坚持稳中求进 确保经济平稳增长——2012上半年上海经济形势分析

2012年以来,世界经济复苏减缓,市场需求明显不足,全球产能过剩压力加剧,经济运行风险进一步加大,未来发展前景难以确定。我国经济下行压力也明显加大,未来经济增长面临产能过剩、财政收入下滑、就业压力增大、国际游资冲击等负面影响。上海结构调整取得新的进展,预计全年经济增幅合理上升,但在经济运行中需要特别关注就业形势、小微企业、房地产市场、消费市场、区县经济增长等方面因素。应继续按照"稳增长"与"调结构"相互促进的要求,制定和出台促进经济稳定增长的地方性政策措施,重点是做好中央和上海已有各项政策的落实工作。     

Who are the active and central actors in the ‘rising civil society’ in Mexico?

The debate about the rise of civil society in Mexico suggests that the processes of political and economic liberalization are multiple and uneven and, thus, have different and contradictory effects on different social groups. This study takes such arguments into account and examines the nature of collective identities and social networks that are more likely to be mobilized in the rising civil society. Who, with what types of social networks and identities, are the active actors in this rising civil society in Mexico? This study also attempts to identify the central actors who take an active part in multi-sector coalitions. As such a broad coalition often leaves profound effects on politics and society, it is vital to ask which actors are likely to take an important step toward multi-sector coalition making. Using a catalog of 1797 protest campaigns collected from three Mexican newspapers between 1964 and 2000, event frequency analysis is employed to find active actors and social network analysis – blockmodel method and degree centrality measure – is applied to uncover central actors. The analyses reveal that while workers, peasants, or students continue to be very active, the centrality of these actors in contentious networks and coalitions has not increased. New central actors in the rising civil society turn out to be civic associations and NGOs formed around single issues, such as environment, retirement, and human rights. When a multi-sector coalition occurs in contemporary Mexico, NGOs and civic associations are likely to play a crucial role in it.     

Does Higher Education Cause Religious Decline?: A Longitudinal Analysis of the Within‐ and Between‐Person Effects of Higher Education on Religiosity

Although there is ample empirical evidence of the associations between higher education and various aspects of religiosity, the causal mechanisms producing these associations remain unclear. I use four waves of longitudinal data, with respondents ranging in age from 13 to 29, to model the within‐ and between‐person effects of higher education on several measures of religiosity. The results show that earning a bachelor's degree is associated with within‐person declines in some but not all measured aspects of religiosity, which partially supports the argument that higher education causes religious decline. The results also suggest that those predisposed to attending religious services self‐select into higher education, that relatively religious youth in general self‐select into nonelite colleges, and that those with low levels of religious belief self‐select into elite universities. These findings further understanding of the associations between social class and religion, particularly the causal effects of higher education.     

Whatever Happened to Drama? A Configurational–Comparative Analysis of Genre Trajectory in American Cinema, 1946–2013

Although usually conceived of and studied as individual types, genres are frequently combined in practice. This research examines how genres are combined in popular American films, and how the popularity of particular combinations changed between 1946 and 2013. Distinguishing between “contextual genres” (which identify a film's subject matter) and “affective genres” (which identify a film's intent), we find marked differences between the postwar and blockbuster eras of the Hollywood film industry. The blockbuster era exhibits less generic diversity than the earlier postwar era. Furthermore, the popular postwar‐era films dealt with serious subjects and were set in realistic settings. The blockbuster era replaced these with intense, nonrealistic films. We also find that the relationship between contextual and affective genres changes within industry eras, with affective genres dominating at the beginning of new periods and the popularity of contextual genres growing as the period progresses.     

Pure Gold for Broken Bodies: Discursive Techniques Constructing Milk Banking and Peer Milk Sharing in U.S. News

Technological advances provide increased ability to transfer human tissues—blood, organs, milk—from one body to another. This article analyzes mechanisms of reality construction in U.S. news to construct shared human breast milk. Articles used typifications and human interest stories to convey participants as victims, lay heroes, and villains. Milk banking was portrayed as institutionally integrated through associations, expert testimonies, and formalized procedures, making banked milk “pure gold.” Peer sharing was portrayed as institutionally opposed through institutional warnings, expert testimonies, informal procedures, and hypothetical atrocities, making peer milk “fool's gold.” Findings suggest that “biovalue” of human milk is interconnected with institutional processing.     

Looking for homogeneous groups of respondents and nonrespondents using latent class analysis

Concerns about decreasing response rates have led to many nonresponse studies. Unfortunately, usually only a limited amount of data is available on nonrespondents. Linking administrative data makes information available on all the sampled units including nonrespondents. Statistics Netherlands has constructed a database in which several administrative records and several surveys are connected. In this explorative study we use this dataset to look for homogenous groups of respondents and nonrespondents in survey research using latent class cluster analysis. Latent class techniques can provide insight into the problem of selective nonresponse and currently under-represented societal groups. We identify four different latent classes in a recent Dutch survey and replicate the findings for the same survey conducted 4 years later. Two of the types of sampled units have above-average response rates and the other two have below-average response rates. We also evaluate various latent class models with other response outcomes to gain insight into the contact and cooperation process.     

Bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model: estimation and diagnostic analysis

In this paper, we discuss the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, in which we have modeled the dependence structure of bivariate survival data through the use of frailty models. Specifically, we propose the bivariate model Birnbaum-Saunders with the following frailty distributions: gamma, positive stable and logarithmic series. We present a study of inference and diagnostic analysis for the proposed model, more concisely, are proposed a diagnostic analysis based in local influence and residual analysis to assess the fit model, as well as, to detect influential observations. In this regard, we derived the normal curvatures of local influence under different perturbation schemes and we performed some simulation studies for assessing the potential of residuals to detect misspecification in the systematic component, the presence in the stochastic component of the model and to detect outliers. Finally, we apply the methodology studied to real data set from recurrence in times of infections of 38 kidney patients using a portable dialysis machine, we analyzed these data considering independence within the pairs and using the bivariate Birnbaum-Saunders accelerated lifetime model, so that we could make a comparison and verify the importance of modeling dependence within the times of infection associated with the same patient.     

诚实信用原则的博弈分析

诚实信用从道德走入法律,经历了从罗马法到现代法的演进,发展为民商法的基本原则。在我国市场经济建设的过程中出现了信用缺失的现象,现代社会需要信用经济,信用经济需要法律保障。运用博弈论对诚实信用原则进行研究是一个全新的视角与方法,人们在博弈行为中进行策略选择,以实现利益最大化,影响人们选择诚信行为的因素是多方面的,根据博弈论的分析结果来进行法律制度设计将增强法律的针对性,是强化诚信原则、确立市场信用的重要手段。     

Regulation of Personal Social Services – The Israeli Experience

The current article explores the aspects of regulatory policy in the field of personal social services. In Israel, the government sets standards, and finances and oversees personal social services, while the services themselves are provided primarily by non‐governmental organizations. Based on a qualitative study we examined two questions. First, what characterizes the implementation of regulatory mechanisms in the field of personal social services in Israel? Second, how can we explain the outcomes of regulation in the personal social services in Israel? In a unique approach, we used the institutional analysis and development (IAD) framework to explore the regulatory practices implemented in community residences and hostels for people with intellectual disabilities and in after school programmes. The findings revealed that although there were implementation gaps in both cases, the IAD might improve our understanding of the nature and magnitude of these gaps. Furthermore, the insights gained may have implications for policymakers in their development of regulatory policy.