小布什政府的核不扩散政策与国际核不扩散的未来

当今社会防止核武器的扩散是国际社会面临的重要问题。美国作为世界最先拥有核武器的国家,其核不扩散政策牵动着国际社会核不扩散的神经。一直以来,美国的核不扩散政策为国际核不扩散机制的建立做出了巨大的贡献。然而,2001年小布什上台后,小布什政府的核不扩散政策较之前任发生了大的逆转,更依赖于单边反扩散行动来防止核武器的扩散,而这对国际社会防扩散努力制造了新的障碍。     

论核事故跨境损害的赔偿责任主体

核能的开发利用一方面给各国带来巨大助益,但另一方面也潜藏着各种事故风险。核事故不仅会产生境内损害,严重时还会发生跨境损害。核事故损害赔偿的责任主体首先在于核设施的运营者,而国家只是辅助补充责任主体。但是,由于国家承担了对核事故的预防应对职责,所以,在未能尽到预防应对职责时,国家应当就其过错行为单独承担损害赔偿责任。     

国内核电公众沟通研究热点及发展趋势——基于CiteSpace的知识图谱分析

文章以中国学术期刊网络出版总库(CNKI)2000—2021年发表的396篇核电公众沟通相关文献为基础,运用CiteSpace5.7R1软件,进行发文量统计、合作共现、关键词聚类、突现词探测等分析,揭示出国内核电公众沟通研究主要聚焦核电政策宣贯与技术知识普及、核电公众沟通与接受机理两大主题,沟通重心由“核事故处置”向“核应急预防”转变,沟通思路由“单向宣传”向“双向互动”转变并朝“构建核安全共同体”迈进。同时发现,国内核电公众沟通研究仍属小众领域,与我国从核大国迈向核强国的现实需求不相称,亟待更多学者广泛参与,推动学科交叉融合,增强研究系统性,提升学术影响力。     

The Future of Nuclear Power: Value Orientations and Risk Perception

Since the turn of the 21st century, there has been a revival of interest in nuclear power. Two decades ago, the expansion of nuclear power in the United States was halted by widespread public opposition as well as rising costs and less than projected increases in demand for electricity. Can the renewed enthusiasm for nuclear power overcome its history of public resistance that has persisted for decades? We propose that attitudes toward nuclear power are a function of perceived risk, and that both attitudes and risk perceptions are a function of values, beliefs, and trust in the institutions that influence nuclear policy. Applying structural equation models to data from a U.S. national survey, we find that increased trust in the nuclear governance institutions reduces perceived risk of nuclear power and together higher trust and lower risk perceptions predict positive attitudes toward nuclear power. Trust in environmental institutions and perceived risks from global environmental problems do not predict attitudes toward nuclear power. Values do predict attitudes: individuals with traditional values have greater support for, while those with altruistic values have greater opposition to, nuclear power. Nuclear attitudes do not vary by gender, age, education, income, or political orientation, though nonwhites are more supportive than whites. These findings are consistent with, and provide an explanation for, a long series of public opinion polls showing public ambivalence toward nuclear power that persists even in the face of renewed interest for nuclear power in policy circles.     

核安保事件应急决策的情景库构建与情景匹配研究

纵观国际社会形势,核扩散风险、核恐怖主义威胁对全球核电发展带来诸多挑战,加强核安保事件应急决策研究至关重要。根据突发事件的情景—应对的相关理论,文章从内因、外因以及应急决策三个维度对核安保事件进行情景切分和关键因素提取,提出了核安保事件情景库的结构和构建过程,并提出了核安保事件案例库索引和基于最近相邻法的核安保事件情景相似度计算方法对核安保事件与情景库进行情景匹配。文章运用的情景库和情景匹配方法可以简练、准确地表达核安保事件应急决策的信息和实现快速的情景匹配,可为核安保事件的应急决策提供重要的支持。     

核供热堆压力壳组合阀接管热应力的有限元分析

运用非线性有限单元法对２００ ＭＷ 核供热堆压力壳组合阀接管的热应力进行了研究和数值计算，得到了压力壳组合阀接管的热应力分布情况，为核供热堆压力壳组合阀接管的强度校核提供了依据。     

习近平对中国共产党核安全理论的创新发展及其意义

中国共产党核安全理论具有与时俱进的理论品质,先后经历了形成期、深化期和成熟期三个历史阶段。习近平在继承毛泽东、邓小平、江泽民、胡锦涛等几代中央领导人核安全思想的基础上,对中国共产党核安全理论进行了重大的创新和发展,主要体现为“四个首次提出”:一是首次提出中国核安全观,强化了中国共产党核安全理论的系统性；二是首次提出将核安全纳入国家总体安全体系,彰显了中国共产党核安全理论的人民性；三是首次提出核安全领域的四大关系及其处理方法,突出了中国共产党核安全理论的科学性；四是首次提出打造核安全命运共同体,显示了中国共产党核安全理论的世界性。习近平对中国共产党核安全理论的创新发展具有重要的时代意义,表现在推进马克思主义安全观中国化、时代化,指导新时代我国核能事业安全高效发展,引领全球核安全治理正确方向等方面。     

A dynamic Bayesian network-based emergency decision-making framework highlighting emergency propagations: Illustrated using the Fukushima nuclear accidents and the Covid-19 pandemic

When facing public emergencies, human societies need to make decisions rapidly in order to mitigate the problems. However, this process can be difficult due to complexity of the emergency scenarios and lack of systematic methods for analyzing them. In the work reported here, we develop a framework based upon dynamic Bayesian networks in order to simulate emergency scenarios and support corresponding decisions. In this framework, we highlight the importance of emergency propagation, which is a critical factor often ignored by decisionmakers. We illustrate that failure of considering emergency propagation can lead to suboptimal mitigation strategies. By incorporating this critical factor, our framework enables decisionmakers to identify optimal response strategies minimizing emergency impacts. Scenarios developed from two public emergencies: the 2011 Fukushima nuclear power plant accidents and the Covid-19 pandemic, are utilized to illustrate the framework in this paper. Capabilities of the framework in supporting decision making in both events illustrate its generality and adaptability when dealing with complex real-world situations. Our analysis results reveal many similarities between these two seemingly distinct events. This indicates that seemingly unrelated emergencies can share many common features beyond their idiosyncratic characteristics. Valuable mitigation insights can be obtained by analyzing a broad range of past emergencies systematically.     

核威慑机理:实力基础、信号传递和心理博弈

基辛格提出了威慑分析框架,认为威慑需要实力、使用实力的意志以及潜在的进攻者对这两方面因素的综合评估等三方面因素的结合,但他没有对这一分析框架进行深入分析。本文跳出从战略稳定性角度分析核威慑的传统思路,把认知和心理因素植入核威慑分析之中,对基辛格建构的威慑分析框架进行了细化,并将其用于核威慑分析,把威慑的三个构成要素置换为核实力基础、核威慑信号传递和核威慑心理博弈三个变量,把核威慑界定为在核力量基础上通过信号传递进行的心理博弈。影响核武器数量规模的因素分为国家政策因素、确定一国核武器数量的直接依据、国家资源约束和国际环境的影响。核威慑信号传递包括口头信号传递、书面信号传递、捆绑信号传递和行动信号传递四种方式,每一种传递方式各有其传递路径。在核威慑心理博弈部分,分析了对核威慑正确认知的形成机制,并在此基础上分析了核力量平衡国家间的核威慑心理博弈、核力量悬殊国家间的核威慑心理博弈和导弹防御系统对核威慑心理博弈的影响。分析核威慑中核力量与使用核力量意志的关系、描述核威慑过程中信号传递的方式与路径和威慑与被威慑双方的心理博弈过程,对于分析核威慑有效性、维持大国间战略稳定性,具有一定的理论价值和现实意义。     

Island refuges for surviving nuclear winter and other abrupt sunlight-reducing catastrophes

Some island nations in the Southern Hemisphere might survive a severe sun-reducing catastrophe such as nuclear winter and be well placed to help reboot-collapsed human civilization. Such islands must be resilient to the cascading effects abrupt sunlight reduction scenarios (ASRS) would impose beyond the impacts on agricultural systems. We aimed to identify island nations whose societies are most likely to survive nuclear winter or other ASRS. We also aimed to conduct a case study of one island nation to consider how it might enhance its resilience and therefore its chance of aiding a global reboot of complex technological society. We performed a threshold analysis on food self-sufficiency under severe nuclear winter conditions to identify islands. We then profiled each island across global macroindices representing resilience factors reported in the literature. We undertook a case study of the island nation of New Zealand. The island nations of Australia, New Zealand, Iceland, the Solomon Islands, and Vanuatu appear most resilient to ASRS. However, our case-study island nation of New Zealand is threatened in scenarios of no/low trade, has precarious aspects of its energy supply, and shortcomings in manufacturing of essential components. Therefore, inadequate preparations and critical failures in these systems could see rapid societal breakdown. Despite some islands’ favorable baseline conditions and apparent food security even in a severe ASRS, cascading impacts through other socioecological systems threaten complex functioning. We identified specific resilience measures, many with cobenefits, which may protect island nodes of sustained complexity in ASRS.