就业迁移的人力资本差别效应——以长三角为例

随着我国城市化的快速发展,人口迁移流动在城市社会生活中的影响日益突出。人口迁移流动必然引起“人”自身所拥有的人力资本的动态配置。文章主要利用2000年全国第五次人口普查迁移数据等有关数据资料,分析长三角16城市就业迁移的人力资本差别效应。研究发现,就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本具有显著的差别效应,并且长三角内的就业迁移与长三角外的就业迁移对长三角各城市人力资本提升或稀释效应也有明显差别。研究还发现,就业迁移导致长三角人力资本城际差异缩小,尤以上海与其他15城市的差距缩小更为明显。     

Evaluating unintended program outcomes through Ripple Effects Mapping (REM): Application of REM using grounded theory

Several evaluation models exist for investigating unintended outcomes, including goal-free and systems evaluation. Yet methods for collecting and analyzing data on unintended outcomes remain under-utilized. Ripple Effects Mapping (REM) is a promising qualitative evaluation method with a wide range of program planning and evaluation applications. In situations where program results are likely to occur over time within complex settings, this method is useful for uncovering both intended and unintended outcomes. REM applies an Appreciative Inquiry facilitation technique to engage stakeholders in visually mapping sequences of program outcomes. Although it has been used to evaluate community development and health promotion initiatives, further methodological guidance for applying REM is still needed. The purpose of this paper is to contribute to the methodological development of evaluating unintended outcomes and extend the foundations of REM by describing steps for integrating it with grounded theory.     

Explaining political trust among African Americans: Examining demographic, media, and social capital and social networks effects

African Americans routinely have lower levels of political trust compared with whites. Explanations of their political trust remain rather unexamined. Using data taken from the 1996 National Black Election Study, this analysis examines three models to test how demographic characteristics, the media, and social capital and social networks influence political trust among African Americans. The results show modest support for the models. However, social location as measured by demographic characteristics is most important for explaining the political trust of African Americans.     

Does Security Impact E‐procurement Performance? Testing a Model of Direct and Moderated Effects

Despite the widespread adoption of e‐procurement and the critical role of information security in these situations, academic research examining the relationship between information security and e‐procurement performance has been surprisingly minimal. This study represents an interdisciplinary approach to present and test a theoretical model that links security in e‐procurement processes to e‐procurement performance. E‐procurement performance is measured as a combination of cost savings, order quality, and satisfaction of fulfillment as perceived by buyers. The model also posits that two aspects of the procurement process will enhance the value of security in e‐procurement, namely, process complexity and process interdependence. We empirically examine these relationships using data collected from procurement managers. Our results have important implications for managing the e‐procurement process.     

西部少数民族地区承接东部地区产业转移问题研究

本文结合我国西部少数民族地区承接东部地区产业转移的现状,总结出目前我国西部少数民族地区承接产业转移的主要模式,并在此基础上剖析西部少数民族地区承接东部地区产业转移的经济效应,最后提出了若干对策建议。     

Random balanced resampling: A new method for estimating variance components in unbalanced designs

Variance components in factorial designs with balanced data are commonly estimated by equating mean squares to expected mean squares. For unbalanced data, the usual extensions of this approach are the Henderson methods, which require formulas that are rather involved. Alternatively, maximum likelihood estimation based on normality has been proposed. Although the algorithm for maximum likelihood is computationally complex, programs exist in some statistical packages. This article introduces a simpler method, that of creating a balanced data set by resampling from the original one. Revised formulas for expected mean squares are presented for the two-way case; they are easily generalized to larger factorial designs. The results of a number of simulation studies indicate that, in certain types of designs, the proposed method has performance advantages over both the Henderson Method I and maximum likelihood estimators.     

新型农村合作医疗制度建设绩效评价

文章以分析新农合建设模式与目标为基点,利用2009年中部四省12个县的调查数据,从农民的“主观感受”和制度实施的“客观效果”两个层面,对新农合建设绩效进行了分析和评价。研究发现,新农合的福利性得到了大多数农民的认同,但补偿率较低,农民满意率也较低;新农合的福利效应比较明显,但保障能力有待提高;新农合存在的主要问题,不是宏观制度设计而是微观运行机制的问题。提升新农合建设绩效,应合理调整起付线、封顶线和补偿比例以提高农民的受益率;加强监督管理,重点防止医疗供方道德风险;加大财政投入,在精算的基础上扩大筹资规模,重在基层医疗机构基础设施建设和人才培养等。     

FDI对中国出口贸易的影响与区域差异实证研究

外商直接投资和出口增长对一个国家或地区经济增长起着重要作用,是国家或地区经济发展的重要推动因素之一。对FDI与出口贸易影响程度进行实证研究,将我国各省市根据区域划分为东、中、西三个横截面,利用2001至2009年九年数据建立面板数据模型,集中对我国FDI与出口间关系,东、中、西三地区FDI与出口关系进行实证研究,比较不同区域影响程度。     

马修·阿诺德的“试金石”理论

本文认为,阿诺德的＂试金石＂理论体现了其古典主义倾向,并且与其独特的文学功能观紧密相关。     

中国区域能源消费的决定因素及空间溢出效应———基于空间面板数据计量经济模型的实证

应用空间面板计量经济模型分析了中国各省域的能源消费行为、决定因素及其空间溢出效应.研究显示,我国各个省域的能源需求主要由产业结构、经济增长和人口增长等因素决定,价格机制在调控能源需求方面还未能发挥出应有的作用.应用空间滞后面板计量经济模型和空间误差面板计量经济模型对区域能源消费行为的空间溢出效应进行分析检验证实:邻近区域的能源消费行为未能影响到本地区的能源消费,但能源利用效率等被忽略的因素对邻近区域的能源消费行为具有很强的溢出效应.