国际核危机解析:概念、根源与演变

国际核危机作为冷战后国际安全领域内最突出的难题之一,亟需对它本身以及所引发的问题作出解释和回答。这有赖于对国际核危机有深刻的了解和认识,更需要在理论上探讨,国际核危机究竟是什么,有哪些属性特征,引起核危机的原因是什么,国际核危机演变有什么规律等。搞清楚了这些问题,才能深刻理解和认识国际核危机,掌握它的活动规律,进而研究如何去应对和管理国际核危机。国际核危机是一种涉及核武器因素的破坏国际稳定、威胁国际安全的恶性状态,从国际体系结构和国家互动进程两个层次分析国际核危机的根源,可以洞察核危机的演变过程。     

AN EXPERT SYSTEM APPLICATION FOR DECISION SUPPORT IN LAW ENFORCEMENT

Expert systems offer promise for decision-making support in stressful circumstances such as those that occur when law enforcement officials respond to hostage-taking incidents. These are life-or-death situations in which the costs of decision error are enormous. This paper reports on an expert system being developed and tested to aid police decision makers in hostage-taking incidents. Knowledge is represented by rules embedded in an incident-based decision-tree network. Four different decision makers who have similar but distinct information needs are supported and their efforts are coordinated by the system, which must function in real time as the crisis unfolds. Clear, concise, highly focused dialogue is required at the user interface since frequently only seconds are available in which to make a decision and implement it.     

A MODEL FOR THE PREDICTION OF JUROR DECISIONS*

A logit model approach designed to assign a probability whether prospective jurors will favor the defendant or plaintiff in a case, as a function of perceived individual juror characteristics, is described in the context of a case situation. The model, which has been programmed on a hand-held computer, is designed for implementation in courtroom settings to help defense attorneys evaluate and select jurors in order to minimize the likelihood of large jury awards. Empirical tests of the model are also described.     

Representations of reliability: The rhetoric of political flip-flopping

This study used a qualitative analysis of political flip-flops (N?=?141) to create a typology of rhetorical strategies for politicians who are perceived to have changed positions on political issues. The core purpose of such rhetoric is to achieve a representation of reliability. Politicians who appear to change positions must do so in a way that does not make them seem unreliable to their key stakeholders. Strategies for achieving this goal fall into four primary categories: ignore, deny, justify, and repent. Within each category are more specific tactics, such as evading questions, claiming one was misquoted, arguing one is adapting to new circumstances, or explaining that one has acquired new information about an issue. Using Bitzer’s theory of the rhetorical situation, we argue that certain strategies are more appropriate than others in certain situations. We discuss the practical and ethical implications of these strategies.     

当代视野下的生态哲学实践

人类社会是整个地球生态系统进化发展的产物。由于当今世界高科技发展的负面效应威协着人类的生存和发展;生态系统有规律地制约着人与社会、人与自然、人与人之间的关系;历史车轮驶进工业文明时代,人们为了眼前的利益,掠夺式地开发自然资源,不合理地耕种土地,破坏森林和草原,造成江河污染和水源枯竭,加剧了人与自然的矛盾。解决自然生态与社会生态的矛盾,直接关系到解决“三农”问题,是关系到中国农村和谐发展的根本因素;社会主义的物质文明、政治文明、精神文明,离不开生态文明。没有良好的生态环境,人们就不可能享受高效的物质文明,政治文明和精神文明,这是坚持可持续性生态发展观的要义所在。     

珠三角农业流动人口“代耕农”问题与社会工作干预

＂代耕农＂是珠三角农业流动人口中的特殊弱势群体,对经济社会发展有特殊贡献。＂代耕农＂在与当地社会不断融合和冲突的过程中引发系列社会问题,不仅涉及＂代耕农＂本身利益,还影响当地农村社会稳定。在宏观政策环境短期难以改变的前提下,利用社会工作对＂代耕农＂问题进行干预,是一种行之有效的解决问题的办法。本文从社会工作干预角度,提出破解＂代耕农＂问题的设想。     

文革前“十七年”中国史学的片断反思

文革前"十七年"中国大陆史学发展的状况可分为初期的过渡和后期的发展两段考察.初期史学受外在时势的影响比其他时段更大,各类学术建制的改造和新建受到自上而下的关注,体现了有计划、有组织的新型办事特色.研究者思想和学术的转变明显,但老先生对新方法往往努力学而学不会.那时大多数人惯于思考宏观问题,所谓"五朵金花"就是代表.学科上提倡注重近代史研究,但真正落实经历了一个较长的过程.在今日史学言说中,"十七年"的史学处于一种失语状态,这种学统的中断导致"与国际接轨"的异化.     

试论个案工作教学的三大问题及对策

在实践中发现,个案工作教学存在着理论和模式本土化滞后、任课教师实践经验不足、学生学习积极性有待提高等三大问题。本文根据教学实际和有关调查,提出加强个案工作理论和模式本土化研究;借鉴先进经验,提供任课教师实践平台;端正学生学习个案工作态度,丰富教学方式等对策。     

计划生育综合改革与统筹解决人口问题

结合改革工作实践,探讨了计划生育综合改革与统筹解决人口问题面临的几个问题,指出：统筹解决人口问题是目标,而计划生育综合改革是实现目标的手段。计划生育综合改革牵涉到体制改革与机制创新,体制改革是自上而下,而机制创新则是自下而上,体制改革与机制创新是先后有序、上下联动、协调推行的过程。同时就计划生育综合改革提出了若干建议。     

《海牙管辖权公约》草案所涉电子商务问题之建议

我国对海牙国际私法会议在制定《民商事管辖权及外国判决公约》关于电子商务问题时,应采取以下立场1.“网上履行的合同”具有特殊性,应主张由信息收到地法院管理;2.对涉及电子商务的“浪费者签订的合同”和“个人雇佣合同”的管辖权规则,应坚持传统的“保护消费者”和“保护弱者”的原则;3.网址不构成分支机构,不宜作为管辖权基础;4.对网上侵权暂不规定新的管辖权基础。