金正日外交战略的调整与六方会谈

朝鲜半岛局势事关东北亚地区的和平与稳定,关系到周边国家的地缘政治和国家利益。自2002年新一轮朝核危机爆发以来,围绕解决这一危机的六方会谈一直在继续,并一波三折。“核牌”是朝鲜金正日外交战略的表现手段之一,其目的绝不仅仅在于核武器本身。因此,深刻认识金正日外交战略的调整,认识这一调整的原因对于我们正确认识六方会谈,正确分析美国及周边国家在此次危机中的表现具有重要意义。     

人因视角下的核安全文化评估指标体系与评估方法研究

为了建立核安全文化的评估指标体系与评估方法,文章通过实地调查与访谈,基于人因视角从决策层、管理层和执行层建立更为详细和具体的核安全文化评估指标体系。另外,为克服专家判断带来的不足,基于Z-number方法建立核安全文化评价技术,考虑了指标评估的复杂性、模糊性和不确定性,使评价结果更为客观真实。建立的核安全文化评估指标体系和评估方法对于加强核电厂人因失误管理、核安全文化建设以及提升核电厂的安全水平提供了理论支持。     

美俄核裁军协议及其对中国的影响

近年来,核不扩散机制饱受冲击,印巴核试验、朝核危机、伊核问题虽然是直接原因,美俄各自部署、存储大量核武器也难逃干系。2009年4月,美俄重启战略武器谈判,经过近一年的谈判,于2010年4月8日签署新协议。美俄达成新的裁军协定具有多重背景,它既与美俄旧版裁军条约的到期有关,也与奥巴马政府在核裁军问题上态度的转变相关,还与《不扩散核武器条约》审议大会的召开,以及解决伊朗核问题等有关。条约的签订既可推动停滞不前的核裁军进程,又对于严重受损的核不扩散机制产生积极影响。鉴于美俄核裁军协议的有限性,以及美俄在条约扩展至所有核国家上的共识,条约的签署也会对中国产生一定影响。