Social Networks of Old People in India

Summary

This article presents a comparative analysis of the available research on the social networks of older persons in India. Most of this research has been done in North Indian cities. The research foci of the available studies include network size, core networks and beyond, life course changes in networks, impacts of residency in old-age homes, gender differences, and joint and nuclear family residence. This research is discussed in terms of its policy implications. Because the research demonstrates that social networks are important for the welfare of older Indians, one can conclude that social policy that encourages the maintenance of robust networks throughout the life course may be worth pursuing. One aspect of policy is discussed. The analysis of the relationship between social network and gender suggests that current policies that can be seen as supporting gender inequality in terms of property may have a negative impact on the networks of older women.     

Analytic Bayesian Solution of the Two-Stage Poisson-Type Problem in Probabilistic Risk Analysis

The basic purpose of probabilistic risk analysis is to make inferences about the probabilities of various postulated events, with an account of all relevant information such as prior knowledge and operating experience with the specific system under study, as well as experience with other similar systems. Estimation of the failure rate of a Poisson-type system leads to an especially simple Bayesian solution in closed form if the prior probability implied by the invariance properties of the problem is properly taken into account. This basic simplicity persists if a more realistic prior, representing order of magnitude knowledge of the rate parameter, is employed instead. Moreover, the more realistic prior allows direct incorporation of experience gained from other similar systems, without need to postulate a statistical model for an underlying ensemble. The analytic formalism is applied to actual nuclear reactor data.     

The Health Impact of Major Nuclear Accidents: The Case Of Greece

An assessment of the radiological consequences that would result for the population of Greece from postulated major nuclear accidents in the Kozloduy nuclear power station in Bulgaria is performed. Kozloduy lies at a distance of 225 km from the northern borders of Greece and contains six reactors, all of the Russian WWER type. The postulated accidents that are classified as level 7 accidents on the International Nuclear Event Scale, involve significant releases of radioactive materials into the environment, and widespread health and environmental effects. The analysis is performed by the MACCS code. The estimated consequences are compared to the corresponding actual impact of the Chernobyl accident in Greece. The results of the analysis indicate that, under the conservative assumptions adopted, the radiological consequences of the most severe accidents considered would be about 1.5 orders of magnitude larger than the actual radiological consequences of the Chernobyl accident.     

企业创新与核心能力

创新是企业经营要素的新组合。企业核心能力是企业发展能力中最重要的能力,它源于企业创新。企业创新点,实质在企业价值链的"链环"上,企业核心能力的形成,关键在于建立价值链某个环节上的竞争优势,企业应当通过创新培育核心能力体系。     

Nuclear Plant PRA: How Far Has It Come?

Nearly ten years have passed since the publication in August 1974 of the draft Reactor Safety Study (WASH 1400), the first detailed attempt to apply probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to estimate the public risks posed by commercial nuclear power plants. Now is an opportune time to look back and see how PRA has fared over these ten years. We will not attempt to pass judgement on how the Reactor Safety Study report itself has withstood the test of time, as that task is best left to others less directly involved in preparing the report. Instead, we will examine advances in the understanding, acceptance, and utilization of PRA techniques, as well as technical advances in PRA methods. Some of the significant insights gained from PRAs will be discussed. Finally, some observations on the future of PRA will be offered.     

Perceived Risk and Uncertainty of Nuclear Waste: Differences Among Science,Business, and Environmental Group Members1

This paper presents survey results on perceived risk regarding the management of nuclear waste. Using data taken from random mail surveys of members of scientific, business, and environmental groups in Colorado and New Mexico in the summer of 1990, we examine differences between the groups in their expressed perceptions of risk and also their assessments of the certainty of their beliefs. We consider whether (a) greater uncertainty is associated with greater perceived risks and (b) whether there is greater responsiveness to new information for those whose beliefs are least certain. We find that there are connections between perceived risk and uncertainty, and there is a greater tendency to update risk assessements from a position of greater initial uncertainty. There are, however, differences between the groups as well as asymmetries in their responses to new information. The latter suggests that perceived risks will ratchet upward over time even when information is not biased toward more or less risk.     

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Safety Goal Policy: A Critical Review

The most recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) statement of safety goal policy is a significant advance over previous versions. However, some areas of the policy are still in need of refinement, and the resolution of several key questions was deferred pending further review. To clarify some of these issues, this paper presents a critical review of the NRC safety goal policy to date.     

Perceived Risks of Radioactive Waste Transport Through Oregon: Results of a Statewide Survey

Transportation of hazardous materials, and particularly radioactive wastes, on public highways has become an important risk management issue. The unfavorability of public attitudes regarding hazardous and nuclear wastes signals the potential for strong public opposition to programs for transporting these materials. This paper presents the results of a survey conducted to assess public reactions to a long-term nuclear waste transport program planned to follow a route through a portion of rural Oregon. The survey assessed a number of key risk perception issues, including perceived health and safety risks of nuclear waste transport, relative risks of transport vs. storage at an existing site, trust in state officials, and satisfaction with life in communities along the transport route. The survey identified a number of attitudes and concerns that need to be understood and considered by those in charge of designing and implementing the waste-transportation program.     

我国核电“走出去”技术外溢及风险研究——基于系统安全工程能力成熟度模型

我国核电面临“走出去”的机遇,但海外投资过程防范优势技术外溢的具体方法却缺乏理论指导。文章根据核电“走出去”合作模式分析了技术外溢的渠道,借鉴系统安全工程能力成熟度模型,对技术外溢过程的威胁、系统脆弱性及影响信息进行识别与评估、构建工程过程风险信息表,用于指导我国核电“走出去”技术外溢的防范方案,并以巴基斯坦恰希玛核电站2号机组为例进行了举例分析。该方法能为我国核电“走出去”的政府决策提供一些参考。     

构建核心竞争力:中国企业适应未来全球化竞争的必然选择

经济全球化带来了全球范围内日益激烈的市场竞争,如何应对这种新的变化,是包括中国企业在内的各国企业都必须认真解答的重要命题.本文主要从构建企业核心竞争力的角度,系统阐述了中国企业参与全球化竞争,建立自身竞争优势的可能途径.