浅谈核科普公众沟通现状及破局对策

由于核的特殊性,加上公众普遍缺乏核相关知识,涉核项目的风险被放大,“邻避效应”更加剧了公众谈“核”色变的心理。我国核科普公众沟通存在顶层设计不足、方式单一、对象定位模糊、吸引力不强等问题。因而,做好顶层设计,推动法规制度建设;落实企业社会责任,提高公众可接受度;注意科普的精准沟通;关注核心理建设;加强核科普队伍建设。     

Risk–Risk Tradeoff Analysis of Nuclear Explosives for Asteroid Deflection

To prevent catastrophic asteroid–Earth collisions, it has been proposed to use nuclear explosives to deflect away earthbound asteroids. However, this policy of nuclear deflection could inadvertently increase the risk of nuclear war and other violent conflict. This article conducts risk–risk tradeoff analysis to assess whether nuclear deflection results in a net increase or decrease in risk. Assuming nonnuclear deflection options are also used, nuclear deflection may only be needed for the largest and most imminent asteroid collisions. These are low‐frequency, high‐severity events. The effect of nuclear deflection on violent conflict risk is more ambiguous due to the complex and dynamic social factors at play. Indeed, it is not clear whether nuclear deflection would cause a net increase or decrease in violent conflict risk. Similarly, this article cannot reach a precise conclusion on the overall risk–risk tradeoff. The value of this article comes less from specific quantitative conclusions and more from providing an analytical framework and a better overall understanding of the policy decision. The article demonstrates the importance of integrated analysis of global risks and the policies to address them, as well as the challenge of quantitative evaluation of complex social processes such as violent conflict.     

20世纪中期英国双轨核政策的困境--以取消“蓝光”导弹项目为中心的考察

二战后英国一直奉行双轨核政策，即坚持发展本国独立核威慑力量与保持对美国的核依赖并举，但1960年英国取消“蓝光”导弹项目是英国双轨核政策陷入困境的临界点。英国双轨核政策面临本土核威慑力量的规模、独立核威慑力量的存在价值以及在野党和民众对核政策的质疑和对抗等问题。正是英国双轨核政策内在矛盾的激化与美英核“依存”关系的不对称与不对等导致英国核政策走向失衡。面对此，麦克米伦政府依然选择沿袭双轨核政策，其主要原因是：继续与美国进行核合作可以节省英国的核研发成本，密切美英特殊关系；继续保持一定程度的独立核威慑，可使英国避免成为美国的“卫星国”，并有利于加强其与欧洲的关系，为欧洲防务作出自己的贡献。     

Bridging the Gap between Social Acceptance and Ethical Acceptability

New technology brings great benefits, but it can also create new and significant risks. When evaluating those risks in policymaking, there is a tendency to focus on social acceptance. By solely focusing on social acceptance, we could, however, overlook important ethical aspects of technological risk, particularly when we evaluate technologies with transnational and intergenerational risks. I argue that good governance of risky technology requires analyzing both social acceptance and ethical acceptability. Conceptually, these two notions are mostly complementary. Social acceptance studies are not capable of sufficiently capturing all the morally relevant features of risky technologies; ethical analyses do not typically include stakeholders’ opinions, and they therefore lack the relevant empirical input for a thorough ethical evaluation. Only when carried out in conjunction are these two types of analysis relevant to national and international governance of risky technology. I discuss the Rawlsian wide reflective equilibrium as a method for marrying social acceptance and ethical acceptability. Although the rationale of my argument is broadly applicable, I will examine the case of multinational nuclear waste repositories in particular. This example will show how ethical issues may be overlooked if we focus only on social acceptance, and will provide a test case for demonstrating how the wide reflective equilibrium can help to bridge the proverbial acceptance‐acceptability gap.     

Family characteristics of children in cases of alleged abuse and neglect

Information is presented about the family composition, structure and significant relationships of 2069 children referred to an English social services department for suspected abuse and neglect. Of these children, 373 (18%) were subsequently placed on the child abuse register. Very few members of extended families were recorded as being significant in the lives of these children. Contrary to earlier research, less than one‐third of children lived with a lone or unmarried mother. However, children whose parents were married and living together were less likely to be registered. Nearly half of the mothers and one‐fifth of the fathers of registered children were aged 21 or less at their child's birth. Compared to all those referred, a significantly larger number of children registered were conceived by younger or older men. Two in five of the siblings of registered children were under 6, and the younger the siblings, the more likely the child was to be registered. Children with two or more siblings were also more likely to be registered. Copyright © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

班组情景意识测量实验方法的比较分析

为了对班组情景意识测量方法的优劣进行全面分析和评价,文章着重对四种主要的班组情景意识测量方法进行简要介绍,方法包括CAST班组协调情景意识、SACRI控制室情景意识调查表、CARS班组情景意识评价量表和TSAGAT班组情景意识整体评估技术。同时进一步从方法本身、方法测量过程与结果等方面设置多个评价标准,对12个班组情景意识测量方法进行评价。结果表明12种测量方法各具特色,但通过建立的评价标准可对方法进行优劣识别,便于实验设置人员根据测量需求、实验环境等实际情况选择合适的测量方法或组合实验,为开发新的核电厂班组情景意识测量方法提供思路与建议。     

两次台海危机时期美国对华核态度初探（1954-1958年）

20世纪50年代发生了两次台海危机,也就在这个时期,美国第二次和第三次公开宣布对华使用核武器。通过对两次台海危机中美国对华核态度的探讨,指出制止中美核危机爆发的途径。     

供应商核损害赔偿责任豁免的反思与重构

基于保护受害人和促进核工业发展的考虑,豁免供应商对第三方的核损害赔偿责任成为国际惯例。但在实践中,责任豁免的范围被扩大到因供应商过错造成的核事故对营运人的损害。笔者认为,供应商核损害赔偿责任的绝对豁免不仅造成供应商与营运人权利义务的绝对失衡,有违公平公正,而且不利于敦促供应商加强质量管理与监督,从源头上防范核事故的发生。文章进而对供应商核损害赔偿责任进行了从绝对豁免到相对豁免的重构,建议明确规定供应商对因其原因造成核事故引起的核设施本身及营运人其他现场财产的损害承担赔偿责任,细化责任的实现途径。同时,借鉴各国在食品、药品等特殊领域废除适用发展风险抗辩的做法,要求核材料、核产品供应商承担产品发展风险责任。     

用于温差能海水淡化的新型闪蒸冷凝一体化装置

利用可再生能源进行海水淡化是目前国内外的发展趋势,为此,提出了基于海洋温差能的海水淡化技术。针对海洋温差能海水淡化工艺温差小、压降低的特点,研制了一种新型的闪蒸冷凝一体化装置,并对其结构形式、工艺参数和设备参数进行了详细的设计和计算分析。经实际系统运行和实测表明,该装置具有结构紧凑、效率高和阻力损失小等优点,对于降低海水淡化单位能耗和成本具有重要的应用价值。     

基于计划行为理论的核电接受度模型研究

核电技术作为一种争议性的技术,具有利益和风险并存的特点,因此,核电技术的顺利发展需要以民众的接受度为基础,并且对计划行为理论(TPB)进行改造,对核电接受度模型进行研究是很有必要的.研究表明:信任度、主观规范和感知行为控制对行为意愿的影响都很显著,其中信任度的影响度最高.民众对核电技术的利益感知和风险感知均能显著影响民众的信任度和行为意愿,但对于风险的谨慎要远胜于其对于利益的期望.