区域和谐与地方政府区际行政行为创新研究

区际行政行为研究,针对的是地方政府行为中与其他地区有互动关系,对其他地区具有影响作用的一部分行为,地方政府区际行政行为的合作与否,直接关系区域之间的和谐共荣。当前,扭曲的区际行政行为设立起无形的行政壁垒,已经成为制约区域经济一体化的瓶颈,弹奏着区域发展的不和谐音符。分析地方政府博弈心理,认为地方政府区际行政行为创新是促进区域和谐发展的有效"解决之道"。     

Robust models in probability sampling

In the estimation of a population mean or total from a random sample, certain methods based on linear models are known to be automatically design consistent, regardless of how well the underlying model describes the population. A sufficient condition is identified for this type of robustness to model failure; the condition, which we call 'internal bias calibration', relates to the combination of a model and the method used to fit it. Included among the internally bias-calibrated models, in addition to the aforementioned linear models, are certain canonical link generalized linear models and nonparametric regressions constructed from them by a particular style of local likelihood fitting. Other models can often be made robust by using a suboptimal fitting method. Thus the class of model-based, but design consistent, analyses is enlarged to include more realistic models for certain types of survey variable such as binary indicators and counts. Particular applications discussed are the estimation of the size of a population subdomain, as arises in tax auditing for example, and the estimation of a bootstrap tail probability.     

酒店管理专业“订单式”培养模式研究——新建地方本科院校培养模式改革探索之一

新建的地方本科院校在激烈的市场竞争中怎样站稳脚跟,找到自己合适的生存和发展空间,是目前的当务之急。而良好的教学培养模式是其生存的基础,必须进行培养模式的改革和创新。"订单式"培养模式的建立是适合新建本科院校,尤其是这些院校的一些新建应用型专业的特点,对其进行研究和实施具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

The foundations of econometrics-are there any

The conclusions of alogically consistent economic theory which strictly adheres to Aristotle's axioms of logic are factually true if its sufficient conditions are all factually true. Alternatively, if a conclusion of such a theory is false, then at- least one of its assumptions is false. Unfortunately, the factual truth of sufficient conditions cannot be established because the problem of induction i s impossible t o solve. It is algo true that the falsity of a conclusion cannot be established in the presence of uncertainty. While the philosophy of instrumentalism applied to sufficient and logically consistent explanations may provide useful solutions to immediate practical problems, the principles of simplicity, parsimony and profligacy--all of them requiring conditional deductive arguments--are useless as criteria for model choice.     

地方工科院校环境艺术设计专业课程体系的优化研究

根据社会的需求及环境艺术设计学科的特点，利用地方工科院校的优势，研究适合地方工科院校环境艺术设计专业方向人才培养的课程体系，优化教学内容及实践教学手段，通过实践探索，完善并总结出切实可行的人才培养方案。     

Estimation of parameters in incomplete data models defined by dynamical systems

Parametric incomplete data models defined by ordinary differential equations (ODEs) are widely used in biostatistics to describe biological processes accurately. Their parameters are estimated on approximate models, whose regression functions are evaluated by a numerical integration method. Accurate and efficient estimations of these parameters are critical issues. This paper proposes parameter estimation methods involving either a stochastic approximation EM algorithm (SAEM) in the maximum likelihood estimation, or a Gibbs sampler in the Bayesian approach. Both algorithms involve the simulation of non-observed data with conditional distributions using Hastings–Metropolis (H–M) algorithms. A modified H–M algorithm, including an original local linearization scheme to solve the ODEs, is proposed to reduce the computational time significantly. The convergence on the approximate model of all these algorithms is proved. The errors induced by the numerical solving method on the conditional distribution, the likelihood and the posterior distribution are bounded. The Bayesian and maximum likelihood estimation methods are illustrated on a simulated pharmacokinetic nonlinear mixed-effects model defined by an ODE. Simulation results illustrate the ability of these algorithms to provide accurate estimates.     

Smoothing parameter selection in nonparametric regression using an improved Akaike information criterion

Many different methods have been proposed to construct nonparametric estimates of a smooth regression function, including local polynomial, (convolution) kernel and smoothing spline estimators. Each of these estimators uses a smoothing parameter to control the amount of smoothing performed on a given data set. In this paper an improved version of a criterion based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), termed AIC_C, is derived and examined as a way to choose the smoothing parameter. Unlike plug-in methods, AIC_C can be used to choose smoothing parameters for any linear smoother, including local quadratic and smoothing spline estimators. The use of AIC_C avoids the large variability and tendency to undersmooth (compared with the actual minimizer of average squared error) seen when other 'classical' approaches (such as generalized cross-validation (GCV) or the AIC) are used to choose the smoothing parameter. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrate that the AIC_C-based smoothing parameter is competitive with a plug-in method (assuming that one exists) when the plug-in method works well but also performs well when the plug-in approach fails or is unavailable.     

宏观调控权纵向配置研究——以宏观调控法为视角

宏观调控权纵向配置的观点众多,主流观点多认为中央享有宏观调控权,但其中颇多疏漏。从理论结合实践的维度出发,因可得出宏观调控权的纵向配置应是中央和地方共享宏观调控权。在此基础之上,初步构建出中央与地方宏观调控权配置的体系。     

A class of local likelihood methods and near-parametric asymptotics

The local maximum likelihood estimate θ^ _t of a parameter in a statistical model f ( x , θ) is defined by maximizing a weighted version of the likelihood function which gives more weight to observations in the neighbourhood of t . The paper studies the sense in which f ( t , θ^ _t ) is closer to the true distribution g ( t ) than the usual estimate f ( t , θ^) is. Asymptotic results are presented for the case in which the model misspecification becomes vanishingly small as the sample size tends to ∞. In this setting, the relative entropy risk of the local method is better than that of maximum likelihood. The form of optimum weights for the local likelihood is obtained and illustrated for the normal distribution.     

大理国的乌蛮

从人口数量和分布区域看,乌蛮是大理国的主体民族,在大理国时正经历着以氏族(姓)为基础的社会组织向更高阶段的社会组织"部"发展,研究大理国境内的乌蛮和乌蛮到底有多少个"部",以及乌蛮在大理国境内静态和动态的地理分布及其变化,可以达到拓展乌蛮源流史研究的目的,进而丰富民族史学的学科内涵。