Perceived Risks from Radiation and Nuclear Testing Near Semipalatinsk, Kazakhstan: A Comparison Between Physicians, Scientists, and the Public

Determining the difference in perception of risk between experts, or more educated professionals, and laypeople is important so that a potential hazard can be effectively communicated to the public. Many surveys have been conducted to better understand the difference between expert and public opinions, and often laypeople exhibit higher perceptions of risk to hazards in comparison to experts. This is especially true when health risk is due to radiation, nuclear power, and nuclear waste. This article focuses on one section of a risk perception survey given to two groups of individuals with a more specialized education (scientists and physicians) and laypeople (villagers) in the Semipalatinsk region of Kazakhstan. All of these groups live near the former Soviet nuclear test site. Originally, it was expected that the scientists and physicians would have similar perceptions of radiation risk, while the public perceptions would be higher, but this was not always the case. For example, when perceptions of risk pertain to the health impacts of nuclear testing or the dose-response nature of radiation exposure, the physicians tend to agree with the laypeople, not the scientists. The villagers are always the most risk-averse group, followed by the physicians and then the scientists. These differences are likely due to different frames of reference for each of the populations.     

中国核电站供应链及其风险研究

基于核燃料和设备的核电站供应链体系是实现核电站连续生产运行的基本保障,因核电站生命周期较长,随着核电企业运行时间的延续,四大核电供应链面临的矛盾,以及核电站上游环节供应链的诸多变化,如供应商倒闭、供应商价格锁定、设备和备件更新换代无法实现直接维修更换等,带来了众多的核电站供应链的风险。核电站要建立一套完善的主动供应链风险管理流程,以识别、分析、定义和规避供应链风险,确保核电站连续高效、安全运行目标的实现。     

Analysis of the Treatment, by the U.S. Department of Energy, of the FEP Hydrothermal Activity in the Yucca Mountain Performance Assessment

The U.S. Code of Federal Regulations, 10 CFR Part 63, stipulates that the expected performance of the geological high-level nuclear waste repository must be demonstrated through a total system performance assessment (TSPA). The TSPA represents an analysis that identifies all features, events, and processes (FEPs) that might affect the disposal system and examines the effects of the identified FEPs upon the performance of the system. Secondary minerals from the thick unsaturated zone of Yucca Mountain were deposited from waters with temperatures up to 70-90 degrees C. U-Pb dating constrained the ages of the elevated temperatures to the period between 10 and 5-6 million years ago. Relatively youthful circulation of thermal waters (hydrothermal activity) would be of concern for the safety of the disposal facility. A phenomenological model was advanced by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), which proposed that the minerals were deposited by infiltrating meteoric waters that were heated upon contact with the bedrock; it was hypothesized that the latter was conductively heated by a shallow silicic magma body. The model rendered processes responsible for elevated water temperatures inconsequential for the safety of the proposed nuclear waste facility. However, attempts by DOE at validating the model by means of numeric thermal simulations and analogue system observations were unsuccessful. Regulations specify two criteria for exclusion of a FEP from consideration in the TSPA: low probability and low consequence. The lack of a plausible phenomenological model makes it impossible to apply either of these two criteria to the FEP Hydrothermal Activity. Despite the lack of a valid criterion for exclusion, it was excluded from the TSPA. Both the development of DOE's thermal model and the formal FEP analysis were associated with deviations from DOE's quality assurance regulations.     

核事故早期应急群决策模型研究

有效快速的核事故早期应急决策,是核电站发生核事故后最后一道必要的屏障,因此决策的快速性与有效性至关重要。文章先构造效用函数,求出决策者的乐观系数,将决策判断矩阵中的区间值与模糊值精确化;在此基础上建立了个体与群体的决策模型,以提高决策的有效性。同时根据排序结果,构造群体与个体之间一致性判断矩阵,并根据判断矩阵进行交互与修改,使专家内部快速达成一致。最后通过算例说明方法的可行性。     

组织弹性研究的现状和趋势

福岛核事故表明,组织安全需定位于组织本身的应对事故和风险的能力,即组织的弹性。文章在文献研究的基础上,研究了组织管理安全研究的发展过程,对近年来国外关于组织弹性的研究现状进行了介绍,包括弹性的定义、组织弹性的结构和部分测量方法。最后对研究现状进行评价并且指出未来的研究方向。     

试析近年来朝鲜半岛核问题的演化以及中国的作为

近几年来,朝鲜半岛无核化进程出现严重逆转,六方会谈一直陷入沉寂.半岛核问题恶化的一个主要原因是朝鲜国内的权力过渡引发了各方政策关注点的再调整.朝鲜的核能力在过去几年里取得了一些重大进展,加深了国际社会的忧虑.为了推动六方会谈重启,中国做出了种种努力,但要成功实现早日复谈,仍需要美朝展示灵活性,发挥主动性,彼此合作并与其他各方共同努力,使半岛核问题重新驶回正确的轨道.     

How Much Internalization of Nuclear Risk Through Liability Insurance?

An important source of conflict surrounding nuclear energy is that with a very small probability, a large-scale nuclear accident may occur. One way to internalize the associated financial risks is through mandating nuclear operators to have liability insurance. This paper presents estimates of consumers' willingness to pay for increased financial security provided by an extension of coverage, based on the 'stated choice' approach. A Swiss citizen with median characteristics may be willing to pay 0.14 US cents per kwh to increase coverage beyond the current CHF 0.7 billion (bn.) (US$ 0.47 bn.). Marginal willingness to pay declines with higher coverage but exceeds marginal cost at least up to CHF 4 bn.(US$ 2.7 bn.). An extension of nuclear liability insurance coverage therefore may be efficiency-enhancing.     

核电企业核安全文化主动涵化评价方法的研究

核安全文化是核电企业文化的重要组成部分,文章主要结合我国《核安全文化政策声明》中的要求研究核安全文化的主动涵化过程,并分析核安全文化的主要特征,提出核安全文化主动涵化评价指标和评价方法(ZXW法),这对核电企业的核安全文化建设具有一定的指导作用。     

核威慑的伦理问题域及其表现分析

核威慑问题涉及军事、政治、国际关系、科技、经济、文化、法律等领域,是一个极为敏感又牵涉面广且同人类的和平、安全、幸福以及身家性命密切关联的问题丛。核威慑关乎生命价值和尊严问题,关涉政治权利的正当性问题、传统战争伦理规范的适应性问题、工具理性与价值理性的冲突问题,涉及主权、人权与国际正义的困境问题。核威慑的伦理问题错综复杂且牵涉面广,人类迫切需要发展核威慑伦理理论,提升自身对核武器的实践理性能力。     

大力发展湖南省核能产业

核能产业是湖南省重点发展的战略性新兴产业,大力发展核能产业,对改善我省能源结构、加快产业结构升级、促进“四化两型”社会建设有着重要的意义。从国内外核能产业发展来看内陆核电比例占60％以上,我国核电建设突飞猛进;湖南省为经济大省,又是核工业大省,具有核电基础优势和安全的地质条件。因此,应整合优势资源,打造国家级核能产业园;支持内陆核电项目重启,增强新型工业化的推动力;促进核能产业全面发展,提升核工业大省地位;加大人才培养投入,构建核专业人才培养体系;大力宣传核电科普知识,加强核安全与公众的沟通等以加快湖南省核能产业发展。