基于平衡轮换样本调查的季节调整方法研究

传统季节调整方法对时间序列数据进行季节调整时,往往假定误差项为白噪声,不考虑其序列相关关系。为了进行更准确地季节调整分析,本文从连续性抽样调查的角度出发,研究基于平衡轮换样本调查的抽样误差对季节调整的影响,建立一般化的季节调整模型,利用卡尔曼滤波进行参数估计,并从预测误差、误差方差等角度评价模型精度。最后以中国城镇住户调查采用的12～0平衡轮换模式为例,对考虑抽样误差结构特征的季节调整模型进行实证分析,验证这套季节调整方法的有效性。     

Ethnicity and Occupational Pension Membership in the UK

Reflecting a relatively low‐value Basic State Pension, occupational pensions have historically been a key aspect of pension protection within Britain. Existing research shows that minority ethnic groups are less likely to benefit from such pensions and are more likely to face poverty in later life, as a result of the interaction of their labour market participation and pension membership patterns. However, the lack of adequate data on ethnic minorities has so far prevented the direct comparison of different ethnic groups, as well as their comparison to the White British group. Using data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study, this article explores patterns of employment and the odds ratios of membership in an employer's pension scheme among working‐age individuals from minority ethnic groups and the White British population, taking into account factors not used by previous research, such as one's migration history and sector of employment (public/private). The analysis provides new empirical evidence confirming that ethnicity remains a strong determinant of one's pension protection prospects through being in paid work, being an employee and working for an employer who offers a pension scheme. However, once an individual is working for an employer offering a pension scheme, the effect of ethnicity on that person's odds of being a member of that scheme reduces, except among Pakistani and Bangladeshi individuals for whom the differentials remain. The article also provides evidence on the pension protection of Polish individuals, a relatively ‘new’ minority group in the UK.     

中央转移支付对地方财政支出的影响机制及实证分析

本文主要探讨中央转移支付如何通过影响地方政府财政支出,进而影响民生福祉。通过构建一种基于幸福经济学理论的一般均衡理论模型,并使用1997-2013年中国内地31个省域的空间面板数据,本文研究发现：地方财政支出长期存在增量预算特征;2007-2013年期间社会保障支出领域存在显著的粘蝇纸效应;地方财政对基本建设支出在1997-2006年期间存在显著的攀比之风,社会消费惯性则对2007年之后的社会保障支出存在正向激励;中央转移支付对地方财政支出行为的影响机制受空间因素影响较大,且在1997-2006年期间部分财政支出类型受非本省域的社会经济因素影响反而更强,但在2007年之后所有类型的财政支出普遍受到本省域的影响更为显著。     

A comparative study of the K-means algorithm and the normal mixture model for clustering: Bivariate homoscedastic case

The K-means algorithm and the normal mixture model method are two common clustering methods. The K-means algorithm is a popular heuristic approach which gives reasonable clustering results if the component clusters are ball-shaped. Currently, there are no analytical results for this algorithm if the component distributions deviate from the ball-shape. This paper analytically studies how the K-means algorithm changes its classification rule as the normal component distributions become more elongated under the homoscedastic assumption and compares this rule with that of the Bayes rule from the mixture model method. We show that the classification rules of both methods are linear, but the slopes of the two classification lines change in the opposite direction as the component distributions become more elongated. The classification performance of the K-means algorithm is then compared to that of the mixture model method via simulation. The comparison, which is limited to two clusters, shows that the K-means algorithm provides poor classification performances consistently as the component distributions become more elongated while the mixture model method can potentially, but not necessarily, take advantage of this change and provide a much better classification performance.     

Modelling long-term pan-European population change from 1870 to 2000 by using geographical information systems

Summary.  The paper presents work that creates a geographical information system database of European census data from 1870 to 2000. The database is integrated over space and time. Spatially it consists of regional level data for most of Europe; temporally it covers every decade from 1870 to 2000. Crucially the data have been interpolated onto the administrative units that were available in 2000, thus allowing contemporary population patterns to be understood in the light of the changes that have occurred since the late 19th century. The effect of interpolation error on the resulting estimates is explored. This database will provide a framework for much future analysis on long-term Europewide demographic processes over space and time.     

工资差异与区域创新能力的关系:基于1997-2007年中国省际面板数据的实证分析

基于中国31个省（市、区）1997-2007年职工平均工资、技术创新能力、人力资本和外商直接投资数据,运用面板数据变截距和变系数相关模型对工资差异的增长效应进行检验。检验结果表明：总体而言,一个地区的创新能力每提高1%,其职工平均工资就会提高0.18%左右;一些控制变量如人力资本、外商直接投资等对工资水平也具有显著为正的影响。     

论少数民族文学人类学批评生成的外部诱因与内在基础

少数民族文学人类学批评产生的外部诱因在于复数文化观的吁请、理论范式革新的要求,民族意识的反思和合法趣味归属的追求,都是与他者打交道的学问、都是一种观念的集合、都乐于追溯民间传统等则是其产生的六个内在基础。少数民族文学人类学批评的产生不仅是时代发展的客观需要,也是少数民族文学研究内在要求作用下的必然结果。     

中国大城市不同人群生育意愿的 变迁趋势及比较研究 ——以上海市为例

生育意愿研究有水平研究和趋势研究两个视角,后者更能反映人们观念的变迁,更能预判未来生育水平的变动。文章以上海市为例,采用横断历史元分析法(Cross-temporal meta-analysis),将1981年以来的30多年间上海市范围内开展的26项涉及居民生育意愿调查的结果串联起来,结合其中5项调查的个案数据分析,考察我国大城市不同社会经济特征人群的生育意愿纵向变化趋势并进行子人群间的比较。研究发现20世纪80年代以来上海户籍城乡居民的生育意愿均不断减弱并且二者逐渐趋同,生育意愿的"城乡之别"已然消失;在沪外省市流动人口的生育意愿强于户籍人口,"内外之分"仍然存在,但也显示出未来有趋同的可能性;独生子女与非独生子女的生育意愿比较显示户籍人口中独生子女与非独生子女的生育意愿差异极小,流动人口中非独生子女的生育意愿略强于独生子女;从不同文化程度和收入水平的人群比较来看,文化程度越高的户籍人口生育意愿越强,流动人口的生育意愿随文化程度的提高呈现"两头高、中间低"的特征,无论是户籍人口还是流动人口,高收入人群的生育意愿均相对较高;但是无论哪个人群的平均意愿子女数均已低于2个孩子。     

School suspension and social selection: Labeling,network change,and adolescent,academic achievement

The growing body of research detailing the pronounced effects of criminal stigma on inequality in the US underscores the importance of labeling theory. In spite of the renewed interest in labeling, little research has evaluated the theoretical mechanisms underlying the theory. Drawing on the labeling perspective, this article evaluates mechanisms underlying the relationship between school punishment and reductions in adolescent academic achievement. It uses recent innovations in longitudinal network analysis to examine the consequences of school punishment as a dynamic interplay of labeling, network selection, and group influence. Results indicate that school punishment facilitates selection into academically underperforming peer networks and that this change in network composition is largely responsible for the association between school punishment and reductions in adolescent academic achievement.     

Change we can believe in: Comparing longitudinal network models on consistency,interpretability and predictive power

While several models for analysing longitudinal network data have been proposed, their main differences, especially regarding the treatment of time, have not been discussed extensively in the literature. However, differences in treatment of time strongly impact the conclusions that can be drawn from data. In this article we compare auto-regressive network models using the example of TERGMs – a temporal extensions of ERGMs – and process-based models using SAOMs as an example. We conclude that the TERGM has, in contrast to the ERGM, no consistent interpretation on tie-level probabilities, as well as no consistent interpretation on processes of network change. Further, parameters in the TERGM are strongly dependent on the interval length between two time-points. Neither limitation is true for process-based network models such as the SAOM. Finally, both compared models perform poorly in out-of-sample prediction compared to trivial predictive models.