An Integrated Risk Assessment Model of Township‐Scaled Land Subsidence Based on an Evidential Reasoning Algorithm and Fuzzy Set Theory

Land subsidence risk assessment (LSRA) is a multi‐attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem and is often characterized by both quantitative and qualitative attributes with various types of uncertainty. Therefore, the problem needs to be modeled and analyzed using methods that can handle uncertainty. In this article, we propose an integrated assessment model based on the evidential reasoning (ER) algorithm and fuzzy set theory. The assessment model is structured as a hierarchical framework that regards land subsidence risk as a composite of two key factors: hazard and vulnerability. These factors can be described by a set of basic indicators defined by assessment grades with attributes for transforming both numerical data and subjective judgments into a belief structure. The factor‐level attributes of hazard and vulnerability are combined using the ER algorithm, which is based on the information from a belief structure calculated by the Dempster‐Shafer (D‐S) theory, and a distributed fuzzy belief structure calculated by fuzzy set theory. The results from the combined algorithms yield distributed assessment grade matrices. The application of the model to the Xixi‐Chengnan area, China, illustrates its usefulness and validity for LSRA. The model utilizes a combination of all types of evidence, including all assessment information—quantitative or qualitative, complete or incomplete, and precise or imprecise—to provide assessment grades that define risk assessment on the basis of hazard and vulnerability. The results will enable risk managers to apply different risk prevention measures and mitigation planning based on the calculated risk states.     

作为非政府组织的美国智库与公共政策

智库是指那些独立于政府、利益团体以及政党等力量从事公共政策研究的组织。它具有非政府性、非营利性、非党派性、客观中立性以及中介性等特征。美国的传统智库包括学术型智库和合同型智库,而六七十代产生的当代智库大多数具有意识形态性质,属于倡导型智库。美国智库在公共政策领域具有很重要的影响力,在政策研究、政策倡导、政策网络、政策评估中都发挥着重要作用。     

‘Bringing coals to Newcastle’? Human rights,civil rights and social movements in New York City

In this article we examine the encounter between global human rights ideas and domestic discourses of civil rights and social justice, focusing on processes of translation and adaptation of women's human rights in two ethnographic sites in New York City. The first site is a citywide coalition working for the adoption of a New York City human rights ordinance. The second site is an advocacy organization working on domestic violence issues. We find that the local adoption of human rights in New York City – the ‘domestication’ of human rights – takes place in two central sites: law and social movement. We further find that the process of translation takes place unevenly in the two sites, and it is driven primarily by the actors, mechanisms and technologies in the social movement arena. Overall, we witness the emergence of a domestic human rights movement as a new counter‐hegemonic space, characterized by multiplicity in meanings, ideological heterogeneity and ambivalence from those engaged in its construction.     

冷战后美国中东战略的调整与伊朗核问题

新一届美国政府成立后,其对伊朗核问题的立场成为国际社会广泛关注的热点问题。伊朗核问题解决的方式,主要取决于美伊双方,但在全球化的今天,美国和伊朗走向直接对抗甚至爆发战争的可能性越来越小,双方更可能以全方位外交谈判的方式来解决美伊之间的矛盾。     

中美中东石油关系解析

作为居世界前两位的石油进口和消费大国,中美都离不开中东石油。中美在中东必然因石油而发生关系,这种关系具有双重性——事实上的竞争与合作关系。在中东石油领域,如果两国展开过度竞争甚至恶性竞争,双方可能走向“零和”或两败俱伤的“负数”结局;如果两国开展对话、合作或实现竞争下的合作,则完全可以在中东石油甚至其他能源领域实现互利双赢。     

The influence of acculturation level and family relationships on quality of life among U.S. Chinese older adults

ABSTRACT

The present study examined the influence of acculturation level and family relationships (i.e., positive family support and negative family strain) on quality of life (QOL), using the data from the Population Study of ChINese Elderly (PINE) in Chicago (N = 3159). Controlling for sociodemographic variables and health status, it was found that individuals’ acculturation level and positive family support were positively related to QOL, whereas negative family strain was negatively associated with QOL. More importantly, higher acculturation levels were associated with increased protective effects of positive family support and reduced risk effects of negative family strain on QOL among U.S. Chinese older adults.     

Pure Gold for Broken Bodies: Discursive Techniques Constructing Milk Banking and Peer Milk Sharing in U.S. News

Technological advances provide increased ability to transfer human tissues—blood, organs, milk—from one body to another. This article analyzes mechanisms of reality construction in U.S. news to construct shared human breast milk. Articles used typifications and human interest stories to convey participants as victims, lay heroes, and villains. Milk banking was portrayed as institutionally integrated through associations, expert testimonies, and formalized procedures, making banked milk “pure gold.” Peer sharing was portrayed as institutionally opposed through institutional warnings, expert testimonies, informal procedures, and hypothetical atrocities, making peer milk “fool's gold.” Findings suggest that “biovalue” of human milk is interconnected with institutional processing.     

借鉴美国经验,促进广州大数据产业发展

基于海量数据资源的挖掘和应用催生的大数据产业,是新一代信息领域的重点产业及大数据时代的基础支撑产业,是全球下一个发展创新、角力竞争、提高生产力的战略性产业。目前,国内外大数据产业标准和产业格局尚未形成,这是广州促进大数据产业跨越发展的难得机会。广州应借鉴美国等发达国家经验,把握大数据时代到来的机遇,高度重视和超前谋划,整合资源合力加快广州大数据产业跨越发展,抢占战略性新兴产业发展的制高点。     

Aggregation and Optimization with State‐Dependent Pricing: A Comment

A key argument in Caplin and Leahy (1997) states that the correlation between monetary shocks and output is falling in the variance of the money supply. We demonstrate that this conclusion depends on solving for the correlation in the nonstationary state of the model. In the stationary state, that correlation is initially rising.     

基于MA S 的群决策支持系统研究

群决策支持系统(GDSS) 与传统的决策支持系统(DSS) 在体系结构和工作方式上有着较 大的差异. 在网络环境中, 组织的决策需要一种开放的GDSS 体系结构和协作的工作方式. 本 文提出一种基于MA S 的GDSS 体系结构, 以及在这种体系结构下的协同决策的模型. 在此基 础上开发了一个GDSS 的原型系统, 并对今后的研究方向进行了展望.