我国核电技术创新中的政企协调度实证分析

为探究我国核电技术创新中政府和企业的协调情况,文章基于协同学理论和复杂系统理论,从核电技术创新的特点出发,将核电技术创新系统解构为政府子系统和企业子系统,采用2007年—2017年相关数据,运用协调度测度模型对政府子系统有序度、企业子系统有序度和政企协调度进行测度和分析。研究结果显示:我国核电技术创新中政企协调度随时间呈现“N”型变化趋势,且协调度均值较低;政府子系统有序度和企业子系统有序度表现为“双螺旋”协调演进;制约政府子系统有序度和企业子系统有序度提升的关键因素分别为税收优惠力度和企业R&D强度。     

Bad News Has Wings: Dread Risk Mediates Social Amplification in Risk Communication

Social diffusion of information amplifies risk through processes of birth, death, and distortion of message content. Dread risk—involving uncontrollable, fatal, involuntary, and catastrophic outcomes (e.g., terrorist attacks and nuclear accidents)—may be particularly susceptible to amplification because of the psychological biases inherent in dread risk avoidance. To test this, initially balanced information about high or low dread topics was given to a set of individuals who then communicated this information through diffusion chains, each person passing a message to the next. A subset of these chains were also reexposed to the original information. We measured prior knowledge, perceived risk before and after transmission, and, at each link, number of positive and negative statements. Results showed that the more a message was transmitted the more negative statements it contained. This was highest for the high dread topic. Increased perceived risk and production of negative messages was closely related to the amount of negative information that was received, with domain knowledge mitigating this effect. Reexposure to the initial information was ineffectual in reducing bias, demonstrating the enhanced danger of socially transmitted information.     

Making sense of nuclear war: narratives of voluntary civil defence and the memory of Britain’s Cold War

In interviews with members of Britain’s Civil Defence Services, experiences of Cold War voluntarism are recalled in different ways. Some remembered their desire to help defend their nation and local community. Others remembered making a leisure choice that had little connection to the potential nuclear war the organization was ostensibly preparing for. No one provided a well-developed account of civil defence’s ability to provide a defence against the effects of a nuclear war. Popular memory theorists suggest cultural discourse limits the ability of individuals to narrate stories that do not align with culturally valued frameworks: in this case, dominant understandings of civil defence as at best ridiculous or at worst dangerous were established in the 1980s. This article argues that memories of civil defence voluntarism in the 1950-60s have been shaped by these discourses, but that individuals were able to express the different meanings civil defence had in their lives in ways that provide a more nuanced and holistic picture of the intersections of leisure, service and sociability that made up civil defence. As such, it argues that oral history allows us to understand the various ‘horizons of possibility’ that made up individual experiences of the Cold War.     

Assessing the Performance of a Classification‐Based Vulnerability Analysis Model

In this article, a classification model based on the majority rule sorting (MR‐Sort) method is employed to evaluate the vulnerability of safety‐critical systems with respect to malevolent intentional acts. The model is built on the basis of a (limited‐size) set of data representing (a priori known) vulnerability classification examples. The empirical construction of the classification model introduces a source of uncertainty into the vulnerability analysis process: a quantitative assessment of the performance of the classification model (in terms of accuracy and confidence in the assignments) is thus in order. Three different app oaches are here considered to this aim: (i) a model–retrieval‐based approach, (ii) the bootstrap method, and (iii) the leave‐one‐out cross‐validation technique. The analyses are presented with reference to an exemplificative case study involving the vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants.     

重思邻避困境的风险沟通与治理问题:基于核电的讨论

如何赢得民意和社会许可已经是目前国内核电风险设施选址过程中的主要障碍。而要破解该难题,我们既需要在微观层面针对潜在风险承担者的利益补偿,针对风险感知差异之重点群体开展理性沟通和共识协商,同时也更需要宏观层面的制度建设,通过制度化措施来缓解社会不信任,将我国在环评和社会稳评等风险沟通领域的相关制度安排落实为具体实践,并突破结构性障碍,在风险协商治理方面创新政治过程和制度,以制度的确定性来适应,甚至控制技术风险的不确定性。     

论核安保文化及其发展趋势

核安保文化是核安保在实践中产生的新理念。文章对核安保的概念、提出核安保组织文化的基础进行分析,并介绍了核安保文化的双层架构,分别是自上而下的核安保文化的推行机制及组织内从下而上的核安保文化的金字塔概念模型。随后,简单分析了核安保文化在组织中对核安保行为的作用机制,并对未来的研究提出建议。     

农村家庭伦理价值与代际关系的权变——基于苏北渔村四代同堂家庭的个案调查

家庭作为社会的基本单位,在城市化浪潮和市场化竞争中有其自身的适应逻辑。农村四代同堂家庭虽具传统大家庭同居共食之形,但其价值伦理已经发生权变。即家庭内部以核心小家庭为中心,通过分财独立和空间区隔保持代际成员之间的自主性;代际之间以子代核心小家庭为重心进行资源倾斜,形成亲子关系倒置的理性化关系格局。面对城市化压力和市场化竞争,农村四代同堂家庭在既相互独立又相互依赖的代际分工中形成情利一体的伦理共同体,究其本质是以核心小家庭辐射大家庭的代际关系实践,体现了农村家庭积极理性化的权变策略。     

朝鲜核危机与东北亚安全

朝鲜核问题是东北亚地区最不安全的重要因素之一。矛盾双方一边是拥有数千枚核弹头的超级大国美国,一边是正在研制核武器的小国朝鲜。美国希望朝鲜完全放弃核计划,冻结核设施并最终拆除核设施。而朝鲜则要求美国与其签订《互不侵犯条约》,以确保朝鲜安全并建立两国间大使级外交关系。北京六方会谈为实现朝美两国各自的目标提供了外交平台,和平化解朝核危机将给东北亚地区和整个世界带来安全与稳定。     

和而不同、殊途同归——沈从文与“战国派”的来龙去脉

依据文献资料,从参与编辑、发表文章、团体活动、文化主张等多方面看,沈从文毫无疑问是《战国策》同人和"战国派"核心成员之一。爱国情怀、忧患意识与公共意识,是作为现代知识分子的"战国派"诸人办刊立言的根本动因,其中沈从文对文学本身和文学运动的观念、立场的阐述和批评,及其对五四的个性思想与启蒙精神的宣扬,构成了该派之重要一极,这也表明"战国派"只是以个人立场为原则,以刊物为公共话语空间,以学院知识分子为主体的自由作者群体,而并非整齐划一的团体或派别。     

产业集聚对中国农业净碳效应的影响研究

利用空间计量方法分析我国产业集聚对农业净碳效应的影响及其空间溢出效应,结果表明：2018年我国各省区农业净碳效应存在明显差异且两极分化严重;与2000年相比,各地农业净碳效应已出现均衡化趋势,整体梯度差异逐渐趋于收敛,高值省份数量增加且变化较大,低值省域数量减少且变化不大。产业集聚与农业净碳效应均存在空间自相关性,二者之间呈现“正N”型关系,即随着农业产业集聚程度的不断提升,农业净碳效应表现出“先增、后减、再增”的三阶段变化特征;从实际影响来看,区域内产业集聚度每提升1个百分点可促使农业净碳效应量增加1.621%;除此之外,农业公共投资、农业产业结构、区域经济发展水平等变量也表现出了一定的正向效应但作用力度要明显偏弱。产业集聚对农业净碳效应具有显著的溢出效应,并表现为区域间溢出和区域内溢出。具体而言,邻近地区产业集聚度每提升1%可促使本地农业净碳效应增加2.286%,而本地产业集聚对邻近地区产生影响后因受反馈作用自身农业净碳效应还会额外增加0.060%。