Constants and variables: Pareto's asymmetric distribution curve

The article sets out the classic Paretian theory of income distribution. As it does so, it seeks to highlight the constant elements in the human faculties represented, at aggregate level, by the invariability and persistence of the asymmetric income curve, and the variable elements connected with the same curve and manifest in upward and downward mobility – what Pareto calls ‘circulation’. The two theorems arising from Pareto's discovery constitute a specific theory of development which has been confirmed from two points of view: in the positive sense of development when – as in the West – the second theorem has been applied (also independently of Pareto) with the connected theory of the entrepreneur and innovation in democratic regimes; but also in the negative sense of underdevelopment, with the destruction of wealth and the consequent general impoverishment, when expropriation policies have been implemented in despotic regimes, or excessive taxation in others.     

Nonparametric Kernel Methods with Errors‐in‐Variables: Constructing Estimators,Computing them,and Avoiding Common Mistakes

Estimating a curve nonparametrically from data measured with error is a difficult problem that has been studied by many authors. Constructing a consistent estimator in this context can sometimes be quite challenging, and in this paper we review some of the tools that have been developed in the literature for kernel‐based approaches, founded on the Fourier transform and a more general unbiased score technique. We use those tools to rederive some of the existing nonparametric density and regression estimators for data contaminated by classical or Berkson errors, and discuss how to compute these estimators in practice. We also review some mistakes made by those working in the area, and highlight a number of problems with an existing R package decon .     

我国经济有效增长研究--基于自然资本库兹涅茨曲线的经济学分析

有效经济增长不同于传统集约增长,是经济增长与自然资本相协调的增长范畴.本文在对自然资本库兹涅茨曲线内涵进行新的概括基础上,展开经济学分析,指出它对谋求经济增长的发展中国家的启示和局限性,并给出我国实现经济有效增长和新型工业化道路的政策选择.     

Conditional expectation determination based on the J-process using Malliavin calculus applied to pricing American options

The aim of our paper is to elaborate a theoretical methodology based on the Malliavin calculus to calculate the following conditional expectation (P_t(X_t)|(X_s)) for s≤t where the only state variable follows a J-process [Jerbi Y. A new closed-form solution as an extension of the Black—Scholes formula allowing smile curve plotting. Quant Finance. 2013; Online First Article. doi:10.1080/14697688.2012.762458]. The theoretical results are applied to the American option pricing, consisting of an extension of the work of Bally et al. [Pricing and hedging American options by Monte Carlo methods using a Malliavin calculus approach. Monte Carlo Methods Appl. 2005;11-2:97–133], as well as the J-process (with additional parameters λ and θ) is an extension of the Wiener process. The introduction of the aforesaid parameters induces skewness and kurtosis effects, i.e. smile curve allowing to fit with the reality of financial market. In his work Jerbi [Jerbi Y. A new closed-form solution as an extension of the Black–-Scholes formula allowing smile curve plotting. Quant Finance. 2013; Online First Article. doi:10.1080/14697688.2012.762458] showed that the use of the J-process is equivalent to the use of a stochastic volatility model based on the Wiener process as in Heston's. The present work consists on extending this result to the American options. We studied the influence of the parameters λ and θ on the American option price and we find empirical results fitting with the options theory.     

Reducing Customer Dissatisfaction: How Important is Learning to Reduce Service Failure?

As service failures are inevitable, firms must be prepared to recover and learn from service failures. Yet, the majority of customers are still dissatisfied with the way firms resolve their complaints. Can learning to reduce service failures reduce customer dissatisfaction, and to what extent are such reductions sustainable? Previous research showed that organizational learning curves for customer dissatisfaction (i) follow a U‐shaped function of operating experience and (ii) are heterogeneous across firms. In this paper, I tease out where the U‐shaped learning‐curve effect and learning‐curve heterogeneity originate: service failure or customers' propensity to complain with a third party given the occurrence of a service failure. Using quarterly data for nine major US airlines over 11 years, I find that the U‐shaped learning‐curve effect and the learning‐curve heterogeneity originate in the propensity to complain. In the long term, reductions in service failure did not translate in sustainable reductions in customer dissatisfaction. Customers' propensity to complain eventually went up. Managing the propensity to complain provides more opportunity for a firm to distinguish itself from competitors.     

区域经济增长与环境污染关系的实证分析——以安徽省为例

通过对安徽省1995—2009年期间经济增长指标和三类环境污染指标的选取,以计量分析方法考察安徽省经济增长和各类环境污染指标之间的作用机制,结果显示安徽省三类环境污染指标的环境库兹涅茨曲线没有呈现倒U型,而是随着经济增长波动较大,呈现N型等关系曲线。针对分析结果,从优化地区产业结构、增大地方财政支持力度、加强区域环境污染监控与治理三个方面提出对安徽省经济可持续发展的对策建议。     

论公共品需求曲线的推导

传统的公共品需求理论并没有考虑公共品需求曲线的具体推导.事实上,由于和私人品性质的不同,公共品需求曲线的推导也与私人品需求曲线的推导不同,并且要复杂得多.因此,必须在充分考虑偏好表露、偏好甄别、偏好表露激励、偏好传导和预算约束等环节的影响后,运用基本的经济学方法,才能够大致描绘出一条一般的公共品需求曲线.     

从辩证逻辑视角看微积分

在当今科学哲学界,虽然辩证法派属于少数派,但作者却愿意加入这一行列。作者立足于数学上公认的事实材料,用辩证逻辑的流动范畴的眼光来分析微积分主要的基本概念的辩证本性,并且对微积分与代数、代数与算术之间的关系,和辩证逻辑与形式逻辑之间的关系,进行对应与类比,从而在辩证思维的语境中揭示了数学中所隐含的辩证逻辑内涵。     

Nonparametric covariate adjustment for receiver operating characteristic curves

The accuracy of a diagnostic test is typically characterized using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. Summarizing indexes such as the area under the ROC curve (AUC) are used to compare different tests as well as to measure the difference between two populations. Often additional information is available on some of the covariates which are known to influence the accuracy of such measures. The authors propose nonparametric methods for covariate adjustment of the AUC. Models with normal errors and possibly non‐normal errors are discussed and analyzed separately. Nonparametric regression is used for estimating mean and variance functions in both scenarios. In the model that relaxes the assumption of normality, the authors propose a covariate‐adjusted Mann–Whitney estimator for AUC estimation which effectively uses available data to construct working samples at any covariate value of interest and is computationally efficient for implementation. This provides a generalization of the Mann–Whitney approach for comparing two populations by taking covariate effects into account. The authors derive asymptotic properties for the AUC estimators in both settings, including asymptotic normality, optimal strong uniform convergence rates and mean squared error (MSE) consistency. The MSE of the AUC estimators was also assessed in smaller samples by simulation. Data from an agricultural study were used to illustrate the methods of analysis. The Canadian Journal of Statistics 38:27–46; 2010 © 2009 Statistical Society of Canada     

Optimal Composite Markers for Time‐Dependent Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves with Censored Survival Data

Abstract. To increase the predictive abilities of several plasma biomarkers on the coronary artery disease (CAD)‐related vital statuses over time, our research interest mainly focuses on seeking combinations of these biomarkers with the highest time‐dependent receiver operating characteristic curves. An extended generalized linear model (EGLM) with time‐varying coefficients and an unknown bivariate link function is used to characterize the conditional distribution of time to CAD‐related death. Based on censored survival data, two non‐parametric procedures are proposed to estimate the optimal composite markers, linear predictors in the EGLM model. Estimation methods for the classification accuracies of the optimal composite markers are also proposed. In the article we establish theoretical results of the estimators and examine the corresponding finite‐sample properties through a series of simulations with different sample sizes, censoring rates and censoring mechanisms. Our optimization procedures and estimators are further shown to be useful through an application to a prospective cohort study of patients undergoing angiography.